Kentucky Derby 2010

[ZephyrHawk]

So it's time again for my annual Kentucky Derby thread!

I have to start a little earlier this year because I'll be leaving for Kentucky in a week, woohoo!

So, with all the long shots making their way into the Derby off of a single prep race win it's hard to know what to do this year. Sure there's Eskendereya, being consistent and dominant, but who wants to bet a prohibitive favorite? Personally, I like Lookin at Lucky. He may have lost twice, but I liked both of his losses.

Thoughts? Comments? Betting strategy?

I'm also taking comments on the Kentucky Oaks, but I'm assuming most people don't have as much of a handle on the fillies.

 

[Rose&Mike]

Haven't started hearing too much talk about who is in the Derby yet, but as a local--I'd like to be the first to say--Welcome!!! Enjoy our great town! Here's hoping for gorgeous weather and a great Derby!

 

[ZephyrHawk]

Haven't started hearing too much talk about who is in the Derby yet, but as a local--I'd like to be the first to say--Welcome!!! Enjoy our great town! Here's hoping for gorgeous weather and a great Derby!

Thanks! I'm super excited to be coming down to see you all! I've been sort of horse racng obsessed since the late 80's and this is my first Derby appearance.

 

[Rose&Mike]

Thanks! I'm super excited to be coming down to see you all! I've been sort of horse racng obsessed since the late 80's and this is my first Derby appearance.

That's so exciting. I have lived here for 16 years, and it is quite an event! Most locals don't go to the Derby, but there are lots and lots of parties. Usually around the beginning of April, people start asking what are you doing for Derby? My DH is running the mini-marathon this weekend, and it goes through Churchill Downs, and last weekend we had our big fireworks and airshow to kick off the two weeks until Derby. I hope the weather is good. Spring weather in Kentucky can bring anything. We've had days in the 80's and days with a nasty cold rain, so pack for anything!

 

[Hillbeans]

Zephyrhawk - Enjoy your trip to the Derby - I always look forward to your threads around this time of year. I'm not quite sure who i'm liking yet for the Derby, and I was sort of disappointed there was no Zenyatta vs Rachel Alexandra race last month. I should ask my dad who he likes as he's the handicapper in our family.

Hope the experience lives up to your anticipation! Enjoy!

 

[Deb in IA]

Ah, yes. Louisville, KY, my birthplace, and mostly, my hometown, although I really grew up over in the Indiana side of the river.

Enjoy the Derby, and have a mint julep! Do you have your hat yet?


As for the race, well, I like Super Saver, and we know Calvin Borel can ride. He had a good run in the Arkansas Derby. And Line of David, who won the Arkansas, showed some good speed, leading from the begining and fighting off the challenges from Super Saver and Dublin at the end.

I think the winner of the Santa Anita, Sidney's Candy, also has a good shot.

 

[Cogswel_Cogs]

Isn't there a biggie trying to make money in tomorrows race?

 

[ZephyrHawk]

I'm not quite sure who i'm liking yet for the Derby, and I was sort of disappointed there was no Zenyatta vs Rachel Alexandra race last month.

I KNOW!!!

However, Rachel has been posting bullets every time out since she moved to Churchill. I'm crossing my fingers for one (or dear Lord, BOTH) of them to show up in the La Troienne, it's the right price and the right distance for both...and it's on the Oaks undercard!

Enjoy the Derby, and have a mint julep! Do you have your hat yet?

I got two because I'm heading to the Oaks as well. So. Incredibly. Excited.

As for the race, well, I like Super Saver, and we know Calvin Borel can ride. He had a good run in the Arkansas Derby. And Line of David, who won the Arkansas, showed some good speed, leading from the begining and fighting off the challenges from Super Saver and Dublin at the end.

I'd stick with Super Saver. Line of David showed some heart hanging in to the end like he did, but if you look at the race closely, his nose is tucked through the whole backstrech. As quick as his fractions were, he was being held back, and that's why he was able to hold out. He won't be allowed to do that in the Derby. I love Dublin for exotics! He's a baby from the first crop of Afleet Alex, so there's a lot of hope for him.

Isn't there a biggie trying to make money in tomorrows race?

Tomorrow? Not sure who you're referring to Cogswell, but this Saturday is the Derby Trial and at least 2 horses are going into it just to try and make enough money last minute to win a berth in the Derby gate. That's taking Derby fever to an extreme in my opinion. How well do they expect their stars to perform after a week's rest?

 

[Cogswel_Cogs]

I thought the Derby trial was in the mioddle of the week as to give horses a last chance.
I was thinking the Zito horse Jackson Blend.
Didn't he run really well in one of the Preps.

 

[ZephyrHawk]

I thought the Derby trial was in the mioddle of the week as to give horses a last chance.

Well, a long time ago, horses raced back after a week all the time. Champion and Triple Crown winner Whirlaway raced in an allowance between the Preakness and Belmont because his trainer was worried he'd get lazy otherwise. Based on that mentality of a former generation we set the date of the Derby trial. It's run opening day at Churchill Downs, which this year is April 24th. I know it because I've got a wedding that day and can't watch the race online (I'll be feeding my other unhealth obsession, photography). So it sort of is a last chance to get into the Derby. It's possible Pleasant Prince or Aikenite or one of the other horses entered in the Trial could go on to race in (and possibly win) the Derby. It's just rather unlikely.

I was thinking the Zito horse Jackson Blend.
Didn't he run really well in one of the Preps.

Jackson Bend is a very good choice. He's finished second the last three times out, all in graded Derby preps, and twice to easy favorite Eskendereya. His one knock is his breeding which is....basically noexistent. But hey, it's not all about genetics.

