It's Here! The DVC Resale Most Economical Fall 2020

[RoseGold]

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/best-economical-dvc-resort-to-purchase-fall-2020/
They are using the most recent prices, and ROFR is crazy right now. If you got in during the summer, you might be looking a lot better than this!

Interesting to see how high Aulani is now!

 

[JETSDAD]

AKV movin' on up! lol

Poly's increase in resale prices from the spring dropping them out of the lead.

 

[zavandor]

Wow, going rate for my home resort is more than double what I paid in 2012, with 8 fewer years on the contract!
Anyway, I do not agree with the basic assumption, dividing the buy in cost by the number of years remaining. And the reason is in the chart itself: OKW extended is worth just $7 more than OKW. The market values year between 2042 ans 2057 just $7, less that 50 cents per year. Value of each year of the contract is not linear. This analysis gives too much importance to the length of the contract.
To someone buying now, years 40+ years in the future are worth just a small fraction of what the next 10 or 20 years are worth. That's why resorts expiring in 2042 are still selling well.

 

[E2ME2]

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/best-economical-dvc-resort-to-purchase-fall-2020/
They are using the most recent prices, and ROFR is crazy right now. If you got in during the summer, you might be looking a lot better than this!

Interesting to see how high Aulani is now, even with that spike in 2021 dues.

Yuup - I got "COVID" prices on SSR & BCV !
They list SSR at $107 Avg. - I paid $88.89
And BCV is listed at $159 Avg. - I paid $140
I'd like to know the sample population from which they derived these averages, and over what time period.

If I insert my $88.89 for SSR, using their formula, I get $9.72 - Total Cost Per Point Per Year.

 

[Jaguar Skills]

Same boat for us - we got our SSR at $87 pp - our first contract

 

[Anuhea35]

Same here. I got some great covid deals. OKW 60p for $75pp and a 80p for $80pp. Would love to find more of those!

 

[Sandisw]

Since I paid $73 and $75 for my SSR a few years ago, I guess it really does make it the best SAP for those 500 points!

 

[FinnFogg]

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/best-economical-dvc-resort-to-purchase-fall-2020/
They are using the most recent prices, and ROFR is crazy right now. If you got in during the summer, you might be looking a lot better than this!

Interesting to see how high Aulani is now, even with that spike in 2021 dues.

What spike in 2021 Aulani dues? I though Aulani was one of the lower increases (~0.29%)?

 

[Stargazer65]

118 for Boulder Ridge? I haven't seen any listing that high.

 

[CarolMN]

Wow, going rate for my home resort is more than double what I paid in 2012, with 8 fewer years on the contract!
Anyway, I do not agree with the basic assumption, dividing the buy in cost by the number of years remaining. And the reason is in the chart itself: OKW extended is worth just $7 more than OKW. The market values year between 2042 ans 2057 just $7, less that 50 cents per year. Value of each year of the contract is not linear. This analysis gives too much importance to the length of the contract.
To someone buying now, years 40+ years in the future are worth just a small fraction of what the next 10 or 20 years are worth. That's why resorts expiring in 2042 are still selling well.

Agree 100%! The market has never valued the OKW extension anywhere even close to what DVD charged for it.

 

[RoseGold]

Anyway, I do not agree with the basic assumption, dividing the buy in cost by the number of years remaining. And the reason is in the chart itself: OKW extended is worth just $7 more than OKW. The market values year between 2042 ans 2057 just $7, less that 50 cents per year. Value of each year of the contract is not linear. This analysis gives too much importance to the length of the contract.
To someone buying now, years 40+ years in the future are worth just a small fraction of what the next 10 or 20 years are worth. That's why resorts expiring in 2042 are still selling well.

Funny, that's exactly why I like this analysis!

I consider it to be conservative for the newer resorts. I think you'd agree the math makes sense for a resort with, say, five years left, because you will be running out the clock. If you think they depreciate slower than linear, like I do, you do even better!

 

[RoseGold]

118 for Boulder Ridge? I haven't seen any listing that high.

Yea, sometimes their numbers skew high, because it includes small contracts, or ones that just don't have a lot of movement. But that 118 is just nonsense. Fidelity only has one BR even listed over 100. That would trim BR down to VGC level on this chart.

But 107 for SSR, which is constantly coming and going, has a lot of data -- that's higher than the 2019 peak price! So the trend is clear.

 

[sethschroeder]

Buy where you want to stay most of the time. Thats all I think when I look at these charts.

Not worth the headache to save essentially so little money if you look at the total cost per point part of this chart.

On 300 points its $3000/yr and you might save $300 to not get where you want to stay. The ones that are more like $600/yr difference are BWV/BCV which you really are not staying in except if its a 1BR likely.

 

[E2ME2]

Buy where you want to stay most of the time. Thats all I think when I look at these charts.

Not worth the headache to save essentially so little money if you look at the total cost per point part of this chart.

On 300 points its $3000/yr and you might save $300 to not get where you want to stay. The ones that are more like $600/yr difference are BWV/BCV which you really are not staying in except if its a 1BR likely.

It's really a case-by-case analysis.
The delta between SSR & BCV, in this chart is about $5/PP/PY
On 500 points, that's $2500/year. I'm willing to stay 2 weeks at SSR, vs 1 Week at BCV, for $2500 less.
It just so happens that those are my 2 home resorts, with just enough BCV points to get 11Mo. advantage in years when we have APs.

 

[MBTigger]

The current ROFR thread shows every single SSR contract passing higher than the $92.5 offer I made in early June (and eventually closed on in September).

 

[RoseGold]

The current ROFR thread shows every single SSR contract passing higher than the $92.5 offer I made in early June (and eventually closed on in September).

SSR ROFR at 103 in October is not where I expected this to go.