Kentucky Derby 2021

[ZephyrHawk]

It's that time of year again!! Even though we literally just had the Run for the Roses 7 months ago.

I've been having a hard time getting into the Derby this year. I guess the way the whole Triple Crown was messed up last year (amongst a billion other things affected by Covid, of course), have made me less than enthusiastic about following the ponies recently. Anyways, here's the post positions and current odds.



I'm supposed to be hosting a virtual Derby watching party Saturday. So, I sat down and reviewed all the relevant Derby prep races earlier this week. I've come to the conclusion that you can't really argue against Essential Quality. He's done nothing wrong. Like...ever. So, I guess I have to bet the favorite. I'm picking the pair of Midnight Bourbon and Bourbonic to round out my trifecta.

Oh, and I like Search Results for the Oaks tomorrow.

Anyone else have any good picks? Or is everyone as ambivalent about this year's running as I am?

 

[CynBeth]

I do not know much about horse racing only watch the 3 big ones because my state hosts the second jewel of the triple crown so when it comes to the KD usually pick my favorites depending on the owner/trainer/jockey or the name of the horse.

 

[ZephyrHawk]

Ah. Maryland, Your Maryland.

Mind you, the Preakness turned out to be the best of the three races last year.

 

[OneOftheB's]

King Fury interests me, he's 2 for 3 at CD, which is a track that many horses love or hate and he should go off at a good price. There are always so many things that happen that affect the outcome- I hope for a clean trip for all the horses and a safe return to the barn and home for horses and riders. And no more drama like Maximum Securities DQ.

 

[chickapin parterre]

Wow...I can't wait for a movie to be made about any of these horses...and I thought California chrome was a stretch... but hey that is okay...California Chrome is a Disneyland horse trivia question

 

[olwyngdh]

We moved from Fort Knox to Georgia at Christmas and I was so accustomed to the whole Derby celebration that I am having a hard time even remembering that it is this weekend! I don't tend to pick a horse until I see them the day of the race and watch how they are moving and reacting.

 

[ZephyrHawk]

Well, there was a satisfying finish to the Oaks yesterday. Nice stretch duel between the two favorites. My horse came in 2nd.

Now I'm just sitting here and twiddling my thumbs, waiting for the race coverage to start. I could watch The First Saturday in May for the 10,000th time...

 

[neverlandsky]

Might be silly, yet I always look forward to seeing Larry & Danielynn Birkhead.

 

[supamaki]

In race 7 Gamine is the class of the day. The price is understandably super low, but a good single in your vertical bets.

I have a good feeling about the 1, masteroffoxhounds in the 11th

For the Derby, can't argue with EQ, i also like Hot Rod Charlie and Known Agenda to round out the tri.

But dont' sleep on longshot Sainthood. His last race he was basically stopped dead in his tracks and came back to finish 2nd. I'm throwing a few buck on him for fun.

Good luck all

 

[supamaki]

Well, there was a satisfying finish to the Oaks yesterday. Nice stretch duel between the two favorites. My horse came in 2nd.

Now I'm just sitting here and twiddling my thumbs, waiting for the race coverage to start. I could watch The First Saturday in May for the 10,000th time...

Coverage started at noon on NBC Sports

 

[AlohaNow]

Calling @DisneyHardin! Is DH watching a horse this year?

 

[DisneyHardin]

Calling @DisneyHardin! Is DH watching a horse this year?

No - this year with the numbers of spectators down so much, they didn't need nearly as much security, so the Sheriff Deputies were called on to guard the horses.

 

[chickapin parterre]

....I knew that domestic spending was keeping up with the collective taxed group

 

[neverlandsky]

DH picked Midnight Bourbon and I"m going with Hot Rod Charlie.

 

[chickapin parterre]

I am going with hot dog Charlie...my borhter in law is charlie and he is a hot dog on the golf course and the way he dresses ...and he was a hot dog on the baskeball court....how can I miss

 

[dclpluto]

The winning horse tested positive for a illegal drug for racing. Second test is underway. Owner saids the horse never got the drug.

 

[bcla]

The winning horse tested positive for a illegal drug for racing. Second test is underway. Owner saids the horse never got the drug.

