Ivan

[minniegidget]

Here I sit not know much about hurricanes so I am going to the experts. How does Ivan look for this weekend? We are flying into Orlando (hopfully) Sunday 4 30 pm. I just called SWA and they say all flights are still going Sunday. I really hope Ivan goes away. I know FL can not take much more. My sister daughter just moved from Mi to Tampa this year. I worry about her alot. Prayers and thoughts goes out to all of you in FL.

 

[Kajunswty]

Good question....like you I am flying SWA but on Monday. We are really torn as to whether to cancel or not. We are going to wait until Fri / Sat to decide.

I would hate to get out there and not be able to get home on Friday. Guess we'll just have to wait and see where Ivan decides to go

 

[rocketralph]

It's still to early to tell where Ivan is going.

 

[picantel]

I am watching the models and it looks worse and worse. Now 2 of them cut up through orlando, 1 to miami, and 2 out east of florida. Before everything was heading into the middle of the gulf. Die Ivan die.

 

[susy]

This thing is now a Category 5 hurricane, which means the damage is "Catastrophic" as opposed to "Severe"-Category 4. It could change and who knows where it will end up-hopefully not here. We did cancel our trip this weekend (again).

 

[safetymom]

http://www.tampabays10.com/weather/index.asp
http://www.wftv.com

Two great stations for weather forecasting in the Central FL. area.

 

[kseely]

we are thinking of postponing our 9 day trip as well. we are sched. to leave at 3pm tomorrow out of nj, so i have some time to cancel, and right now i'm sure we're going to wait till the last minute, but it doesn't look good. continental will let us rebook the trip, as im sure disney will too. all of the computer models are changing from day to day, this mornings newest info is way different from last nights. the best we can hope for is for this thing to keep to the right of fl.

i just can't see going down as planned, only to have this storm drastically impact fl while we are there. i can tell you that i have the WORST luck in the world, so if we cancel then Ivan will for sure turn more east and miss fl alltogether, but if we go, then ivan will hit fl...so i'm sure we'll be canceling.....only to have the storm turn to the east and miss fl......which is good b/c i can always go later!!

 

[kseely]

and, what i meant to say is, great for fl!!! our "bad luck" is good luck for millions!!!

 

[tnkrbell]

I sit here just feeling sick!!!! I dont know what to do??!!
Do I leave the state?? Do I sit and wait???? Most of my friends still are without power from Frances I feel so horrible for them!!
Im not even thinking about my trip which Im sure I will just cancel!!
Just pray that Ivan somehow just disappears!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[i like stitch]

We figured that Ivan may or may not hit but didn't want to chance it so......we decided to reschedule our trip and did so when it's not hurricane season. We would rather be at the parks than be stuck in our hotel room, even if it's disney!

Customer service at SWA was very helpful.

Now, if I can only figure out how to change my counter!

 

[Butch50]

As someone who studies hurricanes a little, maybe I can add a few points to think about...

1. First of all, it is still too early to tell anything for sure, the rest of my points assume that Ivan will stay on it's current forecast track as seen on the map linked below.
Forecast track

2. If Ivan stays on that track, it should affect WDW during the early morning hours of Tuedsay, Sept. 14th. My guess under this scenario is that the parks would close early on the 13th and probably reopen on the 15th.

3. Ivan shouldn't be as powerful as Charley or Frances when it reaches the WDW area. If the current forecast holds, Ivan would have been over land for nearly 24 hours by the time it gets as far north as WDW. That is alot of time in the life of a hurricane. The land interaction will have a weakening affect on Ivan. Even if Ivan is a category 4 storm when it hits South Florida, it would surely be no stronger than a category 2 by the time it gets to WDW - and probably weaker.

4. Ivan will probably have the forward speed of Charley. Frances was such a problem because she was so slow. Unless things change, it appears that the atmospheric conditions are going to move Ivan pretty quickly once it hits land.

Again, don't take any of this as gospel. These are just some things to think about.

A good web site for keeping track of the storm is Moreweather.com

 

[DisneyWisher]

3 different sites have 3 different locations where it will hit. All seem to have it hitting South FL.

http://www.moreweather.com/tropics/Storms/lIVAN.gif
http://www.weather.com/maps/news/atlstorm9/projectedpath_large.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0904W5+GIF/090853W5.gif

I for one don't know what to do. Well postponing my trip for 1. Spending 2 days stuck in a hotel room is not my idea of how I want to spend my vacation. But the worst part is that we have still not totally recovered from Frances. I went to the store last night to buy milk and the stores are still out. They only have pints. I did fill-up my gas tank already but that was more because of my trip than because of Ivan. I still have my hurricane supplies from last weekend since I never lost power. So at least I don't have to make a mad rush for those.

