My biggest goal is not to stop running... last year I did it in 4:22 so I was hoping for that or a minute or two faster- time is less important to me than just being able to consistently run (my knees act up starting and stopping or changing angles sharply). I would honestly buy another bib right now just to be able to submit a time, but it looks totally sold out,
Step 1) See if they can change your corral assignment at the expo.
Step 2) If they can't change it, know that in 2018 runners were able to run sub-4:22 when starting in the last corral.
Step 3) Determine how and when you can best run a sub-4:22 when starting in the last corral.
1) So the first thing I'd suggest doing is going to Runner's Relations at the Expo. Pick up your bib first and then go there with a print-out of the 2019 Disney Marathon results showing you ran a 4:22. Additionally, you could even take a picture of you in the bib with (just as extra level, yea this was me). Go there knowing there is a less than 1% chance they'll be able to help change your corral, but even that is worth a little of your time to at least try. If you go anytime other than Wednesday morning, then I'd venture to guess the line will be shorter and less stressful for everyone involved. Go with a smile and admittance that this was your error. In almost all cases, they probably won't be able to change the corral assignment. But it's worth a shot. Maybe even try for the fastest non-POT corral (F) instead of where you were supposed to be seeded if you had remembered to submit.
2) But in the most likely event that you can't change corrals at the expo, then the following information should somewhat help you mentally.
Here is a tableau of the 2018 Disney Marathon results (
link).
In this graphic below I've sub-selected only those who were assigned Corral H.
The yellow line represents the 4:30 marathon. If you pay attention to the far right last three columns you can see those are the runners that were assigned and started in Corral H. So you can see there were lots of runners who were able to run a 4:30 marathon or better starting from the last corral. So at a minimum, that's the good news to show that running a sub-4:22 marathon from the last corral is completely feasible. And those runners weren't all at the front of Corral H either as evidenced by the three columns in H representing the three mini-waves.
Here's a numerical representation of the same information:
Again sub-selected for only those were assigned Corral H. This one does include some runners that were assigned but did not start in Corral H.
So based on these two graphics, I would say running a sub-4:22 marathon is feasible from Corral H.
3) So lastly is determining how to run a sub-4:22 M from Corral H. I picked the first 4 runners I could find that started in Corral H who ran about a 4:22 M.
The green is their split at the timing mat, and the blue is the pace. Just from these four runners, I can already tell that for the most part you
could have run your pace roughly from the start. There's a big caveat to this, and that is that the course has changed in 2020. We haven't seen it officially yet, but it appears we'll be running through EPCOT in some shape or form to start the marathon. EPCOT is likely to be more congested than the open roads heading towards MK would have been. So I think that's where studying the new course will be important. Learning where the course is likely to congest, and where it is likely to open up. When we're not in the theme parks or outside GF/Poly you should have more opportunities to pass freely. But I think the EPCOT start is going to take some patience to allow the field to thin out naturally. But it'll be interesting to see the real course and how they might combat this potential congestion.
I anticipate that this is going to be a smaller race than in year's past. I don't know that for sure and we should learn next week when waivers/corrals/guides come out. With that means a smaller gun time to balloon lady time. So that means you're likely to start closer to your POT corral than in year's past. That means if you run at a rate similar to your normal pace, you're likely to pass many of the other runners from corrals sooner than you would have otherwise. So the EPCOT theme park loop not withstanding, it means you're more likely to be in a good position come the exit of EPCOT to make some passes freely that enables you to get with people more like your own goal pacing.
I think ultimately, the best advice I can give you is to be patient and courteous. The above information should help show that it's possible to run a sub-4:22 marathon if you're unable to change corrals. The splits of these runners were not unlike many marathon runners being slow starters, too fast starters, and evenly paced. Given the possible smaller field this year, it may mean the time spent on the roads may be even more open than in the past allowing more opportunity to pass.
Hope that helps!