May Announcement?

[lockedoutlogic]

That was a typo..."kinda common sense"...my bad.

I'll follow along on this blog for research purposes...
What is more likely?

That its written by a current/former cm or local orlandite that follows the parks and fancies themselves journalists? (Which is almost a guarantee If they upload pictures on a weekly if not daily basis)

Or imbedded reporter or perhaps even hidden Disney plant that figured things out in advance and throws them up on a website that hardly anyone would find?

My gut leans different that yours on this.

But I'll give it sits due...even though "guaranteed may 1st announcement of something major" have been thrown out hundreds if not thousands of times and rarely come to fruition.

I hope they do build...we shall see

 

[LaurenT]

That was a typo..."kinda common sense"...my bad.

I'll follow along on this blog for research purposes...
What is more likely?

That its written by a current/former cm or local orlandite that follows the parks and fancies themselves journalists? (Which is almost a guarantee If they upload pictures on a weekly if not daily basis)

Or imbedded reporter or perhaps even hidden Disney plant that figured things out in advance and throws them up on a website that hardly anyone would find?

My gut leans different that yours on this.

But I'll give it sits due...even though "guaranteed may 1st announcement of something major" have been thrown out hundreds if not thousands of times and rarely come to fruition.

I hope they do build...we shall see

He doesn't claim to be an insider or a journalist. He's a blogger. He's a really good blogger. His recommendations for which parks to go to and how to time your day are about as good as you can get without a crystal ball. I visit between two and four times a year and I always consider his advice when planning my trip.
I'm sure he's an Orlando native...he's in the parks almost every day. I'm also sure he does not use an I-Pad to take his photos. Photography is a pretty serious hobby of his and he goes into a lot of detail about his pictures.
He is not guaranteeing anything. Here's the exact comment that is being discussed here (since you obviously didn't read it before deciding who and what this guy is):

"There has been some amount of hate leveled in the general direction of the bathrooms. The sentiment is generally that Disney should be spending money on new attractions rather than bathrooms. I wouldn’t be too concerned about a lack of construction. Look for an earth shattering announcement coming the first week in May. Anyway, the Rapunzel bathrooms replace the Peter Pan bathrooms, which have already closed. Disney is expected to demolish the bathrooms and build an interactive queue for Peter Pan’s Flight in its place."

Later on, in his comments section, a reader asked him for more specifics and his reply was this:

"mike – I’d expect the announcement to concern an expansion of Hollywood Studios primarily. We should also hear more about the rollout of MyMagic+, including the fact that Annual Passholders will be first to try out the new system."

So, he's not guaranteeing anyone anything. Like I say, I think he's not 100% sure on it, when he's sure about things, he comes right out and tells you, and he'll always been right. But the fact that he's mentioning it at all, means that it's more than a casual rumor - he just doesn't participate in that.

In the larger universe of Disney visitors, yes, he's someone that hardly anyone would find. In the smaller universe of true Disney World fans, as here on the boards, he's very well known and widely read - if you're into research, it's rather surprising that you don't know who he is.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Bloggers just throw anything out there...and there in lies the problem.

But all the quotes you've used basically are known trends or common sense.

Interactive queue for Peter Pan? Not shocking considering that they will be doing this moving forward on many spots.
No line is more stagnant as it stands...except for Soarin and maybe dumbo....wait a minute.

Rollout of the RFID? And to passholders?
Again...1+1 type of tidbit. Maybe in a shocking development...they'll let DVC in on that too.
I would bet that it would have nothing to do with the fact that those people go multiple times annually and would give operations the most amount of raw data/ usage to track.

As far as where to go and when...that's useful...but you can get that from a number of places - including this board and all it's competitors. Or Birnbaums - if you want to be really blunt. It has it's uses - but as you have acknowledged - is just a local who may have cell phone numbers of CMs and checks on things or pounds around property and takes notes. I would do the same I were in LBV...more power too him.

Where I throw up the flag is "big announcement/ construction"
If the web age as it relates to Disney rumors has proven anything - it is that blogs usually will type anything, have a ridiculously low success rate.
And when they are wrong - as they usually are - throw up some corrections/ excuse if "now it looks like that plan is scrapped/ reevaluated/ shelved".
How convenient...and exactly why I say "true the shovels"

Maybe they are gonna throw up something big. It is possible...but I argue unlikely because of the uncertainty of the Avatar project and the recent magic kingdom renovations. They milk their capital expenditures for years now...this isn't Walt and the Boys tinkering with new rides every year.
And knowing that, a more piecemeal approach and WDW's function as a cashcow...should give all observers caution when looking at new development.

There is a certain arrogance when people blog/post "guaranteed" expansion rumors...and I think it tends to be due to wishful thinking outweighing what should be looked at - "dollars and sense"

Does Disney need to do it? Answer no 99% of the time
Would they rather keep the construction capital in the coffers or severely limit/dilute it overtime? Answer yes 100% if the time.

