Is my math correct?

[boomhauer]

Got my answer on the original question. OK, so, I buy into Saratoga Springs for example. Right now, we are staying 22 nights per year. We would prefer to stay at WLV, 13 nights in a 1 bedroom in July, 9 nights in a studio in January. If I bought right now, I would need 638 points. At $104 per point, my cost would be $66,352. Dues alone at the current rate, would run me $2,513 per year. So, in the first 10 years, not including interest rates, I would be spending $91,484. If the dues were to stay the same for the following 37 years, I would be spending an additional $92,981. So, not counting interest and an increase of dues, I'm spending over the 47 years, $184,465.

I'm currently spending about $5,000 per year (if we get no discounts) to stay at WL for 22 nights. At that rate, it would take 36 years for DVC to put me ahead. Now granted, hotel rates increase every year, but I also didn't add in finance charges and an increase in dues.

Am I way off here?

 

[RobDoc]

Your math is partially correct. Currently, no one is actually paying $104 per point for any DVC resort for their initial purchase - either thru DVC or by resale. Another problem here is due to the huge point requirements for weekends. If you remove weekend nights from your 22 nites you can get the same villas for the same dates for about 360 points - which greatly changes your numbers.

It appears that you were planning to have 8 weekend nights in your 22 and if that is a rigid plan, then DVC may not work well for your needs. If you can modify your stay even a little - two 12 night stays (arriving on a Sunday, checking out on a Friday with one Fri/Sat in the middle), you cna reduce the number of points and increase the number of nights. If you can find a way to eliminate the weekends altogether, you can really increase the number of nights and reduce the number of points needed.

For most resorts and dates, you can stay 5 nights (Sun - Thrusday) for the same number of points or fewer than two weekend nights.

You are also comparing a standard WDW room to a 1BR DVC villa (not a fair comparison) and even the DVC studio will be a little more value due to the ability to prepare simple meals using the microwave in the room.

Good luck with your decision.

 

[boomhauer]

I think with 13 nights, you're gonna hit 4 weekend days no matter how you cut it (I could be wrong.)

As for the 9 nights in January, that is a bit more flexible. We could do 7 nights, Sunday through Sunday and cut the price down.

I don't know - That's a lot of moolah to commit to for 47 years.

 

[boomhauer]

Figure, if I was to only do 7 nights in January, limiting weekend stays to just 2 nights, and 11 nights in July, limiting weekend stays to 2 nights, I'd be looking at a total of 494 points with a purchase price of $51,376, yearly dues of $2,035. So, for the 1st ten years (again, not including finance charges or increase in dues), I'm spending a total of $71,726. The remaining 37 years, I'm spending $75,295 on dues. Grand total = $147,021.

To spend 18 nights at the WL, I'd be spending $4,556 per year. So, we're talking 32 years to break even. Again, this isn't factoring in increasing hotel costs, but also isn't factoring in an increase of dues or discount on hotel rooms either.

To look at the low end of the spectrum, I buy the minimum of 160 points. Dues included, over 47 years, I'm spending $47,622. That amount of money could buy me about 202 nights at current rates at WL. If I were to stay low season using the points, I could get a total of 7 nights a year in a one-bedroom, IF, I never stayed on the weekend. So, it would then take me 29 years to break even, IF I always went during the low season and never stayed on a Friday or Saturday.

 

[Laurabearz]

So you can get a 1 bedroom for 22 nights at VWL for $5000 a year??

 

[Jeremy&Susan]

Like Doc said, if you aren't willing to modify your stays to limit Friday and Saturday Night Stays, then DVC might not be it for you.

Our stays usually arrive Sunday and leave on Saturday (for 6 day stays) or Friday (if on a 13 day stay).
If these 6 or 13 day vacations aren't in your plans, then DVC may not be your best bet.

Also by seeing how many posts you have and how long you have been on the board, I'm thinking that we are answering questions you already have the answers to. If you are just trying to stir up the pot, I will leave you to it. Have fun.

 

[boomhauer]

So you can get a 1 bedroom for 22 nights at VWL for $5000 a year??

Of course not - I realize it's not exactly apples to apples, but there's the rub. The size of the room, especially as my children get older, go off to college, and don't vacation with us as much, becomes less important.

And considering technically, you can have the same number of guests in a 1 bedroom as you can in a standard room at WL, it impacts it even less.

 

[boomhauer]

Also by seeing how many posts you have and how long you have been on the board, I'm thinking that we are answering questions you already have the answers to. If you are just trying to stir up the pot, I will leave you to it. Have fun.

