March vs. May 2006 (and UG crowd predictions)

[mill4023]

Any thoughts on when to go next spring?
We went on our first trip the first week of May this year and thought it was a good time to go as far as crowds and weather.

We were planning to go in May again next year with the idea that it would be after the spring break/easter crowds and before the summer crowds. From everything I've heard here, and from the fact that it is regular season instead of peak season like March, I figured May would be less crowded.

But I've been keeping my eye on the UG's predictions, and they seem to disagree. Crowd Predictions
They have most of March as 6's and 7's, while may gets a lot more 8's.

We have spring break the week of March 20th next year. I was planning to take the kids out of school to beat the crowds, but if March is really going to be less crowded than May, or even the same, I'd rather go when the kids have spring break and don't have to miss as much school.

Any opinions?

EDIT: It looks like our spring break is actually the week of 3/27. So if we chose to go then, we'd probably go like 3/18 - 4/1 (still 6's and 7's in the UG)

 

[mickeymom55]

I've never been to WDW in March. However, we did go the second week of May this year. I actually have pictures of the Epcot pavillions with no one in front of them! Crowds were light. No more than a 10-15 minute wait for everything except Soarin. The weather was beautiful - low humidity and temps in the mid 80's every day. You are right - it's between spring break and summer vacations so there were no crowds. I'd go in May anytime!

 

[MommytoPayton&Max]

I went in May of 2004 (first part of the month) and then again in Feb. of 2005 (the week before MLK). The crowds were pretty close to the same level but perhaps a slight bit lighter in Feb. If I had a choice, I would do May again, because the weather is warmer. We didn't go to a water park in Feb. and if you have the time, it is a good option. I might also consider after Easter when the crowds are back lower....later April but not yet May (depending when Easter exactly is this year).

Have fun!

 

[umaangel00]

We went in March of this year. We loved it. We were there just before spring break and it was awesome. No long lines at all. The weather was in the 70s most times but one day it was rainy and in the 50s. At night it can be a bit chilly though. We loved it so much we are going to take a yearly trip in March!

 

[mill4023]

I've never been to WDW in March. However, we did go the second week of May this year. I actually have pictures of the Epcot pavillions with no one in front of them! Crowds were light. No more than a 10-15 minute wait for everything except Soarin. The weather was beautiful - low humidity and temps in the mid 80's every day. You are right - it's between spring break and summer vacations so there were no crowds. I'd go in May anytime!

I agree that May was great. We were there from April 28-May 7th and also thought the crowds weren't bad at all. But like I said, I'd rather the kids not miss as much school if the crowds aren't going to be any worse in March. The reason I planned to go May is that I thought March would be a lot more crowded because of spring breaks.

My question is really whether you guys think the UG is correct in predicting that 3/18 - 4/1 will have the same crowd levels(6's and 7's) as 4/29 - 5/14.

 

[Lizzydoll73]

I would imagine that May 2005 would have been more crowded than usually due to the 50th Celebration starting on 5/05/05. I have ressies for 5/06 so I am hoping it won't be that bad.

 

[Bob P]

My experience is that March is MUCH more crowded than May.

We were just there this May on the weekend of the start of the Happiest Celebration, and we pretty much walked on everything (except Soarin').

March is a big Spring Break month.

As much as I love the UG, I'd have to disagree with the UG on this one.

Bob

 

[lentesta]

Hi folks,

I agree it's Spring Break driven, but I have copies of the 2006 Spring Break schedules for most public schools east of the Mississipi, and they're largely in April next year.

For example, in 2005, we counted something like 2.5 million K-12 students on Spring Break in March from the 17 most populated school systems that impact WDW. Looking at the same schools' 2006 spring break schedule, March 2006 has about 45% less (1.38 million), with all the remaining kids shifting to April. April's already got Easter, Passover, New York City public schools, and many systems in the New England area, too.

Taking that reduction into account, March numbers for 2006 seem to look a lot like May 2005 numbers, roughly speaking. This ignores the effect of college spring breaks, which we're still looking at.

Does that make sense? It's mostly a shift of K-12 spring breaks from March to April next year, and some educated guessing based on that.

Len

 

[Bob P]

Len, thanks for elaborating!

I guess my issue would then be with the listing of May as "6-7-8." May seems pretty empty until we approach Memorial Day, no?

I'd also say the effect of college spring breaks would play a pretty substantial role. My point was--numbers or no numbers--May will be emptier than March. Would you agree with that?

Bob

 

[fanofdisney]

We also went in May this year. Even if March is less crowded, May is still a very light crowd. I'd say you can't go wrong with either. The weather in March may not be quite as sticky, though.

