Likelihood for getting non-home resort requests?

[SouthJersey]

Hey guys,

It's too hard to pass up looking at the discounted price of going with certain home resorts, but I know the trade-off of not getting into where we'd prefer to vacation can be a steep, miserable price to pay.

We would almost always be going during the 'adventure' and 'choice' seasons. We never go during holiday weeks or when kids are out of school, we generally always look to go in January, October, early December, or early September. I'm hoping that with 99% of the time our vacations fall under what disney considers their two lowest seasons, we'd have a good chance of getting into WL, BW, AKL, GF, etc.

Any input is greatly appreciated, we've been evaluating DVC & direct vs resale for the past six months or so and trying to finally decide.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Low points equals high demand from DVC members. Early December is the highest demand time for DVC. October is also very high demand.

They are not DVC's lowest seasons, in other words.

I would say that for those times, you simply won't get resorts not your home at 7 months - people get shut out of CCV and VWL at 11 months in December. VGF has 47 studios. BCV and BWV are insanely popular for Food and Wine and Candlelight Processional.

If you can book 1BRs it gets better. But it still is not a guarantee in Fall Frenzy.

Find Pete's historical availability charts. Fall is dank. Note that this is historical. It has gotten worse for studios.


https://www.disboards.com/threads/p...-studios-1-bedrooms-june-2018-update.3689931/

 

[SouthJersey]

Low points equals high demand from DVC members. Early December is the highest demand time for DVC. October is also very high demand.

They are not DVC's lowest seasons, in other words.

I would say that for those times, you simply won't get resorts not your home at 7 months - people get shut out of CCV and VWL at 11 months in December. VGF has 47 studios. BCV and BWV are insanely popular for Food and Wine and Candlelight Processional.

If you can book 1BRs it gets better. But it still is not a guarantee in Fall Frenzy.

Find Pete's historical availability charts. Fall is dank. Note that this is historical. It has gotten worse for studios.

https://www.disboards.com/threads/p...-studios-1-bedrooms-june-2018-update.3689931/

Ahhh I see that now, especially in a few of the availability posts.
I pictured it as old as time supply and demand. Wouldn't the point per night price be higher when it's busy since they don't need to offer incentive to get guests to book and lowest to entice people, but evidently that's not the case lol.

 

[SouthJersey]

Low points equals high demand from DVC members. Early December is the highest demand time for DVC. October is also very high demand.

They are not DVC's lowest seasons, in other words.

I would say that for those times, you simply won't get resorts not your home at 7 months - people get shut out of CCV and VWL at 11 months in December. VGF has 47 studios. BCV and BWV are insanely popular for Food and Wine and Candlelight Processional.

If you can book 1BRs it gets better. But it still is not a guarantee in Fall Frenzy.

Find Pete's historical availability charts. Fall is dank. Note that this is historical. It has gotten worse for studios.


https://www.disboards.com/threads/p...-studios-1-bedrooms-june-2018-update.3689931/

Thanks for the link to & quick reply.
This is a headacheeeee lol

 

[TCRAIG]

Fall and early Dec are bad no matter what room size...I always book 1 bedroom and need my 11 month window - that’s why I own at so many resorts! Book where you want or at least can live with is really so so true - low DVC points=high DVC demand...

 

[Sandisw]

I pictured it as old as time supply and demand. Wouldn't the point per night price be higher when it's busy since they don't need to offer incentive to get guests to book? And lowest point pricing to entice guests to come when slow?

That would seem to be the case, but with DVC it is not. People have discussed for years that they are surprised that early Dec hasn't changed season for the points charts due to how difficult it is. But, as mentioned, DVC booking patterns are not the same as Disney crowd patterns. Fall is especially busy so one should book at 11 months at home resort and at 7, try to change if possible. The resorts you mention will be very difficult. Nothing is every impossible, but if you are going to be disappointed if you have difficulty during many of your trips, then it is not worth the risk of buying for less thinking it will be no big deal to switch out.

I own right now at BWV and SSR. My BWV is for the times when I visit in the fall for F & W, or in December when I want to be near a park. My SSR points are for the other times I will visit when I think I can change out at 7 months. I have had good luck so far in January, March, and August getting Poly & VGF in studios, but it took some stalking the website, and wait listing to piece together the trip at 7 months.

Out of the times you mention, the early September would be the easier (I think) to get some of the resorts you mention. I think switching to AKV at 7 months will be easier than the other places, unless you are considering value rooms or Concierge level as those are even tough for owners.

IMO, DVC is about the long term and not short term. I would buy at one of the resorts you wouldn't mind staying if trading out at 7 months is difficult. I would not buy someplace you would feel "stuck".

Good luck!

 

[_auroraborealis_]

I will say, actually, that in some cases crowd patterns for fall are bad/worse than when people would consider "high crowd" periods. Summer has gotten quieter; October is a madhouse, especially around Columbus Day. Spring break isn't actually so bad except right near Easter, because schools all have different breaks for spring, but the most common fall break dates include Columbus Day.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I will say, actually, that in some cases crowd patterns for fall are bad/worse than when people would consider "high crowd" periods. Summer has gotten quieter; October is a madhouse, especially around Columbus Day. Spring break isn't actually so bad except right near Easter, because schools all have different breaks for spring, but the most common fall break dates include Columbus Day.

