Just bought Aulani!!

[tjkraz]

Those Aulani points owners beyond the 65% will be buying their percentage of a unit with many blackout dates (black out dates that only open up if that fixed week owner "opts out" and uses their share in the normal DVC system)

The specific unit that one owns never really matters in terms of ability to secure reservations. So while its true that a points owner may share ownership of a legal Unit with a "Guaranteed-week" owner, the points owner will not be completely barred from booking certain calendar dates.

What it appears WILL happen is that points availability will fluctuate based upon the number of Guaranteed-weeks ownership sold for any given date.

Let's say that DVC sells the full 35% in Guaranteed weeks for Week 51 (which usually includes Christmas.) Any points owners wishing to book that week will only have access to 65% of all villas. But for Week 38 which falls in mid-September, DVC is only able to sell 5% as guaranteed weeks. Over that period, 95% of all villas will be available to the same population of points owners.

The net result is that there will be more availability to points owners for the less desirable dates and reduced availability during the popular dates. I guess that's the point of paying the 10% premium to lock in certain dates.

As wdrl pointed out a few posts ago, if you were going to visit during the same timeframe frequently it may actually be worthwhile to pay the 10% to guarantee a certain hard-to-book period for the next 50 years. On those occasions when the points are to be used elsewhere--or even for other dates at Aulani--it's easy enough to "opt out" and covert that year's ownership to standard DVC points.

At $100/pt that would be $1.1 BILLION of revenue!

So what do u think it cost to buy the property and build the resort?

I bet there is 50% margin in this DVC resort.

In terms of the DVC component, I suspect this will be their least profitable resort...at least of all they've opened in the last decade.

Dean has often said that marketing expenses alone can account for 50% of the developer cost in a typical timeshare. It's expensive to train, employ and house a sales staff. They will have to pay for marketing literature, expenses associated with sales presentations, incentive stays for potential clients, etc.

The Hawaii land cost DVC $120 million. Compare that to essentially $0 they've paid for land for the WDW and DL resorts. (I'm sure some back office bookkeeping was done to move dollars from one department to another but fact is Disney already owned all of the land they developed in WDW and DL.)

Factor in the remote nature of the project (no existing Disney support services in Hawaii), higher costs for pretty much everything in Hawaii, opening sales centers and training new staff in HI and Tokyo, etc.

It's a far cry from a new WDW resort where they are working with familiar contractors, managers are already entrenched nearby, and marketing amounts to changing filming a new DVD and changing signs in the kiosks.

 

[hakepb]

TJ, I do understand that the system may compensate for most of the issues with certain unit' ownership. (Unless there was some unlikely worst-case scenario/disaster where 2/3 the building was unoccupiable, with insurance buyouts of all the points only physical units and all that was left is a DVC with no points availability many weeks)

I mostly brought up units for ease of discussion, because this availability issue will impact all owners at Auluni. The first 65% may not be immune and I think that concept is a little more clear when you consider specfic units.

 

[funatdisney]

Subscribing to this post. I am finding it very fascinating!

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

The net result is that there will be more availability to points owners for the less desirable dates and reduced availability during the popular dates. I guess that's the point of paying the 10% premium to lock in certain dates.

And overall this really means that it's only a benefit to DVC (more initial revenue) and the few people that want a fixed week. It will be a detriment to all other owners b/c it reduces the availability at the prime times.

At first when initial info came out I thought it would be pretty neutral in nature and while I still don't think it's a big impact it doesn't benefit the current owners of DVC or ones who purchase points at Aulani.

 

[wendyinoc]

I went to the D23 event tonight at Disneyland for Hawaii. They did not show a presentation at the event which I find was odd. They had a small model and that was it. We played Simon says instead of talking about Hawaii. I broght friends hoping to show them Hawaii so they would buy in as well. I had to apoligize all the way home.

 

[shellabell]

I went to the D23 event tonight at Disneyland for Hawaii. They did not show a presentation at the event which I find was odd. They had a small model and that was it. We played Simon says instead of talking about Hawaii. I broght friends hoping to show them Hawaii so they would buy in as well. I had to apoligize all the way home.

What the heck? I was hoping to hear from my brother because he went tonight; now I know why he didn't call! We are going to the DVC presentation Saturday. Did they try to get people to come back this weekend?

 

[dzorn]

Well I informed DH about the fixed week option. He wanted to know how much of a discount they were giving for choosing that option.

