Are you happy at Value/Moderate resorts? It’s impossible to make the math work comparing DVC ago any of the values (other than the family suites) and the moderates depend greatly on travel schedule and room choice whether you’ll be able to break even, and if you can, it’ll likely take a decade or longer. If you’re staying in Preferred rooms at CBR in May, maybe you can make the math work to save money. Eventually. If you’re staying in the cheapest room at POR in early March, probably not.
DVC makes the most sense for people who would otherwise be staying in Deluxes or who would rather stay in a suite than a hotel room, and are willing to pay for the difference.
This was a great response that I want to expand upon.
The different resort categories is an important one that you've hit on. Our preference has always been moderate for hotels but we've moved up to nicer properties on our stays over the last few years - not referring to Disney but to hotels in general. Would I ever pay cash for deluxe at Disney? No, which I should have considered a bit before I bought DVC. That alone would have ruled out DVC for us.
Do we vacation at Disney every year? No, which should have ruled out buying a lot of DVC points. Even every other year while we're working is too much vacation time burned on Disneyworld.
When I bought the contracts, I was thinking that I could rent out some of the points but with what's happened in the rental market, I wouldn't want to do that.
And since we live in Las Vegas,
Disneyland is more convenient and we do take short trips there. When we do, we stay at Camelot Inn and Suites which is across the street from the DL/CA entrance. It's below value as far as quality of accommodations but the location can't be beat. Or we can burn some of my huge pile of Marriott/Hilton/Hyatt points for nicer hotels a few blocks from the entrance.
Another aspect of DVC that one needs to consider is the tendency to invite others to stay with you at a DVC property. That means you need additional points, something I was guilty of buying. And I've read where others do the same - inviting people to stay for free at their DVC property.
So instead of DVC, what are other better fitting options for my wife and me? Shades of Green (we're both retired military) and good neighbor hotels will give us early fastpass reservations (should those ever return), or plenty of close by hotels for much better pricing than DVC.
Another huge concern for me going forward is all of those unused DVC points that are piling up. I'll be watching what happens at the seven month point once the COVID issue goes away ... given the glut of unused points, I suspect that things will get more complicated for booking less than 7 months out. And having to plan for vacation 11 months away doesn't work for us since we both have jobs that aren't too flexible on time off.
We've owned our two DVC contracts for less than a year and we have them both under contract to sell. I'll monitor the DVC prices and may buy again (small contract) if pricing gets interesting. But it will have to be a huge fire sale because MFs alone are more expensive than what I can find from non-Disney properties.
I find DVC to be golden handcuffs which lock one into regular
Disney vacations.