is TP crazy

[bwang123]

I'd love to see a thread comparing the predicted crowd levels to actual levels/people's actual experience in the park that day!

I can speak to that on at least one day during our Spring Break one year. TP had an 8 for Animal Kingdom and actual was 9. All of the rides were walk-ons due to bad weather the entire day. I was done after that.

 

[lentesta]

just checked touring plans crowd calendar for next week. basically all days are a 1 (sept 5-9) and sept 10 a 2 i find it hard to believe during these days that WDW will be a 1 or 2. do they know something i will be happy to see them right on the money but i thought days of 1, 2, 3 are over

Following up on this now that the week is over. Predicted and (Actual) crowd levels by park, starting last Sunday (9/2):

MK = 5(5), 4(1), 3(2), 2(1), 1(1), 1(1), 2(3). Average difference for the week between predicted and actual: +/-0.83.
EP = 7(7), 7(3), 3(3), 1(1), 1(1), 1(1), 2(3), +/- 0.71
HS = 5(6), 7(3), 1(1), 1(1), 1(1), 1(2), 1(2), +/- 1.00
AK = 5(5), 6(3), 1(1), 1(1), 1(1), 1(1), 1(2), +/- 0.57

Most of the overall difference for the week happened on Labor Day, which we overestimated by about 3.5 points. This year's wait times on Labor Day were lower than last year's, even though last year's was a few days before Hurricane Irma. There was rain from about noon to 4 pm this year, but that's not unusual for Florida summer. This year's Labor Day wait times were more like 2013-2014 than 2015-2017.

 

[SaintsManiac]

So we were there 9/1-9/8. After going Thanksgiving week and MLK weekend we were shocked at how empty the walkways were in spots, the extremely low waits for big attractions, etc.

The longest we waited was 30 minutes for Splash and that was on Tuesday when some rides were down and it was the middle of the day. We found WDW to have inflated wait times every day. If it said 30 minutes it was probably 15. If it said 20 it was probably 10. Many things were walk on.

I will say that character lines just always feel like they take forever. We didn't do many this trip, as my daughter wasn't feeling it.

We didn't need FP for many rides.

The heat was really brutal at times, though and that can sometimes make it feel more crowded.

 

[Shanti]

just checked touring plans crowd calendar for next week. basically all days are a 1 (sept 5-9) and sept 10 a 2 i find it hard to believe during these days that WDW will be a 1 or 2. do they know something i will be happy to see them right on the money but i thought days of 1, 2, 3 are over

They just make up their numbers, and when people point out their errors, they say it's all relative and/or it was due to Disney's staffing changes. Crowd calendars are about as reliable as professional psychics these days. Ignore their advice & move on.

 

[hiroMYhero]

Following up on this now that the week is over. Predicted and (Actual) crowd levels by park, starting last Sunday (9/2):

MK = 5(5), 4(1), 3(2), 2(1), 1(1), 1(1), 2(3). Average difference for the week between predicted and actual: +/-0.83.
EP = 7(7), 7(3), 3(3), 1(1), 1(1), 1(1), 2(3), +/- 0.71
HS = 5(6), 7(3), 1(1), 1(1), 1(1), 1(2), 1(2), +/- 1.00
AK = 5(5), 6(3), 1(1), 1(1), 1(1), 1(1), 1(2), +/- 0.57

Most of the overall difference for the week happened on Labor Day, which we overestimated by about 3.5 points. This year's wait times on Labor Day were lower than last year's, even though last year's was a few days before Hurricane Irma. There was rain from about noon to 4 pm this year, but that's not unusual for Florida summer. This year's Labor Day wait times were more like 2013-2014 than 2015-2017.

Thanks, Len (@lentesta), for reporting the actual stats for the week in question.

 

[Gehrig1B]

Testa and Touring Plans is very transparent and their methodology is quite scientific. They are not making up their numbers.

Are they perfect? Of course not. I liken it to meteorology. Weather forecasts are very good but obviously not 100%. Do we ignore them because they are sometimes wrong?