MK Crowd Calender

[sageandbelle]

Hey y’all, I’m heading to MK this Saturday the 26th and undercover tourist’s crowd calendar currently says it’ll be a 6/10. Has anyone been to MK on a 6/10 day and can describe the crowd levels to me? Thank you!

 

[TangledHairDon'tCare]

Touring plans shows this Sat at MK a 9/10 (I was tracking it because we had a long weekend planned that was canceled). I would expect heavy crowds and long lines, but you can manage it with a good plan! Do you have fastpasses selected? What time are you planning on arriving?

 

[sageandbelle]

Touring plans shows this Sat at MK a 9/10 (I was tracking it because we had a long weekend planned that was canceled). I would expect heavy crowds and long lines, but you can manage it with a good plan! Do you have fastpasses selected? What time are you planning on arriving?

Is one crowd calendar more reliable than another? How could they be so different on how they scaled it? A 6 and a 9 is such a big difference. We’re scheduling FP the day of and probably won’t get there until 10-ish

 

[TangledHairDon'tCare]

Is one crowd calendar more reliable than another? How could they be so different on how they scaled it? A 6 and a 9 is such a big difference. We’re scheduling FP the day of and probably won’t get there until 10-ish

Do you have the ability to schedule them earlier?

There was a huge spike in crowd predictions for January, I don't know if UT adjusted the way that TP did. I haven't followed it that closely, but there were some threads about it.

 

[TangledHairDon'tCare]

But to answer your original question, I've been to MK on days that TP saw as 6 or 7 and I found the crowds to be totally manageable. We got everything done that we wanted to do, but that included making FP at 60 days out. I don't have any experience with making them day of so hopefully somebody else will chime in!

 

[Klayfish]

How could they be so different on how they scaled it?

Because they have absolutely no clue, they're just complete stabs in the dark. Don't bother even looking at them. Go and have fun. MK is the almost always the most crowded park, and the weekends are generally busier. It'll be crowded, just expect that and you'll be fine.

 

[sageandbelle]

Because they have absolutely no clue, they're just complete stabs in the dark. Don't bother even looking at them. Go and have fun. MK is the almost always the most crowded park, and the weekends are generally busier. It'll be crowded, just expect that and you'll be fine.

Lol I love this! I’ve been stressing about it so hard, I guess I shouldn’t worry about it anymore. Thank you!

 

[JennyDrake]

Rope drop is your best friend!

 

[MousetersInc]

Is one crowd calendar more reliable than another? How could they be so different on how they scaled it?

I can't speak to which is more accurate, but touringplans is trying to put some serious algorithmic power behind it. For one thing, they often show that real-time wait times (e.g. reported by users of their app) are significantly less than official Disney ones (makes sense; Disney would rather have "You said 120 minutes but it was only 100!" than the opposite). For Spring Break, e.g., touringplans actually takes into account the schedules of Florida school systems.
On the other hand, as a developer, I know trying to make smart algorithms can sometimes bite you in the but. "It's Spring Break, so that's increased crowds. But it's EMH at a different park, so that's decreased. But it's good weather, so that's increased." Which one weights more heavily? Once you start messing with it you can come out with some weird results.
But knowing that they're actually making an effort to be scientific about it, and doing so with paid staff, makes me inclined to take their numbers more seriously.

 

[EdnaMarieMode]

I have been at MK on days rated as a 6 and days rated as a 3 and felt no real noticeable difference. Wait times were approximately the same for most attractions on either day. I don't put much stock in any of them at this point. After many years and many trips, it's pretty consistent. Weekends are busier, MK is almost always the busiest of the 4 parks, mornings are lower waits for rides (except for popular rope-drop favorites where lines build quickly but still have shorter waits than they will for most of the day), there will always be crowds and waits.

 

[_19disnA]

^^ I agree, all of those 3rd party sites use various 'formulas' based on historical trends to project future crowds. That is why each formula yields different results. They can use whatever algorithm they like, but even Disney doesn't know on any given day which parks people will attend, how many from the local area with annual passes will just decide to show up and how many staying at non-disney hotels will visit which park. Any of those future estimates for specific parks and then individual rides are best treated as wild guesses.

Not sure of the value of real-time waits since once you are at the park, you can also see for yourself how long a line for a specific ride is. Fastpass for the traditionally most popular rides still makes the most sense.

 

[Louie7080]

For me, when I've been at a park with a CL of a 10 it felt different than a 7, though I agree that between 3 or 4 and 6 and 7 there wasn't a huge difference from what I remember for much of the day - could be that hours are shortened a lot when Disney thinks crowds will be lower so people may not be going back for breaks and not leaving for the day till the park closes.

 

[CAQDaddy]

I've been to MK on Saturdays at several different times of year (including late January) and it's always feels pretty busy to me. I would strongly encourage you to get there early to rope drop. You can accomplish so much in those first few hours and then use your FP's for later in the day.
If you go into it expecting large crowds then if they're a little lighter you will be pleasantly surprised. Have fun!

 

[TangledHairDon'tCare]

How were the crowds OP?