So all blogs...micechat, Jim hill, screamscape, etc are good at rolling out tidbits and theories...just not stopping to break it down to basics.

My take...sorry for the wordiness.

 

[LaurenT]

Bloggers just throw anything out there...and there in lies the problem.

But all the quotes you've used basically are known trends or common sense.

Interactive queue for Peter Pan? Not shocking considering that they will be doing this moving forward on many spots.
No line is more stagnant as it stands...except for Soarin and maybe dumbo....wait a minute.

Rollout of the RFID? And to passholders?
Again...1+1 type of tidbit. Maybe in a shocking development...they'll let DVC in on that too.
I would bet that it would have nothing to do with the fact that those people go multiple times annually and would give operations the most amount of raw data/ usage to track.

As far as where to go and when...that's useful...but you can get that from a number of places - including this board and all it's competitors. Or Birnbaums - if you want to be really blunt. It has it's uses - but as you have acknowledged - is just a local who may have cell phone numbers of CMs and checks on things or pounds around property and takes notes. I would do the same I were in LBV...more power too him.

Where I throw up the flag is "big announcement/ construction"
If the web age as it relates to Disney rumors has proven anything - it is that blogs usually will type anything, have a ridiculously low success rate.
And when they are wrong - as they usually are - throw up some corrections/ excuse if "now it looks like that plan is scrapped/ reevaluated/ shelved".
How convenient...and exactly why I say "true the shovels"

Maybe they are gonna throw up something big. It is possible...but I argue unlikely because of the uncertainty of the Avatar project and the recent magic kingdom renovations. They milk their capital expenditures for years now...this isn't Walt and the Boys tinkering with new rides every year.
And knowing that, a more piecemeal approach and WDW's function as a cashcow...should give all observers caution when looking at new development.

There is a certain arrogance when people blog/post "guaranteed" expansion rumors...and I think it tends to be due to wishful thinking outweighing what should be looked at - "dollars and sense"

Does Disney need to do it? Answer no 99% of the time
Would they rather keep the construction capital in the coffers or severely limit/dilute it overtime? Answer yes 100% if the time.

So all blogs...micechat, Jim hill, screamscape, etc are good at rolling out tidbits and theories...just not stopping to break it down to basics.

My take...sorry for the wordiness.

Yep, you're entitled to your take.
The fact that you just lump all bloggers into the same basket (Jim Hill could not be farther from Josh) leaves me with little motivation to consider your take.
Josh's recommendations are quite often in direct conflict with this board's advice, the advice of TP, and others....when that happens, 9 times out of 10, it's Josh's advice that turns out to be best, which is why I don't bother with the others. I subscribe to TP so that I have a decent lines app when Disney's inevitably goes down during my trip.
I guess we'll know for sure if there's going to be a major construction announcement for DHS in the first week of May by May 7th....I'll be there in May until the 5th....looking forward to doing the Backstage Magic tour while all of this is breaking....
Stay tuned....

 

[WoodysHat]

Ugh, didn't post to set Josh up for a bashing Just thought it would be fun to throw around ideas about what the announcement could be if it did in fact happen!

 

[WoodysHat]

Yep, you're entitled to your take.
The fact that you just lump all bloggers into the same basket (Jim Hill could not be farther from Josh) leaves me with little motivation to consider your take.
Josh's recommendations are quite often in direct conflict with this board's advice, the advice of TP, and others....when that happens, 9 times out of 10, it's Josh's advice that turns out to be best, which is why I don't bother with the others. I subscribe to TP so that I have a decent lines app when Disney's inevitably goes down during my trip.
I guess we'll know for sure if there's going to be a major construction announcement for DHS in the first week of May by May 7th....I'll be there in May until the 5th....looking forward to doing the Backstage Magic tour while all of this is breaking....
Stay tuned....

I agree! We'll find out May 7th

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Ugh, didn't post to set Josh up for a bashing Just thought it would be fun to throw around ideas about what the announcement could be if it did in fact happen!

That was not my intent...and i apologize if i has mistakenly gone personal.

I have nothing against "Josh"...
I just point out that "insider" tips and info on new capital (often talking about hundreds of millions if not billions of dollars) construction is long repeated cautionary tale.

For the record, I want them to build tons of stuff - i have a 3 and a 5 year old and i would like nothing more than for them to see all kinds of new things by the time they turn double digits...

But recent history has not been so. AK has languished...Studios can somewhat be said to have undergone the same neglect - though not as noticeable because they were so small and they have added SOME things - but not 25 years worth.

Everything changed in April 1998. Epcot reinvestment is a mixed bag of incomplete projects. While they have done SOME decent additions...it has also been a period of cloning, and mothballing of attractions.