 

[lentesta]

Hi Bob,

Interesting question about college spring breaks. I have those from 2005, too, covering something like 3.8 million students. They peaked March 13-18 (1.5 million) and March 21-25 (1.07 million), a bit ahead of the peak wait times we observed.

The most plausible explanation I've heard for this comes from the DIS' bnoble, who suggested college students tend to go to Cancun, Daytona, South Padre Island, and other party-oriented locales, rather than Disney World. (What, no one does volunteer work at home anymore? ) This reasoning has a certain appeal to it, but it's difficult for us to separate out the influence of the college kids in March from the K-12 kids in March using any data collected by any of the organizations we're working with. So we're still working on that.

Another factor to consider is the price of fuel. About 70% of Orlando-area visitors drive to their destination, roughly a quarter fly, and the rest go by train, boat or something else. I think I mentioned in another post that fuel prices may impact Florida-based visitors more than out-of-state guests, since gas is a higher percentage of FL-guests' cost. We'll also have to take a look at that. WDW's attendance was down 1% in the latest quarter versus a year ago, according to their latest 10-Q filing with the SEC, so it'll be interesting to see whether that trend continues.

We're going to take a look at how well the actual wait times in the park match our predictions for this month, before deciding whether to update the crowd level predictions. My hunch is that the crowd predictions will come in slightly high, but that's just a guess. We've got people scheduled to be in the parks every couple of days for the rest of the month, so we should have a good idea of what's going on.

Hope this helps.

Len

 

[mill4023]

Hi folks,

I agree it's Spring Break driven, but I have copies of the 2006 Spring Break schedules for most public schools east of the Mississipi, and they're largely in April next year.

For example, in 2005, we counted something like 2.5 million K-12 students on Spring Break in March from the 17 most populated school systems that impact WDW. Looking at the same schools' 2006 spring break schedule, March 2006 has about 45% less (1.38 million), with all the remaining kids shifting to April. April's already got Easter, Passover, New York City public schools, and many systems in the New England area, too.

Taking that reduction into account, March numbers for 2006 seem to look a lot like May 2005 numbers, roughly speaking. This ignores the effect of college spring breaks, which we're still looking at.

Does that make sense? It's mostly a shift of K-12 spring breaks from March to April next year, and some educated guessing based on that.

Len

Thanks Len.
I appreciate your input.

I think we've decided to go in March for several reasons.
First, even if does end up being a bit more crowded than May, I believe you that it won't be too bad with Easter being in mid-april.
Second, we'd like to make this a 12-14 day trip and 2 weeks is too much school for my kids to miss.
Third, if we go during spring break, my mom and my 14 yr old sister can go with us for part of the trip and we'd really like that.

 

[MommytoPayton&Max]

We've got people scheduled to be in the parks every couple of days for the rest of the month, so we should have a good idea of what's going on.

What a miserable job! Could you point me in the direction of the application for these positions? Also, is it a problem if I have to travel from the Midwest for this work?

 

[Bob P]

Len, outstanding work as always! I've been reading (and more importantly for you, buying) the book since the early 90s and I never recall getting bad advice!

Keep up the great work!

Bob

 

[lentesta]

The job you want is "hotel researcher," where we pay for you to stay at a deluxe resort. Since it's the UG, there's a ten-page checklist to fill out for every room, and you'd be carrying enough measuring equipment to look like Bill Murray in Ghostbusters. Haven't tried it yet myself, but it sounds like a cool assignment.

Len

 

[katjenlilly]

March is a mess! We usually go in January but this we decided we wanted to go in March so it would be warmer. Huge mistake! It rained every day we were there and it was super crowded with spring breakers. Not fun

 

[WNDMom]

We went the second week of March this year, and it was wonderful. Slightly cool, but we wore long sleeves or carried jackets. We had very little wait for the rides - except Dumbo! We're planning to go again in March 2006.

Sarah

 

[mill4023]

If disney's park hours are any indication of the type of crowds to expect, March shouldn't be too bad. I was looking at the hours for the past couple years and comparing it to when Easter fell.
In 2002 and 2005, Easter was at the end of March and MK was open until 11 or 12 during the 2 weeks around Easter.
In 2003 and 2004, Easter was April 20th and April 11th. In both of these years, MK was again open until 11 or 12 every night for the 2 week period around Easter. But in these 2 years, the hours for the last couple weeks of March were about the same as the hours throughout May. Mostly 7 and 8 o'clock closings in 2003 and mostly 8 and 9 o'clock closings in 2004.

At least judging by park hours, it looks like Easter has a much bigger influence on crowds than March spring breaks. Or at least a much more concentrated influence.