 

[SDFgirl]

I don't pay much attention to the horses (shameful, I know ) but I do want to say WELCOME TO LOUISVILLE!

You will love it here - I hope you have a great time on your trip!

 

[ZephyrHawk]

I don't pay much attention to the horses (shameful, I know ) but I do want to say WELCOME TO LOUISVILLE!

You will love it here - I hope you have a great time on your trip!

No shame, I'm well aware that 95% of the population is not as interested in my favorite sport as I am. I have a huge poster of Secretariat leaning next to my TV (and signed by everyone but the late Lucien Lauren), what normal person decorates with horse racing memorabilia? However, thanks for the welcome!

 

[busyshrew]

I have a confession to make: I got my DD6 completely hooked on horse-racing. I love horses, love riding, and OF COURSE I watch the Triple Crown races!

So last year, after watching the Oaks, there was my little girl, (5 at the time), playing with her Schleich horses, chanting, "It's Rachel Alexandra in the lead, it's Rachel Alexandra all the way..."

I can only tell my horseriding friends about this. Everyone else would think I'm raising my daughter to become a bet-happy bookie!

 

[Minnie]

I've been horse crazy since I was very young and finally "live the dream" with 10 acres of our own and two Quarter horses in our pasture

I don't follow horse racing but follow the Triple Crown races every year

 

[ZephyrHawk]

I have a confession to make: I got my DD6 completely hooked on horse-racing. I love horses, love riding, and OF COURSE I watch the Triple Crown races!

So last year, after watching the Oaks, there was my little girl, (5 at the time), playing with her Schleich horses, chanting, "It's Rachel Alexandra in the lead, it's Rachel Alexandra all the way..."

I can only tell my horseriding friends about this. Everyone else would think I'm raising my daughter to become a bet-happy bookie!

You are starting a bit early, I was all of 9 when my mom "forced" me to watch the 1989 Belmont stakes. The penny red Easy Goer edging out black stallion Sunday Silence. It's been an unending passion ever since. My first bet (through my mom) was on some minor claiming race at the old Erie Downs the same year. I won. That was it for me. Forget other sports, I was hooked. I grew up to be a respectable lawyer, go figure.

Start her out with Walter Farley and move up to William Nack. Also, The First Saturday in May is a great DVD.

I've been horse crazy since I was very young and finally "live the dream" with 10 acres of our own and two Quarter horses in our pasture

I don't follow horse racing but follow the Triple Crown races every year

Well, I showed Arabs in high school, but I have neither the time nor money to "live the dream" any more. Now all I can do is peruse my weekly Bloodhorse publications...obsessively.

 

[busyshrew]

Thank you for the recommendation - I knew about Farley (of course!)

So far, DD has been reading the "Billy and Blaze" series by Anderson and she adores them. I am hoping to graduate her to Marguerite Henry & Walter Farley when she gets older. I am sure she will read the Pony Club series too.

I am DEFINITELY checking out William Nack - never heard of him!!!

 

[ZephyrHawk]

I am DEFINITELY checking out William Nack - never heard of him!!!

He's a horse biographer extraordinaire. I have worn my copy of his Secretariat: The Making of a Champion nearly to pieces.

And update for filly lovers, it seems Todd Pletcher, not satisfied with the 6 colts he has qualifying for the Derby, is seriously considering his star filly, Devil May Care, as well.

 

[Deb in IA]

Hope you are having a good time, ZephyrHawk!

OK, so now with Eskendereya out, who is everyone rooting for now?

I'll have to add Paddy O'Prado now to my list to root for, especially since he's owned by Iowa-based Donegal Racing, headed by Jerry Crawford, an attorney from Des Moines. Paddy is believed to be only the second Iowa horse to be in the Kentucky Derby, and he had a lightening fast 5 furlongs on Saturday.

 

[ZephyrHawk]

Hope you are having a good time, ZephyrHawk!

Hey! Haven't left just yet, but I am pouring over every little iota of information coming out of the Downs.

Esky is, indeed, out. He has an undetermined injury. Rule is also out, he failed to train well. That means that Jackson Bend, previously 21 on the earning list, is in the gate. Also, Devil May Care will be going in the Derby, not the Oaks, so we're gonna have at least some girls on the track this year!

The last nagging questions remain over Noble's Promise (who was injured in the Arkansas Derby and caught a cold afterwards) and Interactif (who really is a turf horse). We'll know by tomorrow who's on the list for sure, and post positions will draw Wednesday. I'll be in KY by then, watching the hopefuls work over the track and having buffet breakfast in the posh Aristides room.

OK, so now with Eskendereya out, who is everyone rooting for now?

A good question. My favorite, Lookin at Lucky, is now everyone's favorite...and I hate playing favorites. I might do Noble's Promise "across the board", assuming he goes in, of course. Jackson Bend and Dublin are also good exotic choices. I might have to bet the filly to win, just so in case she comes in first I can keep the ticket.

I'll have to add Paddy O'Prado now to my list to root for, especially since he's owned by Iowa-based Donegal Racing, headed by Jerry Crawford, an attorney from Des Moines. Paddy is believed to be only the second Iowa horse to be in the Kentucky Derby, and he had a lightening fast 5 furlongs on Saturday.

Paddy's got some style to him. I'm not sure he's really a dirt horse, but he has been working well. Also, I'm kinda partial to his trainer, Dale Romans, ever since I saw The First Saturday in May.

 

[Bearvet]

DH and I met on a bus trip to the Derby sponsored by the OSU vet club - back in 1980!!! Yep - 30 years ago! So it's a tradition for us to always watch the Derby together. Just wanted to share.