Everyone stay safe and Pray that Ivan loses some of his strength. Ivan going down to a tropical storm would be nice but Cat 2 of less would do me just fine. After this one will there be any trees in FL left.

Shirley

 

[2x_dis_dad]

It's not looking good for Florida right now. Ivan is still too far away to accurately predict though. Hopefully Florida will be spared. Most of my family lives in southwest Florida. We are watching this one closely.

 

[Rhonda922]

DH and I are talking about cancelling our trip and going somewhere else just in case this hurricane stuff keeps going into October. We will keep our new plans on the back burner and see how the weather looks in a couple weeks.

 

[SnackyStacky]

I'm scheduled to leave on Monday morning, the 13th. My flight is to head out at 6:15 am.

If jetBlue is flying, so am I!

Disney World is 2 for 2. They had their parks open the day after Charley passed, and the day after Frances passed.

Hurricanes can turn without any warning, or notice. In September of 2002, Edouard was supposed to hit at Cape Canaveral and come right into Orlando. It was all over the news - lots of warnings. It turned north and didn't bother Florida at all.

Am I worried that it'll hit and affect my vacation? You bet! But like I said - people rode out the storms safely twice, and twice Disney had their parks open the day after.

 

[kseely]

we are pushing everything back 1 week. hopeing for the best, but expecting the worst...... everyone is great in plan changing, although i am switching airlines for next week b/c of cheaper air fare, it works out somewhat....it was weird on how no questions were asked when re-scheduling, so i assume a lot of people are re routing their plans.......my air fare lady was in miami & said she was worried about ivan. she lost 3 windows w/ frances and a tree. as i was speaking to her they were placing the hurricane shutters back up on the work building (spirit air)

 

[RoLaren]

We had no choice but to make up our minds now based on the models that are out. Hubby and I were up till past 2 am discussing this.

We just cannot knowingly take our child and my senior dad into a situation that has the potential to be so dangerous. If anything happened to them because I didn't postpone, I couldn't forgive myself.

If it were just DH and I and we had no kids, likely we'd take our chances and go for it. But with a child along it's an entirely different thing. Add a senior who has recovered from a major stroke in the past 3 years and it's a no-brainer. We just can't go.

I wish the best to those going and wish luck in rescheduling to those who make a change. We did pretty well, and are planning to go the second week in November instead.

One thing in common with all the people I talked to, airline folk, Disney dining and CRO folks, were all scared. They all said that I was making a wise decision, and hoped that they would be spared.

Oh, how I hope that they're wrong and this thing loops back out into the atlantic to die.

Snacky, I hope your honeymoon turns out okay!

 

[ruttie]

"We just cannot knowingly take our child and my senior dad into a situation that has the potential to be so dangerous. If anything happened to them because I didn't postpone, I couldn't forgive myself.

If it were just DH and I and we had no kids, likely we'd take our chances and go for it. But with a child along it's an entirely different thing. Add a senior who has recovered from a major stroke in the past 3 years and it's a no-brainer. We just can't go."

my thoughts axactly.. when faced with evacuation last week and sitting in a hotel room for 4 days over holeing up with my family on the mainland in a relatively secure house and saving money I chose evac I know we spent way t much money when we could have stayed at a shelter or with friends but toi me that was out of the question when i have 2 young boys to worry about!!! I am sorry you have decided to cancel but I think that was a wise decion for you. although I am being optimistic that IVAN wil GO AWAY!!! my luck my power will get turned om monday only to be Knocked out agian!!!!!

 

[RoLaren]

ruttie I hope that you get to keep your power and that Ivan goes away!!!!

 

[DisneyWisher]

Originally posted by SnackyStacky
I'm scheduled to leave on Monday morning, the 13th. My flight is to head out at 6:15 am.

If jetBlue is flying, so am I!

Disney World is 2 for 2. They had their parks open the day after Charley passed, and the day after Frances passed.

Hurricanes can turn without any warning, or notice. In September of 2002, Edouard was supposed to hit at Cape Canaveral and come right into Orlando. It was all over the news - lots of warnings. It turned north and didn't bother Florida at all.

Am I worried that it'll hit and affect my vacation? You bet! But like I said - people rode out the storms safely twice, and twice Disney had their parks open the day after.

Even though I can push back my trip (I don't wanna) ok enough whinning. Just as I sit here Poly's intinerary planning office calls me about me wanting to order the chocolate mickey and cinderella slipper for my daughter. I wanted it sent to the room. (yes, they do that). Its like its a sign not to cancel. But I am cancelling my PSs. If we go we can always book Hoop Dee Doo again and DD didn't want to go to CRT. So no biggie.

Imagine how slow Disney will be next week.

I know Ivan is a serious issue for all concerned but making light of it sometimes helps me deal with it. Please don't flame me.


Everyone stay safe and pray Ivan loses his strength,
Shirley