I found it interesting that the amount was a little over double the allowed limit. I can't find the limit in Kentucky (I assume it's 10 picograms per milliliter in blood samples), but I could find it listed as a Class C drug in Kentucky horse racing. I see drugs on Class C that are familiar, such as ibuprofen, acetaminophen, and aspirin. The list contains a bunch of antihistamines such as fexofenadine (Allegra), cetirizine (Zrtec), and loratadine (Claritin).

https://khrc.ky.gov/Documents/Chapt...edication Classification Schedule - Final.pdf​

Class C drugs, medications, and substances are those (1) that are approved by the United States Food and Drug Administration and have a lesser potential to influence performance in the equine athlete than Class A drugs, medications, and substances and those Class B drugs, medications, and substances that are classified at that level because they have a high potential to influence performance and are approved by the United States Food and Drug Administration or (2) that lack approval by the United States Food and Drug Administration but have pharmacologic effects similar to certain Class D drugs, medications, or substances that are approved by the United States Food and Drug Administration.​

It's primarily used to reduce inflammation by topical application, but it could also be injected. I guess the concern is that it could be used to mask injury or perhaps get a horse to perform when it's otherwise injured. And it would need to be a lot in order to show up at that high level in a blood test.

 

[Communicore1991]

I found it interesting that the amount was a little over double the allowed limit. I can't find the limit in Kentucky (I assume it's 10 picograms per milliliter in blood samples), but I could find it listed as a Class C drug in Kentucky horse racing. I see drugs on Class C that are familiar, such as ibuprofen, acetaminophen, and aspirin. The list contains a bunch of antihistamines such as fexofenadine (Allegra), cetirizine (Zrtec), and loratadine (Claritin).

https://khrc.ky.gov/Documents/Chapter 8-020-1-Drug and Medication Classification Schedule - Final.pdf​

Class C drugs, medications, and substances are those (1) that are approved by the United States Food and Drug Administration and have a lesser potential to influence performance in the equine athlete than Class A drugs, medications, and substances and those Class B drugs, medications, and substances that are classified at that level because they have a high potential to influence performance and are approved by the United States Food and Drug Administration or (2) that lack approval by the United States Food and Drug Administration but have pharmacologic effects similar to certain Class D drugs, medications, or substances that are approved by the United States Food and Drug Administration.​

It's primarily used to reduce inflammation by topical application, but it could also be injected. I guess the concern is that it could be used to mask injury or perhaps get a horse to perform when it's otherwise injured. And it would need to be a lot in order to show up at that high level in a blood test.

KY law allows the horse to have the drug, but not within 14 days of racing. Picograms is a very small unit of measurement so would it really need to be a lot in order to show a "high level"? Given the sizes of horses, I imagine the doses of medication given to horses must be significantly higher for horses than humans and with the half life of medications, it could have been from quite some time ago, or administered as a very small dose to the horse.

What I found interesting is that Bob Baffert says the horse has NEVER had betamethasone so the fact any amount was in the sample doesn't make sense. The horse is based in California and he said the amount of documentation required out there will actually help prove the case that the horse did not have the drug. My hunch is the second sample they are now testing will also come back positive since it was sampled at the same time right after the race. So there will be more news because the horse will end up being disqualified. However, over the long term it will come out that there was some sort of foul play or "mistake" involved in what occurred.

 

[OneOftheB's]

I have several friends who work in the TB industry. Baffert is not well liked because he does push the limits or cross them, drug wise, with his horses. If you look back at his more high profile horses who failed their post race drug test, you’ll see all sorts of excuses: blamed an employee who was using a lidocaine patch for horses who tested positive, later had to redact that blame because the employee was no where near at least one of the horses; another couple of horses tested positive in Arkansas, including one of his Triple Crown winners Justify, because of tainted hay, etc.
Yes things can get contaminated but you don’t see this level of multiple failures in any other trainers barn who still has a license. I say where there is smoke, there’s fire.
ETA: the drug that Medina Spirit tested positive for actually has a zero threshold in KY, the earlier reports of a 10 picogram limit is incorrect; the drug rule for that one was changed to zero in August 2020, previously it was 10 pg. The horse had a level of 21 picograms in his system. And some people have claimed that it’s used to treat skin conditions. It’s also injected in horses to treat inflammation.

 

[_19disnA]

The interviews Baffert did sounded like the type of person who is amazed they got caught. Saw other stories where several of his prior horses have also failed drug tests. For him to be 'amazed' doesn't surprise me.