Marathon Weekend Weather - version 2011

[jeanigor]

Thanks Coach for keeping track and updating the info. I started laying out clothes last night and wondered if I would need my thermals this year. Looks like I won't.

 

[MaryJ]

I'm hoping! I've done a majority of my training indoors, so these temps look great to me! I'm naturally cold all the time, so anything below 50 at the start and I'm going to freeze!

Me too! Of course, I trained indoors last year too (gym has an indoor track) and I was NOT prepared to run in the cold! Proud to say, I did it anyway!

 

[heatherlynn444]

thanks for the update! I am so excited and nervous. As long as its not sleeting and in the 20's like last year I will be ok! I'm from the south so i can take it if its warmer!

 

[cewait]

We are beginning to roll into the 10 day forecast window. Today, included two new services, Weather.com and Intellicast. One would expect the forecasts to tighten up over the next few days.


Weather Channel
5k Start - 51F – Hi N/A
Half Start - N/A
Full Start – N/A


Accuweather
5k Start 49F – Hi 71F
Half Start 54F – Hi 78F - light rain
Full Start – 56F – Hi 80F - light rain

Intellicast
5k Start - 51F – Hi N/A
Half Start - N/A
Full Start – N/A

Weatherforyou
5k Start 64F – Hi 73F light rain
Half Start 59F – Hi 63F
Full Start 42F – Hi 54F


Norms
50-52F low (race start)
70-72F High

Note that light rain is not a condition that requires much planning. In all forecasts mentioning rain it is a minor chance and during the day.

 

[Bephus]

I think accuweather must have changed their models after you looked at it thus morning because their temps are more in line with the other forcasts with lows in the upper 30's and highs around 60. We shall see what really happens.

We are beginning to roll into the 10 day forecast window. Today, included two new services, Weather.com and Intellicast. One would expect the forecasts to tighten up over the next few days.


Weather Channel
5k Start - 51F – Hi N/A
Half Start - N/A
Full Start – N/A


Accuweather
5k Start 49F – Hi 71F
Half Start 54F – Hi 78F - light rain
Full Start – 56F – Hi 80F - light rain

Intellicast
5k Start - 51F – Hi N/A
Half Start - N/A
Full Start – N/A

Weatherforyou
5k Start 64F – Hi 73F light rain
Half Start 59F – Hi 63F
Full Start 42F – Hi 54F


Norms
50-52F low (race start)
70-72F High

Note that light rain is not a condition that requires much planning. In all forecasts mentioning rain it is a minor chance and during the day.

 

[Destination:Athlete]

Wow - there seems to be quite the difference between the Accuweather and Weatherforyou forecast for race morning....

Anyone know how accurate either of them are?

 

[Dsnrunner]

Wow - there seems to be quite the difference between the Accuweather and Weatherforyou forecast for race morning....

Anyone know how accurate either of them are?

Well, it's a weather report, so take it with a grain of salt. Here on the East Coast, Accuweather told us on Friday that we may get a dusting of snow Sunday evening. On Saturday, accuweather told us we are getting a snow storm, starting on Sunday afternoon. On Sunday morning, one of the worst blizzards to hit the East Coast in years, dumped 20 to 30 inches of snow. What changed from Friday ( a dusting of snow) to Sunday ( a blizzard)...

 

[FireDancer]

56 for race start would be terrible. I'm still holding out for low 40's. My warmest run for the last month was 36 and the vast majority were run in the teens so anything too warm will not bode well for my time.

 

[cewait]

Wow - there seems to be quite the difference between the Accuweather and Weatherforyou forecast for race morning....

Anyone know how accurate either of them are?

As posted earlier, these are really remote forecasts and either could be accurate for the days in the 11-15 day range. As we pull in closer to the weekend, you will see my drop the weather4you data.

56 for race start would be terrible. I'm still holding out for low 40's. My warmest run for the last month was 36 and the vast majority were run in the teens so anything too warm will not bode well for my time.

You may be getting your wish...

The noon update on Accuweather has race starts temps at

51 - 5k
47 - half
37 - full

Again, I am betting these moderate in the near term then start to reflect reality through the weekend

 

[Tiger Lily 03]

56 for race start would be terrible. I'm still holding out for low 40's. My warmest run for the last month was 36 and the vast majority were run in the teens so anything too warm will not bode well for my time.

Me too. While I do not wish for the weather we had this January, I need a bit cooler than the higher temps now predicted.

Charles, I hope that Accu weather prediction is the one.

 

[Pumbaa80]

Thanks for keeping track of all the weather sites!

 

[cewait]

Today’s update…

Seems like some models are expecting a front late next week or into the weekend. The timing and if or how severe the front is is still too early to tell. We get the first view of the NWS on Friday


Weather Channel
5k Start - 51F – Hi 71F - rain overnight Thursday
Half Start - 49F – Hi N/A
Full Start – N/A


Accuweather
5k Start 51F – Hi 76F
Half Start 47F – Hi 60F - rain
Full Start – 37F – Hi 59F – rain in the morning

Intellicast
5k Start - 51F – Hi 71F
Half Start - 49F – Hi N/A
Full Start – N/A

Weatherforyou
5k Start 44F – Hi 50F
Half Start 37F – Hi 50F
Full Start 38F – Hi 55F


Norms
50-52F low (race start)
70-72F High


On a side note, I did notice that the Runner's Retreat sold out the day before yesterday. So we are all just weather watchers at this point in time

 

[DianeL]

Thanks Charles! I look forward to your updates They were great last year too Packing this weekend.

 

[ultramickeymouse]

Charles: I guess they were watching the 15 day forecast as well!

Getting wet while sitting around a couple hrs before the marathon won't be fun

 

[cewait]

Temps lined up for the 5k and half starts this afternoon. More details in the AM when the full comes into the 10 day range.

 

[Joolish1313]

I am waiting and watching too. I know rain looks likely, but chances of showers is always in an FL forecast. Here's hoping for 3 dry mornings!!

 

[cewait]

Today’s update…

Seems like some models are expecting a front late next week or into the weekend. The exact timing of the front is is still iffy, but the models seem to focus on a cooler marathon. Cool enough to make for an uncomfortable wait, but ideal once we hit a mile of the race.

We get the first view of the NWS on Friday


NWS
Tomorrow

Weather Channel
5k Start - 55F – Hi 74F
Half Start - 48F – Hi 69F
Full Start – 42F – High N/A


Accuweather
5k Start 51F – Hi 76F
Half Start 51F – Hi 78F - rain
Full Start – 40F – Hi 61F

Intellicast
5k Start - 55F – Hi 72F
Half Start - 48F – Hi 67F
Full Start – 42F - N/A

Weatherforyou
5k Start 53F – Hi 61F
Half Start 44F – Hi 55F
Full Start 40F – Hi 55F


Norms
50-52F low (race start)
70-72F High

 

[crewmatt]

As long as the rain is out

 

[cewait]

Funny it shows a long period of rain on Saturday but with very little accumulation. I am thinking wide spread showers

 

[Lexxiefern]

Minus the rain, the temps don't look too bad.