Is this math correct for comparing direct versus resale purchase? Any changes I should make?

[MamaBear12]

We just went on a cruise and I learned from contacting DVC that we're eligible for additional promotions ($1K off and additional per point price reduction on Riviera and Grand FL) if we buy 200 points. We are considering 150-200 and debating between direct and resale. This is the comparison I've come up with, though resale prices are a guesstimate. Anything I'm missing or should adjust? Over lifetime of contracts, the difference in point value between direct and resale is less than $1/point, so not insignificant, but not 10s of thousands. Poly, Copper Creek, SSR, and Grand FL are lowest per my resale estimates with Grand FL the clear winner for direct purchase (factoring in current dues which I know could change). Thoughts?

 

[Sandisw]

I think number one is where you want to stay If you don’t have a top choice then choosing one that you are happy to be at if you can’t trade out at 7 months.

If that is VGF then I think direct is for sure the best way for that resort.

We like RIV but also want to make sure we have access to all future resorts so we will pretty much only buy direct unless they abandon the whole model of restrictions for future resorts.

We also like the option of being eligible for membership extras whatever they are..resale only locks you out..but many do the direct for those and then resale for the rest because they are good with being locked out of RIV and potentially future resorts.

 

[MamaBear12]

I think number one is where you want to stay If you don’t have a top choice then choosing one that you are happy to be at if you can’t trade out at 7 months.

If that is VGF then I think direct is for sure the best way for that resort.

We like RIV but also want to make sure we have access to all future resorts so we will pretty much direct unless they abandon the whole model of restrictions for future resorts.

We also like the option of being eligible for membership extras whatever they are..resale only locks you out..but many do the direct for those and then resale for the rest because they are good with being locked out of RIV and potentially future resorts.

We would honestly be happy staying any Deluxe on property and will probably sleep around as much as possible. I’m currently leaning towards SSR resale or Grand FL direct.

 

[Sandisw]

We would honestly be happy staying any Deluxe on property and will probably sleep around as much as possible. I’m currently leaning towards SSR resale or Grand FL direct.

Then it sounds like home resort isn’t really a big deal for you so it does come down to other things.

I will say that it seems that more contracts for SSR are making it through resale at a lower price right now.!

Good luck!

 

[MamaBear12]

Then it sounds like home resort isn’t really a big deal for you so it does come down to other things.

I will say that it seems that more contracts for SSR are making it through resale at a lower price right now.!

Good luck!

Thanks! Any idea what a good price point goal would be for SSR resale?

 

[EricLaurie]

Page 1 of the ROFR thread does show which prices are being passed through ROFR, which prices Disney takes the contract at, etc. This thread has been immensely helpful to me in crafting offers.

It's always hard to say what to offer. There have been recent offers that have gone through at $117 and $118 per point as well as some all the way up to $135 per point. If it's a stripped contract, you might want to look at the lower end of the range and if it's loaded with points toward the higher end.

Good luck! Such an exciting time to be looking for your first contract.

 

[Slippery Yak]

Of note- make sure you take into consideration the restrictions that come with resale - especially Riviera. It’s a great way to save money, but different people have different priorities.

 

[MamaBear12]

Of note- make sure you take into consideration the restrictions that come with resale - especially Riviera. It’s a great way to save money, but different people have different priorities.

Thanks. We've ruled out Riviera because of the resale restrictions. If we buy direct, we'll do Grand FL. Resale, SSR.

 

[NVDISFamily]

I think before you do the cost/resale analysis you need to make sure you are getting the right product to meet your needs. My first chart I built to start my analysis was something like this for VGC as this was our first resort we wanted to buy -



There are other ways to do this, but this helped me and I've also built this out for Riviera and CCV in other tabs to help me with my planning and analysis. As we would travel often in Season 2 and sometimes in Season 3 for VGC we decided we wanted at least 500 or so points to be able to stay in a 2BR room for 10 or so nights a year. Or we can get multiple rooms for family every other year or something to have a good holiday party.

I'd do something similar for VGF and make sure you can use the points how you want to use them. I'd also do extensive research on how hard it is to book the room you want in the season you want.

And last, buy where you want to stay is the most important rule. What if other resorts started to be very competitive in the time of year you want to travel and the only way you can get a room is to book at 11 months?

 

[jimmymc]

If you're financing, then the lower buy-in price will have even larger benefits. But overall it's a good calculation, dues are about 2/3rds of your total cost to own, so a 30% savings on 1/3rd of the cost is about $1 per point. Grand Floridian in particular is an expensive resort on the resale market, you see better savings in other locations, but at most it will be $2 per use point.

 

[RoseGold]

I don't know where you pulled those resale numbers. There are multiple BLT resales listed in the 150s right now at multiple brokers, VGF in the 160s.

