We had dinner there during our trip last month. I believe our ADR was at 4:40 and we were seated closer to 5:00 (we were a bit late coming from AK after the parade).
I spoke with the gentleman at the host station while we were waiting. I was asking what their % of no-shows were on any given night. I figured that with the meal plans that would happen even more often. He told me they run about 30% no-shows every night.
So, since they have so many no-shows, they over-book. He told me that even if you take 30% no-shows into account they over-book. Thus, the later in the evening it gets, the further behind they will get.
The besst thing for us to do was eat a big breakfast, have a light snack and then an early dinner.
LeCellier is definitely a must-do, just do it early, or do it as a very late lunch. I believe the latest lunch reservation is 2:50 p.m.