Absolutely not. I've been going over the DVC for about 2 years now, trying to figure out if it makes sense for me. At first, it definitely didn't, as we were always perfectly content staying at the Values. Then, when my wife had twins, we need bigger accomidations, so we started thinking about it again. After having stayed at the WL for the 1st time, we fell in love with it, so naturally, we strongly considered it. But after talking to the rep last night and putting all these numbers together, it just doesn't sound as good as it's made out to.

The tag lines of "vacation when you want" and "membership pays for itself in 7 years" aren't exactly spot-on.

 

[dianeschlicht]

This post just goes to show how different the cost is for those buying in now and for those of us who bought in more than 10 years ago. We figured we broke even in less than 5 years, but we only paid $62 and $65 a point. We also did NOT finance, so another thing that made it a better deal.

You also have to remember that you will likely change your touring habits over the years. You wont always be going during the higher point times. We have been able to take good advantage of lower point stays even when working around school schedules with guests etc. With only 380 points, we have usually been able to stay 29 days plus per year with mostly 2 trips a year and occationally 3. We too like those longer stays, but we usually take advantage of the 12 day plan with only 2 weekend nights. Arriving on a Sunday and checking out 12 days later on a Friday morning gets you 12 nights and 13 days with only 2 weekend nights. The big difference between your plan and ours is that we are staying at OKW where point costs are significantly less. On the other hand, we usually stay quite a few of those nights in a 2 bedroom villa.

 

[eva]

So you can get a 1 bedroom for 22 nights at VWL for $5000 a year??

Exactly my question. I'm also interested in how the OP can even stay in a deluxe resort for only $227 a night, including tax, regularly. I might stumble upon a good rate at a deluxe for a bit more than that, but I sure couldn’t get that rate on a regular basis. Now that is just for a regular hotel room. Which doesn't even really compare to a studio, much less a 1-beroom villa.

 

[boomhauer]

This post just goes to show how different the cost is for those buying in now and for those of us who bought in more than 10 years ago. We figured we broke even in less than 5 years, but we only paid $62 and $65 a point. We also did NOT finance, so another thing that made it a better deal.

No question. I wish 10 years ago I could have afforded it. And to not finance it would be very nice.

 

[boomhauer]

Exactly my question. I'm also interested in how the OP can even stay in a deluxe resort for only $227 a night, including tax, regularly. I might stumble upon a good rate at a deluxe for a bit more than that, but I sure couldn’t get that rate on a regular basis. Now that is just for a regular hotel room. Which doesn't even really compare to a studio, much less a 1-beroom villa.

This month, I paid $241 per night to stay at the WL. Like I said, my figures weren't including an increase in hotel rates, which will change things quite a bit. But it also didn't include a change in the price of dues, which with 600 points, would also change things quite a bit.

I agree - No comparison between a standard room and a 1 bedroom. Studio and a standard room, to my knowledge, are pretty much the same size.

To be completely fair, best comparison would be with a studio. In a studio, with 160 points, I could get about 11 nights per year, again, in low season. So then it's a bit better - It would take 18 years to break even. It's still not a bad deal. You've got another 29 years left after that. I just don't like the idea of having to go only in the low season. To go in July, when we normally go, 160 point only gets me 9 nights per year.

 

[mikesmom]

I think your math goes wrong when you are comparing 22 nights at WLV in a hotel room against 13 nights in a 1 bdrm and 9 nights in a studio. If you want to make a more even comparison you need to look at all 22 nights in a studio. That knocks off at LEAST 200 points from your annual requirement - equivalent to about $20000 off the buy in and $800 off the annual dues. Gives you a break even point a lot sooner.

Obviously your plan is not to stay in studios all the time (neither was ours), but with a 1 bdrm in the mix you are talking a different vacation - which is a reason to buy DVC. You want a different vacation. The decision you really have here is whether you want Vacation A or vacation B. To make a DVC decision based solely on the numbers means you have to compare apples to apples. A DVC decision for most of us was partly numbers, but a whole lot of "what kind of vacation do I want". For our family we looked at numbers (a LOT) because DH is an accountant/economist. Just as important for us was that DH's idea of a restful and fun vacation for all of us did not include sharing a room/sleeping space/bathroom with a teenager for a week. I suspect he would have had a meltdown to do it for 13 days! With DVC it is, indeed, a different vacation.

Also, FYI, historically the hotel rates go up faster than the dues.