Denise in MI

 

[DenLo]

Thanks, Keith and SoCal!
I also need to get organized on the family history end of things for our Hawaii trip. Hubby's uncle was an Arizona survivor, but was lost later in the Solomon Sea. We've got all the letters he wrote home to his mom about the attack, his medals, his original sailor's cap that has "Arizona" on it, some pillows that the sailors sent home to relatives for Christmas just a week before the attack (monogrammed with a message to their moms and the Arizona on it... pretty cool actually), and some other memorabilia that we would like to donate to the Arizona museum while we are there.

FYI if anyone is interested... Tommy's bio on the USS Arizona website

I'll check out your uncle in law's bio soon. It's really nice of you and your husband to donate his items to the Arizona Museum. It's is such a moving experience everytime I go. I am still amazed that the ship is still leaking oil. Somehow I think that's just a reminder to us all to remember what those sailors sacrificed for us.

I just read Tommy's bio. He was definitely a hero and deserves a place at the museum. And so young too.

I went to the D23 event tonight at Disneyland for Hawaii. They did not show a presentation at the event which I find was odd. They had a small model and that was it. We played Simon says instead of talking about Hawaii. I broght friends hoping to show them Hawaii so they would buy in as well. I had to apoligize all the way home.

Well that's a let down. I guess people were right that Disney couldn't do much because they did not advertise the event as a sales pitch for the DVC in the fine print.

Well I informed DH about the fixed week option. He wanted to know how much of a discount they were giving for choosing that option.

Denise in MI

That's a good question. We forgot to ask our guide when we talked to him. Does anyone know? Dzorn if you find out will you let us know on this thread? Thanks.

 

[DVCconvert]

Originally Posted by silmarg
At $100/pt that would be $1.1 BILLION of revenue!

So what do u think it cost to buy the property and build the resort?

My understanding is that the project budget is approximately $ 800 Million.

 

[wdrl]

The net result is that there will be more availability to points owners for the less desirable dates and reduced availability during the popular dates. I guess that's the point of paying the 10% premium to lock in certain dates.

And overall this really means that it's only a benefit to DVC (more initial revenue) and the few people that want a fixed week. It will be a detriment to all other owners b/c it reduces the availability at the prime times.

I'm still sitting on the fence regarding the issue whether the Fixed Week Option will actually reduce availability for the most desirable dates at Aulani. On one hand, competition amongst DVC Points Owners for the most choice dates is already intense at the existing DVC resorts. With the Points system, there is nothing to prevent a huge number of members from trying to squeeze into a limited number of choice dates. Look at how quickly early December books up at most WDW resorts. The net result is that there is more availability for points owners for the less desirable dates and less availability for the more desirable dates.

If 35% of Aulani is committed to the Fixed Week Option, that still leaves the Aulani Points owners with 65% of the resort. As tjkraz mentioned before, Aulani then becomes a 300-villa resort instead of a 460-villa resort. Competition amongst Point Owners for those 300 villas will be no different than what is seen at the existing DVC resorts. The fact that there are 160 villas devoted to the Fixed Week Owners neither helps nor hurts the Points owners.

DVD's intent is to sell Aulani as a 65/35 split for all weeks. If that actually happens, then Points Owners will find Aulani to be no different than any other DVC resort. But here is where my uncertainty comes into play: If DVD is unsuccessful is selling Fixed Week contracts for most weeks AND then sells those underlying points as points-based contracts, Aulani could end up with an imbalance in availability. For example, lets say that Christmas week achieves the 65/35 split. But for every other week only 10% is sold as Fixed Week contracts and DVD sells 90% as Points contracts. The net result would be that about 89-90% of Aulani's total membership base would be Points owners. Yet, for Christmas week, only 65% of the resort is available to the points owners. If this disparity occurs, then I think the Fixed Week Option will make it harder for the Aulani Points Owners to secure the choice dates.

To me, its a big guessing game how all of this will play out. Will the Fixed Week Option be popular? What happens if it more popular than the Points Option? Will the international clientele actually buy into Aulani? And how will the international members impact booking patterns at Aulani?

Lets face it: I'm having way too much fun!!

 

[DenLo]

By the way, based on information released by dvcnews.com and the Aulani Point chart that was released last week, I estimate that Aulani will bring about 11,600,000 points into the DVC system. This includes the 35% that may be allotted to the Fixed Week inventory.

At $100/pt that would be $1.1 BILLION of revenue!

So what do u think it cost to buy the property and build the resort?

I bet there is 50% margin in this DVC resort.

My understanding is that the project budget is approximately $ 800 Million.

