Market (S&P 500) Returns Next 10 Yrs?

[RamblingMad]

What do you guys think annualized over the next ten years?

I’m projecting 4-5%.

 

[BridgetBordeaux]

With dividends reinvested?................your number sounds reasonable

 

[MillauFr]

It will be much higher than that. 8 - 9%. There is no way governments can return to tight money policies that would depress stock returns. Only way we can prevent most governments from going bankrupt is to keep the easy money policies going.

 

[RamblingMad]

It will be much higher than that. 8 - 9%. There is no way governments can return to tight money policies that would depress stock returns. Only way we can prevent most governments from going bankrupt is to keep the easy money policies going.

How do you get to your 8-9%?

I'm expecting the following:

* nominal GDP growth of 4-5%
* dividends of 2%
* and a return to a 20x PE

If the PE doesn't return to 20x, then I can see the S&P 500 returning 6-7% annualized. Otherwise, a drop in the PE from today's levels to 20x will chop off a good point.

 

[MillauFr]

The federal reserve will have print another $4 or 5 trillion dollars during the next economic crisis in order to stimulate demand. Just like they did in 2008. Most of that will end up flowing into the stock market just like it did the last time. There is no fiscal discipline in the United States. The solution is to always print more money.