 

[eva]

This month, I paid $241 per night to stay at the WL. Like I said, my figures weren't including an increase in hotel rates, which will change things quite a bit. But it also didn't include a change in the price of dues, which with 600 points, would also change things quite a bit.

I agree - No comparison between a standard room and a 1 bedroom. Studio and a standard room, to my knowledge, are pretty much the same size.

Some will say the studio is pretty much a hotel room and some will say no. DH and I feel a studio is more like a mini suite than a regular hotel room. It is great having the sitting area, couch, and kitchenette. I guess it really is a matter of opinion. I must admit that we usually stay in a 1-bedroom. I think that you will find that people who buy into DVC do not do it to save money. Most of us want to stay in condo like accomodations while we are at WDW.

 

[boomhauer]

I think your math goes wrong when you are comparing 22 nights at WLV in a hotel room against 13 nights in a 1 bdrm and 9 nights in a studio. If you want to make a more even comparison you need to look at all 22 nights in a studio. That knocks off at LEAST 200 points from your annual requirement - equivalent to about $20000 off the buy in and $800 off the annual dues. Gives you a break even point a lot sooner.

Obviously your plan is not to stay in studios all the time (neither was ours), but with a 1 bdrm in the mix you are talking a different vacation - which is a reason to buy DVC. You want a different vacation. The decision you really have here is whether you want Vacation A or vacation B. To make a DVC decision based solely on the numbers means you have to compare apples to apples. A DVC decision for most of us was partly numbers, but a whole lot of "what kind of vacation do I want". For our family we looked at numbers (a LOT) because DH is an accountant/economist. Just as important for us was that DH's idea of a restful and fun vacation for all of us did not include sharing a room/sleeping space/bathroom with a teenager for a week. I suspect he would have had a meltdown to do it for 13 days! With DVC it is, indeed, a different vacation.

Also, FYI, historically the hotel rates go up faster than the dues.

Absolutely. I totally agree.

 

[SSRFred]

I still think the break even point is around 10 years. Which personally for me is at the upper limit.
Also, I read an analysis that basically stated that: at current prices, if you borrow the money for the purchase you in essence lose your break even point.
However, if you don't borrow, the numbers seem to make sense.
Here is a simple analysis(Rounding numbers, ignoring accurate present value):

22 Nights in Room @ $241 = $5300

22 nights in a Studio from Dec 9 to Jan 1 checkout: 423pts.

425pts of WLV resale $35000

425 annual dues ~$2000.

1/10 purchase price = $3500

425pts cost $5500/year for 10 years

From year 11 to the end, the cost is $2000 which is considerably less than $5300.

 

[DebbieB]

If you are going to buy a large number of points, I would break it up into smaller contracts, that way if it gets to be too much financially or your vacation habits change, you can sell off part of it.

 

[boomhauer]

I still think the break even point is around 10 years. Which personally for me is at the upper limit.
Also, I read an analysis that basically stated that: at current prices, if you borrow the money for the purchase you in essence lose your break even point.
However, if you don't borrow, the numbers seem to make sense.
Here is a simple analysis(Rounding numbers, ignoring accurate present value):

22 Nights in Room @ $241 = $5300

22 nights in a Studio from Dec 9 to Jan 1 checkout: 423pts.

425pts of WLV resale $35000

425 annual dues ~$2000.

1/10 purchase price = $3500

425pts cost $5500/year for 10 years

From year 11 to the end, the cost is $2000 which is considerably less than $5300.

Buying from a reseller would be the way to go. That would save almost $10,000. Of course, Disney has the right of 1st refusal.

I think the person who said it's not a decision based on saving money is dead on. There are too many variables that can be taken into consideration that make it extremely difficult to say that you would be saving money.

 

[rinkwide]

Of course not - I realize it's not exactly apples to apples, but there's the rub. The size of the room, especially as my children get older, go off to college, and don't vacation with us as much, becomes less important.

And considering technically, you can have the same number of guests in a 1 bedroom as you can in a standard room at WL, it impacts it even less.

Ever stayed in a DVC one bedroom?

 

[CarolAnnC]

Not sure if the OP is taking into account that CRO will be (or already is) charging more $$ for the weekend nights for regular hotel rooms, too.

Also, inflation cannot always be predicted. I know when we traveled many years ago and stayed at Dixie Landings (now POFQ) we were paying around $70 per night for our rooms. Not sure of the going rate there right now, but I bet it has more than doubled in price.

But, DVC is not for everyone. My feeling is, if someone needs to be convinced into buying, then it probably is not for them. You have to do what makes you happy in life.