Keep in mind it will take years to sell out Aulani. BLT has been on the fast track for selling points (perhaps the fastest pace for selling of all of the DVC resorts) and it has been open for just under two years and probably has another year and half to two years before BLT sells out. When considering the 65% of the Aulani points only villas it still will be slightly larger than BLT so that means it'll will take 4 or 5 years minimum to sell the points and who knows how long to sell all of the fixed week villas. That's a lot of expenses over many years coming off of the $300 million profit.

 

[hakepb]

Keep in mind it will take years to sell out Aulani. BLT has been on the fast track for selling points (perhaps the fastest pace for selling of all of the DVC resorts) and it has been open for just under two years and probably has another year and half to two years before BLT sells out. When considering the 65% of the Aulani points only villas it still will be slightly larger than BLT so that means it'll will take 4 or 5 years minimum to sell the points and who knows how long to sell all of the fixed week villas. That's a lot of expenses over many years coming off of the $300 million profit.

Doesn't the "project" also include building a nearly equally large cash hotel and a convention center? I think Disney is basically getting a free hotel from DVC.

 

[hakepb]

I'm still sitting on the fence regarding the issue whether the Fixed Week Option will actually reduce availability for the most desirable dates at Aulani. On one hand, competition amongst DVC Points Owners for the most choice dates is already intense at the existing DVC resorts. With the Points system, there is nothing to prevent a huge number of members from trying to squeeze into a limited number of choice dates. Look at how quickly early December books up at most WDW resorts. The net result is that there is more availability for points owners for the less desirable dates and less availability for the more desirable dates.

If 35% of Aulani is committed to the Fixed Week Option, that still leaves the Aulani Points owners with 65% of the resort. As tjkraz mentioned before, Aulani then becomes a 300-villa resort instead of a 460-villa resort. Competition amongst Point Owners for those 300 villas will be no different than what is seen at the existing DVC resorts. The fact that there are 160 villas devoted to the Fixed Week Owners neither helps nor hurts the Points owners.

DVD's intent is to sell Aulani as a 65/35 split for all weeks. If that actually happens, then Points Owners will find Aulani to be no different than any other DVC resort. But here is where my uncertainty comes into play: If DVD is unsuccessful is selling Fixed Week contracts for most weeks AND then sells those underlying points as points-based contracts, Aulani could end up with an imbalance in availability. For example, lets say that Christmas week achieves the 65/35 split. But for every other week only 10% is sold as Fixed Week contracts and DVD sells 90% as Points contracts. The net result would be that about 89-90% of Aulani's total membership base would be Points owners. Yet, for Christmas week, only 65% of the resort is available to the points owners. If this disparity occurs, then I think the Fixed Week Option will make it harder for the Aulani Points Owners to secure the choice dates.

To me, its a big guessing game how all of this will play out. Will the Fixed Week Option be popular? What happens if it more popular than the Points Option? Will the international clientele actually buy into Aulani? And how will the international members impact booking patterns at Aulani?

Lets face it: I'm having way too much fun!!

If that happens, walking is dead. It would then be possible for 70% of a weeks availability to start walking in early dec, but some get blocked from walking into christmas

 

[Dean]

good point. I wonder if they have a limit on this option for that very reason?

I haven't read the entire thread so I hope I'm not being redundant. This makes sense for HI. It's likely they do have a % limit for any given week but it's likely that it is 50%. I assume you get the option of taking your week or the points. Actually 10% isn't too bad, I think the difference for Marriott on Maui was much higher. Xmas, NY, President's week, etc might be a good option for that. It may be answered later but I assume one can buy both a view type and a week, is it a fixed unit option, if so, that would be a very reasonable option to guarantee the best units/views.

 

[wdrl]

Here is a map showing Aulani's three phases. It looks like on opening day there will only be a small portion of DVC villas available. Phase 1 is outlined in yellow on the map below. Of course, everything about Aulani seems to be on a faster time table than originally planned. Perhaps phases 2 and 3 will open sooner than planned.

 

[lilpooh108]

Wow that looks like alot of obstructed view rooms and pool views, and not too many ocean views will be available for early Aulani stays. One side of the building in Phase 1 actually looks like it stares straight into Phase 3 (probably standard view, convention center). I hope I'm reading that map right. If the bottom of the map faces the lagoon, then that means there aren't too many "full on" ocean views available either. That's a little disappointing.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I'm still sitting on the fence regarding the issue whether the Fixed Week Option will actually reduce availability for the most desirable dates at Aulani. On one hand, competition amongst DVC Points Owners for the most choice dates is already intense at the existing DVC resorts. With the Points system, there is nothing to prevent a huge number of members from trying to squeeze into a limited number of choice dates. Look at how quickly early December books up at most WDW resorts. The net result is that there is more availability for points owners for the less desirable dates and less availability for the more desirable dates.

