January 3/4 now predicted to be a 10 at MK (Touring Plans)

[lbwilliams]

Like many people, I subscribe to Touring Plans and use their crowd calendar for planning purposes. In June 2016, I planned a DW vacation from January 3 - 10, 2017 after seeing the crowds were expected to be moderate at most parks on those dates. We rented DVC points for Poly on January 2, 3 with the intention of going to MK on January 3,4. Now, Touring Plans has those dates booked as a 10. Yet the Disney hours for MK still show 9am - 9pm or 9am - 8pm, which seem very short for a 10 crowd level.

My problem is that my husband had a failed hip surgery that causes him immense pain if he stands too long. He can walk (constant pacing) or he can sit, but cannot stand. Shorter lines (and places to sit/room to pace) was key to a pain-free vacation. I'm thinking we should scrap the whole vacation and just take the loss on the DVC ressie unless the hours will be extended or the crowd levels get revised down. I'm very confused by the jump from a 4 crowd level in MK (predicted level for January 4 as of June) and the now 10 crowd level (predicted level for January 4 now). Any advice? Anyone have a similar experience or been at the parks the first couple days of January?

Thanks!

 

[cvjw]

That is why I don't put any stock in TP crowd calendars anymore. They have done this to several of our past trips - raise the crowd level closer to the trip date.

OP, that will be a super busy week. We have visited that week a few times. The 3rd and 4th won't be as busy as the New year's eve or day, but it will be wall to wall people. The MK closed to capacity one year while we were there right after New year's day.

I don't think I would cancel, but I would tamper my low crowd expectations. It is still a nice time to visit and see all the Christmas decorations still in place.

 

[Kristine316]

I suggest you see what other crowd calendars are predicting. Check Easywdw and see what he thinks.

I don't think that first week in January is slow anymore. It sounds like TP may have underestimated to begin with. It may get revised down from a "10" but I highly doubt it will go back down to a "4" again.

I have never been in early January but, just from reading the forums I think it will probably be very busy. Disney probably wouldn't extend their hours till much closer to the arrival date so, the fact it's only open till 9pm right now means practically zero at this point. Assume those hours will get extended at some point.

Maybe look into a motorized scooter for your husband? Even in slower periods there are lines at the major attractions. If it is difficult for him to stand in a line for any length of time WDW will be rough on him no matter how "slow" it is and if it's half way busy it would be brutal. I know he is able to move around ok so a scooter may seem extreme but, at least he would be able to sit while he waits in line and if his hip really starts bothering him he has the scooter to use.

I think the scooters are vacation savers for many people. They make a WDW vacation possible for people who could never go otherwise.

I hope you get some good advice here and are able to make it work.

 

[RachaelA]

That's winter break for most schools by me still.

 

[lbwilliams]

Everyone - thank you for the advice. I will look into the scooter. Can they be taken into most lines?

 

[limabeanmom2003]

Rundisney marathon weekend is from January 4-8 so that will play a part in crowds too

 

[DatFan]

Like many people, I subscribe to Touring Plans and use their crowd calendar for planning purposes. In June 2016, I planned a DW vacation from January 3 - 10, 2017 after seeing the crowds were expected to be ~ 4 - 6 at most parks on those dates (January 2 still being rated a "10" crowd). We rented DVC points for Poly on January 2, 3 with the intention of going to MK on January 3,4. Now, Touring Plans has those dates booked as a 10. Yet the Disney hours for MK still show 9am - 9pm or 9am - 8pm, which seem very short for a 10 crowd level.

My problem is that my husband had a failed hip surgery that causes him immense pain if he stands too long. He can walk (constant pacing) or he can sit, but cannot stand. Shorter lines (and places to sit/room to pace) was key to a pain-free vacation. I'm thinking we should scrap the whole vacation and just take the loss on the DVC ressie unless the hours will be extended or the crowd levels get revised down. I'm very confused by the jump from a 4 crowd level in MK (predicted level for January 4 as of June) and the now 10 crowd level (predicted level for January 4 now). Any advice? Anyone have a similar experience or been at the parks the first couple days of January?