That is unique...mothballing would have once been taboo.

It's about the money. They are making a ton off you (and I and Me) at that compound...and capital injection lowers profits without majoy upticks in attendance on the aggregate over the last ten years.
Lots of reasons, most just having to do with the broader economy and travel realities/habits...but the trend has shifted.

Between 1989 and 1998 ...they built about a dozen hotels, cruisehips, two water parks, two main line theme parks, a huge expansion/renovation of downtown, and the first phase of their timeshare. We know it as the "disney decade"...and it was successful. Obviously is was a boom period that will not be repeated. But...the opposite has kinda taken place.

Since, the amount of capital expended has been rather meager when compared to the revenues since...one has to look at why it is so.

Because huge expansion/construction has not been deemed "worth it" since. The data has led to that conclusion. The one exception is Vacation Club...which is solely for guaranteed revenue.

Again...its not personal to "josh"...i'm sure he (or she) is dedicated. But blogs are what they are...and millions of dollars are what they are - too much to cover in the current ticket prices.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Yep, you're entitled to your take.
The fact that you just lump all bloggers into the same basket (Jim Hill could not be farther from Josh) leaves me with little motivation to consider your take.

As your loyalty to a specific blog questions your motives. It's fine, no offense. Just a natural reaction.

Josh's recommendations are quite often in direct conflict with this board's advice, the advice of TP, and others....when that happens, 9 times out of 10, it's Josh's advice that turns out to be best, which is why I don't bother with the others. I subscribe to TP so that I have a decent lines app when Disney's inevitably goes down during my trip.

I'll take your word on that. Not my thing...maybe i've been there too much, but line monitoring/planning is not a priority. I have used some of the tips and apps and like them just fine...but trying to get around crowds for the purpose of lines isn't a thing for me. I'd rather a slow stroll through EPCOT on most days - even though i love the rides just like everyone else.

I guess we'll know for sure if there's going to be a major construction announcement for DHS in the first week of May by May 7th....I'll be there in May until the 5th....looking forward to doing the Backstage Magic tour while all of this is breaking....
Stay tuned....

Oh I agree...we'll never know until we hear it...or don't. I would love massive reinvestment and expansion - i'd like nothing more. I just don't believe it from rumors.
FYI - i'm in on the 6th...so maybe we can high five each other in the airport and take shifts on "DHS expansion announcement watch"

I would hope that if the rumor holds true - its a star wars thing and not a cars clone. That would be disappointing. But something is and has always been needed at studios since day one...24 years ago.

 

[LaurenT]

As your loyalty to a specific blog questions your motives. It's fine, no offense. Just a natural reaction.

I'll take your word on that. Not my thing...maybe i've been there too much, but line monitoring/planning is not a priority. I have used some of the tips and apps and like them just fine...but trying to get around crowds for the purpose of lines isn't a thing for me. I'd rather a slow stroll through EPCOT on most days - even though i love the rides just like everyone else.

Oh I agree...we'll never know until we hear it...or don't. I would love massive reinvestment and expansion - i'd like nothing more. I just don't believe it from rumors.
FYI - i'm in on the 6th...so maybe we can high five each other in the airport and take shifts on "DHS expansion announcement watch"

I would hope that if the rumor holds true - its a star wars thing and not a cars clone. That would be disappointing. But something is and has always been needed at studios since day one...24 years ago.

Not sure why you would question my motives just because I am loyal to the advice of someone who has worked out well for me.
It is not a paid blog, and he does not take advertisers. I don't even know the guy and am not a regular poster on his forum (as I am here).
I am curious though about why you are here on the rumors board when you have such clear disdain for anyone who has a rumor - likely (as this one) or not - to share....

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Not sure why you would question my motives just because I am loyal to the advice of someone who has worked out well for me.
It is not a paid blog, and he does not take advertisers. I don't even know the guy and am not a regular poster on his forum (as I am here).
I am curious though about why you are here on the rumors board when you have such clear disdain for anyone who has a rumor - likely (as this one) or not - to share....

its not nearly as combative as you're taking it...

If you say i can't lump the "good" blogs with the "Bad"...even though they are unauthorized, unofficial, and entirely up to the whim of the blogger...

then i can question why "Josh" is special.

i'm just pointing out tendencies and differences when it comes these types of things...not really pushing a specific issue.

we just are different in opinion on this...and that's ok

And i don't have a disdain for rumors...only when they are then presented as fact or corporate will. "Major announcement in may" implies that a decision has been made...and there is NO way to substantiate that because blogs are...well...blogs.

 

[mcd2745]

I tend to give this more weight as well since it came from Josh. He doesn't hype anything, and in fact, whereas many others if they had any info like that would have made that an entire post with a big "headline"...he basically threw it out there as throw-away line in the midst of another post.