If 35% of Aulani is committed to the Fixed Week Option, that still leaves the Aulani Points owners with 65% of the resort. As tjkraz mentioned before, Aulani then becomes a 300-villa resort instead of a 460-villa resort. Competition amongst Point Owners for those 300 villas will be no different than what is seen at the existing DVC resorts. The fact that there are 160 villas devoted to the Fixed Week Owners neither helps nor hurts the Points owners.

DVD's intent is to sell Aulani as a 65/35 split for all weeks. If that actually happens, then Points Owners will find Aulani to be no different than any other DVC resort. But here is where my uncertainty comes into play: If DVD is unsuccessful is selling Fixed Week contracts for most weeks AND then sells those underlying points as points-based contracts, Aulani could end up with an imbalance in availability. For example, lets say that Christmas week achieves the 65/35 split. But for every other week only 10% is sold as Fixed Week contracts and DVD sells 90% as Points contracts. The net result would be that about 89-90% of Aulani's total membership base would be Points owners. Yet, for Christmas week, only 65% of the resort is available to the points owners. If this disparity occurs, then I think the Fixed Week Option will make it harder for the Aulani Points Owners to secure the choice dates.

The slight problem I could see happening is that DVC apparently said they will sell up to 35% of any week as a fixed week - not that they'll hold to 35% of all weeks being sold as fixed. This may immediately start an imbalance in the prime times. If they sell only the prime weeks and unsold off season weeks are left for point sales it's not far off to assume that a good number of those point sales are likely to be looking at booking the prime times. The imbalance will require point reallocations to try and push people to the slower times where the resort is at low occupancy etc.

That 10% premium paid for a fixed week could end up being a real bargain if other's buy points with the intention of staying at the same time and then see a reallocation that might in essence bump up their point requirements above the 10%.

It is a pretty big resort though so it will be interesting to see what happens.

 

[hakepb]

Wow that looks like alot of obstructed view rooms and pool views, and not too many ocean views will be available for early Aulani stays. One side of the building in Phase 1 actually looks like it stares straight into Phase 3 (probably standard view, convention center). I hope I'm reading that map right. If the bottom of the map faces the lagoon, then that means there aren't too many "full on" ocean views available either. That's a little disappointing.

I believe the actual building is somewhat sawtoothed so instead of facing the pool or the non-dvc side, most of those rooms also face the ocean.

 

[tjkraz]

The slight problem I could see happening is that DVC apparently said they will sell up to 35% of any week as a fixed week - not that they'll hold to 35% of all weeks being sold as fixed. This may immediately start an imbalance in the prime times. If they sell only the prime weeks and unsold off season weeks are left for point sales it's not far off to assume that a good number of those point sales are likely to be looking at booking the prime times. The imbalance will require point reallocations to try and push people to the slower times where the resort is at low occupancy etc.

I agree what what you are saying, but will add two comments:

1. It's entirely possible that this was factored into the original point charts. The supply of rooms available for peak times is likely to be less than non-peak. But it should not have been difficult for Disney to assume that it will sell a lot of Week 51 and 52 and not so much Week 38 and 39.

Nevertheless, Disney is still just making guesses as to demand so reallocations are a reality we have to live with going forward.

2. Consider that the Guaranteed weeks will also be MEETING demand for certain guests.

Hypothetical figures: Without any guaranteed weeks 500 people want to book the week of Christmas and there are only 460 villas. 40 do not get what they are seeking.

With the Guaranteed weeks, demand should be about the same (people aren't going to pay that 10% premium unless they plan to take advantage of it often.) So you still have 500 people wanting to visit. The only difference is that 160 of them have a guaranteed reservation. That leaves you with 340 people trying to book the 300 available villas. We're still left with 40 who will not get a room.

There may be some fluctuations in demand since some Guaranteed weeks buyers will feel pigeonholed into their set dates. But overall, I think the impact on availability will be negligible. Most of those guaranteed people would still be calling at 11 months to book.

So yes, the number of available villas is smaller for dates where DVC has sold Guaranteed weeks. But the number of callers is also smaller by a very similar proportion.

 

[dis-happy]

RE the 10% surcharge for fixed week:

Is that 10% more $$$ added to the purchase price?

Or 10% more points required (which the member then pays annual MF on for the life of the contract)?