Agreed. People still talk of a lot of times as being slow park times like early Dec and so on but I would not have said that for quite a few years ag this point. No, it's not Holiday crowds but it's relatively packed IMO compared to how it was when it first got that reputation.

 

[Great3]

Ahhh I see that now, especially in a few of the availability posts.
I pictured it as old as time supply and demand. Wouldn't the point per night price be higher when it's busy since they don't need to offer incentive to get guests to book and lowest to entice people, but evidently that's not the case lol.

This is the case for cash reservations, where if the prices are too high, you can choose not to go. In the case of DVC, where MF dues are pre-pay, it's use it or lose it, and people are trying to maximize the value of their contracts / points. They don't choose to not go, because in that case, they lost the money they already paid into their MF dues.

It doesn't matter how DVC move the points charts around, the "season" with lowest points cost will be the most difficult to book. Unless DVC just make one big flat season, than you will see the normal pattern of Jan/Sept/Oct/1st couple weeks of Dec being slow for DVC bookings, but anytime there is an option to stretch / maximize value, people are going to go for that, after all, why not get more nights in when you can, it doesn't cost you anymore in terms of MF fee dues, unless cash reservations as you pay extra for each extra night you stay.

I think the DVC seasons are actually good for families with kids. It allows those families that can only travel outside of school seasons a chance to actually use their DVC ownership, I am glad this makes it easier for them to book a room for those times where they don't have much flexibility on the dates they can travel.

Great3

 

[anomamatt]

This is the case for cash reservations, where if the prices are too high, you can choose not to go. In the case of DVC, where MF dues are pre-pay, it's use it or lose it, and people are trying to maximize the value of their contracts / points. They don't choose to not go, because in that case, they lost the money they already paid into their MF dues.

It doesn't matter how DVC move the points charts around, the "season" with lowest points cost will be the most difficult to book. Unless DVC just make one big flat season, than you will see the normal pattern of Jan/Sept/Oct/1st couple weeks of Dec being slow for DVC bookings, but anytime there is an option to stretch / maximize value, people are going to go for that, after all, why not get more nights in when you can, it doesn't cost you anymore in terms of MF fee dues, unless cash reservations as you pay extra for each extra night you stay.

I think the DVC seasons are actually good for families with kids. It allows those families that can only travel outside of school seasons a chance to actually use their DVC ownership, I am glad this makes it easier for them to book a room for those times where they don't have much flexibility on the dates they can travel.

Great3

Agreed.

And, of course, it makes sense for DVC (the company, not the members) to have peak-DVC demand when the cash demand is the least...

I wish DVC would even the seasons out (except maybe holidays), but I think we will have the same seasons and high/low cost for a long time, if not forever.

 

[eMoneyBug]

We own SSR and have always been able to find rooms to stay in, but we actually want to split stays to experience different resorts since we live in SoCal, so the times we've come out, we basically had to because of availability as well. If your family has the mind set of we have to stay at Resort XYZ for the entire trip and you are not flexible to split or staying elsewhere, definitely buy where you want to be at, otherwise if you can live with hey I don't mind a few days at Bay Lake and a few days at Old Key West etc, then go the savings route.

 

[Deb & Bill]

Don't purchase an offsite resort and expect to be able to book onsite at seven months every time. Don't buy anything but GCV if you plan to go to DLR most of the time. Buy VB if you plan to go to VB most of the time. Buy HHI if you plan to go to HHI most of the time. If you want to go to WDW most of the time, buy a WDW resort where you like to stay.

 

[kboo]

Spring break isn't actually so bad except right near Easter, because schools all have different breaks for spring,

And even on this last trip, it wasn't that bad - I felt like Thanksgiving was FAR worse as far as crowds, even though most crowd calendars gave both weeks a 9-10 out of 10.

 

[DSLRuser]

We have direct points at Copper Creek. Have only stayed there 1x. (a 1br for 12 nights prior to a cruise) We just do not plan our disney trips 11 months out. Not how it works for us. 4-5 months is the norm.

@ 4-5 months, booking 1br, we have had no problem getting in to boardwalk 3x.

@3 months for food and wine we were forced to saratoga for a 2br. Even at 45 days out, saratoga still has room for this november.

Studios are much harder to get on short notice then 1 and 2 br

 

[Deb & Bill]

I don't think that in 22 years of owning DVC I ever referred to my dates as "whatever" season. It's always been by the month or the festival. I don't even have a clue what Adventure or Choice seasons are.

 

[Mommb]

If you want to book frequently at a non-home resort in a Studio, you need to be confident you'll be ready to book at exactly 7 months and/or be willing to split your stay. In the past few years, we've been able to get a 1-bedroom at Grand Californian and Beach Club and studios at Boardwalk and Polynesian at 7 months, but if we'd waited even a week, in many cases we would not have found availability for the full time we wanted.

We're going in February next year, and after booking a 1-bedroom at Beach Club as soon as we could, we decided two weeks later to try to add a studio (not necessarily adjacent). There were no studios at Boardwalk or Beach Club, and still aren't -- the only studios I could find were at Animal Kingdom Lodge and Saratoga, and now even AKL is available for only 1 of the 3 nights we want. There are also no longer any 1-bedrooms that are available for our entire stay, except at Saratoga.

That said, we have had luck booking for just a day or two a few months in advance (including a Concierge room at Animal Kingdom Lodge) so availability can exist, as long as you flexible.