 

[AJ1983]

Not sure why you would question my motives just because I am loyal to the advice of someone who has worked out well for me.
It is not a paid blog, and he does not take advertisers. I don't even know the guy and am not a regular poster on his forum (as I am here).
I am curious though about why you are here on the rumors board when you have such clear disdain for anyone who has a rumor - likely (as this one) or not - to share....

First of all, I love his site, but I always assumed he took ads/ was paid for it.

Now my question is, what DOES he do for a living and how do I get that job? I'll take whatever job will offer me the opportunity to be at DisneyWorld so often! haha

 

[LaurenT]

First of all, I love his site, but I always assumed he took ads/ was paid for it.

Now my question is, what DOES he do for a living and how do I get that job? I'll take whatever job will offer me the opportunity to be at DisneyWorld so often! haha

Yeah - I wonder that quite often myself! If you look through his site, you won't see any ads anywhere...I think he should do them - it would at least offset the cost of running the site and possibly give him a profit.
So, then who would be paying him? Certainly not Disney - he doesn't tow the line as he would have to if he were on the payroll - and he often complains snarkily about not being invited to media or travel agent events....
So, he's in the parks practically everyday, has a fancy camera and even hangs out with some of the TP people....he's a mystery.
I invited him to join us for dinner at BOG last trip, but he didn't take me up on it. Would have been happy to buy him dinner as a thank you for all the great info.

 

[johnGorski]

Earth shattering-construction will be Avatar world. They will announce the final plans in may for this project. Avatar world has a price tag $400-500million about the cost of a major league stadium, can't see them shelling out another 500million plus for cars land. DHS will get something in the next two-three years not on the grand scale of cars land, my thoughts MI coaster.

 

[twebber55]

Earth shattering-construction will be Avatar world. They will announce the final plans in may for this project. Avatar world has a price tag $400-500million about the cost of a major league stadium, can't see them shelling out another 500million plus for cars land. DHS will get something in the next two-three years not on the grand scale of cars land, my thoughts MI coaster.

Is this an educated guess or insider info?

 

[PACVII]

When is this to start? More important when is it set to be completed? Hope it's not a two year plan like FLE. They just need to make the effort and have to completed as soon as they can and not drag it out. I also hope they do it right and not try to cut cost. This could be a great addition to property or a flop like removing PI was.

 

[PACVII]

When is this to start? More important when is it set to be completed? Hope it's not a two year plan like FLE. They just need to make the effort and have to completed as soon as they can and not drag it out. I also hope they do it right and not try to cut cost. This could be a great addition to property or a flop like removing PI was.

I'm talking of Disney Springs that is.

 

[johnGorski]

Is this an educated guess or insider info?

Little of both. 2-3 years ago when FLE construction started there was a project X that insiders spoke to being massive mutli million dollar project. The most popular rumor was Tommrow Land expansion "Tron" other was a massive project at DAK most thought Aussi land. That financing was signed off apparently when FLE broke ground. Other reason why we will not see another 400-500 million project like cars land for a long long time is it was stated last year from the Iger and Russo that Disney was taking a break on massive theme park attraction such as FLE and Avatar. I can see however DHS and EPCOT will get something in the 50 million dollar range next 5-7 years not on a grand scale like MK and DAK.

 

[LaurenT]

Little of both. 2-3 years ago when FLE construction started there was a project X that insiders spoke to being massive mutli million dollar project. The most popular rumor was Tommrow Land expansion "Tron" other was a massive project at DAK most thought Aussi land. That financing was signed off apparently when FLE broke ground. Other reason why we will not see another 400-500 million project like cars land for a long long time is it was stated last year from the Iger and Russo that Disney was taking a break on massive theme park attraction such as FLE and Avatar. I can see however DHS and EPCOT will get something in the 50 million dollar range next 5-7 years not on a grand scale like MK and DAK.

Josh thinks the May announcement is going to be DHS. AvatarLand is supposed to be AK....

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Josh thinks the May announcement is going to be DHS. AvatarLand is supposed to be AK....

And therein is the problem with the theory.

What of avatarland?

It has become somewhat of an accepted misconception that its dead since
They bought Star Wars.

I don't think so...some of the hook on the deal in the first place is that Cameron is going to shell out some type of development/construction costs.

They will not give that idea up...like bread from an old lady at an Italian restaurant...from their cold dead hands.

So knowing that it's probably going to go...not only because of the perks of the deal but because animal Kingdom needs it the most.

And it looks as if downtown is being "saved"...hundreds of millions in costs there...

So now they're gonna throw another half billion into studios at the same time?

That doesn't shake out. It just doesn't.

Just last year...Iger informed us all that they'd be drawing construction back. Last June.

So now that has been chucked...and the pedal has been put down...no
Budgets, throw caution to the wind?

Hmmmmm