Thanks!

I wouldn't worry about too much. My experience is that these crowd calendars are hit or miss except for the obvious busy times. Also doubting a 10 crowd on Wed Jan 4th. 'Most' kids are back at school for a short week by that Thurs. And the marathon crowds that late week to weekend only have a minimal effect on Park crowds. My 2 cents is maybe a 7-8 for that Wed.

 

[mrzrich]

Everyone - thank you for the advice. I will look into the scooter. Can they be taken into most lines?

Check out the DisAbilities forum here on the Disboards. They can advise you about renting a scooter and accessibility. Best advice is to rent from an off site vendor, they are cheaper than renting at the parks, and they will deliver right to your resort

 

[WeRtrippin]

I'm planning a trip that week, too. We are playing soccer the weekend before so just extended the trip. We were planning to go anyway but would have waited a week or so d/t crowds. My guess is that Tuesday and Thursday might not be so bad but will start getting more crowded as the marathon crowd runs in (<---see what I did there?)

My guess is that there will a lot of folks that just keep their kids out of school this week to be there to run and have a full WDW week but only miss two days of school. That was my train of thought anyway.

See you there!
m

 

[Govols1997]

We just returned and rented from Big Orange Scootet for my mom. They were great. She took it in every single line we did. I believe if you can't take it, they will give you a wheelchair. No way she could've done Disney without it.

 

[isabellea]

Because Christmas is a Sunday this year our schools will close on Dec 23 for two full weeks off. School starts again January 10 for us and I'm sure we're not the only ones.

 

[bigmac5]

I suggest you see what other crowd calendars are predicting. Check Easywdw and see what he thinks.

Josh isn't doing calendars...at least not right now. People have counted on him and now disney is not giving any information very far ahead He wants to give people accurate info and that is not possible at this point

 

[lbwilliams]

Because Christmas is a Sunday this year our schools will close on Dec 23 for two full weeks off. School starts again January 10 for us and I'm sure we're not the only ones.

That's a good point; that may be a big difference.

 

[HopperFan]

No school week for several hundred thousand students in ATL + popular destination = I would expect a doable but busy week.

 

[Nancyg56]

The first week in January is still busy. A lot of schools have it off. I am not sure it will be a 10, but it will be busy. I woudl check out the DISabilities forum for suggestions to mitigate the standing for your husband

 

[Accident]

Historically it's really busy just after new years and usually doesn't drop until the following weekend. with new years being on the weekend and I know some friends whose kids aren't going back to school until the 5th and it makes sense that people that came down for xmas break are staying until the 3rd or 4th to me.

 

[Nancyg56]

Historically it's really busy just after new years and usually doesn't drop until the following weekend. with new years being on the weekend and I know some friends whose kids aren't going back to school until the 5th and it makes sense that people that came down for xmas break are staying until the 3rd or 4th to me.

WHen my kids were young we took them to WDW over New Years. It was so busy until January 1st, and then BOOM! The crowds disappeared. Well, IU took all of my "experience" and planned a Sunday, January 1st arrival for our first trip back, which was with my DGD. Holy Busy!!!! What a difference 20 years can make!!! LOL!!! It stayed busy until Friday, which was manageable all day until dinner time. AND then the marathon hit. The next year we planned the third week in January.

 

[lizabu]

Everyone is out of school. If you prepare for huge crowds you will be ok. The next week will be less busy. You have Christmas holidays into New Years into marathon the first week in January.

 

[mrzrich]

Don't be discouraged. Despite the post above not EVERYONE is out of school. My kids have off the entire week BEFORE Christmas and go back on January 2

 

[Meriam]

Something to consider...https://disneyparks.disney.go.com/blog/disney-parks-disability-access-service-card-fact-sheet/