January 4 & 5 crowd predictions?

[NewbieMouse]

Just wondering about the crowd predictions for January 4 & 5. Touring plans has DCA pegged at 10/10 Monday and 9/10 Tuesday, with DLR at an 8/10 both days. I understand that the AP blackouts will be lifted that day (and that LA schools are still on break), so it makes sense that AP holders will be coming through to check out (1) the holiday stuff before it gets taken down, (b) Fantasmic, etc., before Rivers of America gets drained, and (c) Season of the Force, and (d) Aladdin before it closes. But I'm confused at why DCA would be more crowded than DL given those factors. They're running early entry at both parks on Monday, so I'm trying to figure out where to start given that fact (we won't have access). Any thoughts on these crowd predictions?

Honestly, I torture myself by toying with the idea to stay onsite every year, but seeing those crowds really frightens me. I've ruled it out for the entire week as I can't justify that, but I could actually do DLH for the first two nights to get EE on Monday and Tuesday, saving my MM for Thursday that week. It would cost me an extra $267 overall to do so. Decisions, decisions....

 

[StayClassy]

I didn't realize they were expecting such heavy crowds... Those are the first two days of my trip, lol.

 

[figment_jii]

I would guess that Touring Plans is anticipating an uptick in crowds in DCA due to the Three Kings Day Celebration (Dia de los Reyes) that runs from January 2 through 6.

 

[NewbieMouse]

I didn't realize they were expecting such heavy crowds... Those are the first two days of my trip, lol.

I know, right?!? That's why I chose to come in January instead of in December, although I'm not sure it will make a difference for those first two days.

I would guess that Touring Plans is anticipating an uptick in crowds in DCA due to the Three Kings Day Celebration (Dia de los Reyes) that runs from January 2 through 6.

I didn't realize that - thanks. That makes a bot more sense. I'm afraid to ask, but what does a 10/10 crowd look like?

 

[ArchOwl]

I would honestly be shocked if DCA were more crowded than DL. It seems unlikely. Touring Plans doesn't always make sense anyway. I would just plan on it being crowded at both parks. The levels aren't really helpful when basically every day during the holiday season is a 9 or 10, lol. Because there is a difference between NYE and Jan 4th, but Touring Plans doesn't really help you distinguish them.

I have been at the parks the first day the APs are unblocked after the holidays and it is very busy. It is especially noticeable in the parking and transportation, so if possible onsite and within walking distance are best. Early entry is very helpful during these extremely busy times and especially when both parks have EE. If it were in my budget I would consider it. Have fun!

 

[figment_jii]

I have to agree that you can only really take the Touring Plan numbers with a grain of salt. They're useful for planning (using them along with other resources to get a sense of what the parks could be like when you're there). As ArchOwl said, the problem with the most recent Touring Plans updates is that they stuck with their 0 to 10 scale and adjusted the statistics so that they're now mostly predicting 9s and 10s which isn't really helpful. They needed to either add numbers to their metric (e.g., go from 0 to 12 so that the period between XMas and New Years could be different from mid-November) or they needed to adjust what each number meant (i.e., adjust that a "9" day now means an average wait of 60 minutes instead of 45 minutes).

I've also been in the parks on a day when Touring Plans gave it a "9" and "10" and it was busy. Expect very long attraction and very long food lines (if at all possible, avoid eating at prime dining times unless you have an ADR). If you want to eat TS, be sure to have an ADR because most places will be turning away walk-ups. Basically, expect everything to be busy and for it take longer to do anything. Go with lots of patience.