To me, exit strategy matters. If you plan to have this pried out of your dying hands, I'd buy direct. If you think you are going to sell, or won't be going when the kids grow up, I'd buy resale.

I would buy BLT resale right now. The pricing is very good. The standard view chart is a screaming deal for a monorail resort, and you have to have BLT points to book it. And it's good value as SAP and should be easy to sell when I plan to sell.

 

[havoc315]

I don't know where you pulled those resale numbers. There are multiple BLT resales listed in the 150s right now at multiple brokers, VGF in the 160s.

To me, exit strategy matters. If you plan to have this pried out of your dying hands, I'd buy direct. If you think you are going to sell, or won't be going when the kids grow up, I'd buy resale.

I would buy BLT resale right now. The pricing is very good. The standard view chart is a screaming deal for a monorail resort, and you have to have BLT points to book it. And it's good value as SAP and should be easy to sell when I plan to sell.

Yeah... except then you're stuck with BLT as your home resort...

(partially kidding.... but I don't like BLT... I feel like it's a moderate level resort in a great location -- almost the opposite of Riviera which I see as a true deluxe resort but in a more moderate location)).

 

[RoseGold]

Yeah... except then you're stuck with BLT as your home resort...

(partially kidding.... but I don't like BLT... I feel like it's a moderate level resort in a great location -- almost the opposite of Riviera which I see as a true deluxe resort but in a more moderate location)).

I'd buy it as SAP and for resale value. I would do the same for CCV, and I don't even like WL.

 

[havoc315]

I think number one is where you want to stay If you don’t have a top choice then choosing one that you are happy to be at if you can’t trade out at 7 months.

I'll mostly second this. For most of the resorts, over the long term, the pricing isn't so different that you shouldn't just pick where you want to stay.
And yes, direct at both Riv and VGF, being they are in active sales, really isn't much more than buying re-sale. For many people, the small difference in price is well worth blue card benefits, ease of purchase (no ROFR!), and use of all current and future resorts.
But in broad strokes.... there are some differences in price that may affect thinking. I wouldn't buy BCV direct or resale right now, unless you snuck a great resale deal through ROFR -- with the remaining contract duration and high price, it's hard to justify the price versus renting points and even cash rooms.

I'd really stick to looking at contracts that go to 2057 and later -- so either resale at SSR, AKV, BLT, POLY or CCV.... or direct at GFV or RIV.

As to re-sale at SSR versus direct at GFV --- If you ever look to rent out your points when you're not using them, it will be much easier to rent out those GFV points which will get a premium at 11 months.

 

[havoc315]

I'd buy it as SAP and for resale value. I would do the same for CCV, and I don't even like WL.

GFV and RIV direct are better sleep around points...

Buying any re-sale as SAP... you won't have many places where you can even sleep around after 2042. And you can't SAP at the new Disneyland tower, wouldn't be able to sleep around at RIV, might not be able to sleep at the new Poly tower..

So they work as SAP if you're only planning on keeping DVC for under 19 years.

 

[RoseGold]

BLT and CCV in particular have attractive charts. They already look retro, and that will only become more extreme. IMO, they will be like the retro charts on BC/BW look now, in a decade or two.

I always planned to sell in a decade, so that's my lens for buying resale.

 

[havoc315]

BLT and CCV in particular have attractive charts. They already look retro, and that will only become more extreme. IMO, they will be like the retro charts on BC/BW look now, in a decade or two.

I always planned to sell in a decade, so that's my lens for buying resale.

And that explains you rationale. It's a pretty different calculation depending how long you plan to hold. If you're planning on selling 2030-2035... It makes 2057-2060 contracts (SSR, BLT and AKV) very attractive --- Reasonably priced re-sale and they should still have significant re-sale value in 10-15 years.
The 2042 contracts -- They may start to show real impairment to re-sale value in 10-15 years.

But if you're planning 15-20+ years... that's where direct re-sale makes the most sense.

 

[MamaBear12]

If you're financing, then the lower buy-in price will have even larger benefits. But overall it's a good calculation, dues are about 2/3rds of your total cost to own, so a 30% savings on 1/3rd of the cost is about $1 per point. Grand Floridian in particular is an expensive resort on the resale market, you see better savings in other locations, but at most it will be $2 per use point.

Not financing. We’ll pay cash, and get 3% CC rewards if we buy direct (paying off in full).

 

[jimmymc]

Not financing. We’ll pay cash, and get 3% CC rewards if we buy direct (paying off in full).

In that case your gap is pretty small. It just depends on if you think that using the points at Riviera and all the other blue card benefits are worth the $4000ish price difference. With that small of a gap it might be. I know when I bought the gap was closer to $16,000 so resale was a no-brainer, but the resale market is a lot more than in the past.