Is DVC Getting Too Big ???

[bcvillastwo]

Given the subtle shift from DVC getting too big to the crowds in the parks I'm wondering if supply and demand could have an effect where the crowds are concerned.

I say this because if things in the parks get to the point where people "feel" like all they are doing is standing in line, my guess is that a fair number of these people will start voting with their feet. If things get so crowded (demand) that people can no longer enjoy the parks (supply as in No. of Parks and hours open) then there has to be a tipping point. It sounds like some are already approaching their personnal tipping point. When the tipping point is reached I suspect that attendance will begin to decrease and over time things will begin to level out some.

Yep I am an optomist but also a realist. I've found that approaching things from the supply and demand perspective is the way to go for me and it helps explain a good many of life's frustrations.

The DVC too large question ultimately comes down to supply and deman.

 

[DisFlan]

None of it. The figures cited were comparison of the fiscal 3rd quarter 2004 vs 2005. WDW's 3Q runs April to June.

Ah. Thank you. The current year's figures should be interesting.


DisFlan

 

[tjkraz]

Given the subtle shift from DVC getting too big to the crowds in the parks I'm wondering if supply and demand could have an effect where the crowds are concerned.

I say this because if things in the parks get to the point where people "feel" like all they are doing is standing in line, my guess is that a fair number of these people will start voting with their feet.

That may be true, but it has little relationship to the economic principle of Supply and Demand. Supply curves and Demand curves are used to determine an equilibrium price point.

A good WDW illustration of this is the hotel cash pricing that rinkwide alluded to above. In the 3Q 2004, average occupancy was at 83%. In the 3Q 2005 it rose to 88%. WDW was able to reduce it's room discounting programs, see higher occupancy levels, and significantly increase revenue.

Fixed supply + higher demand = higher price

I don't see how Supply and Demand can be applied to theme park admissions. The parks have a virtually unlimited supply, given that over 4 theme parks there are less than a dozen days per year when even one park will close due to total occupancy being reached.

You're talking more about guest satsifaction relative to the quality of the product delivered. That satisfaction is determined by an number of individual criteria. Crowd size, park hours, ride wait times, ride quality, price, and many other factors would all contribute to the level of individual satisfaction. Total satisfaction determines how consumers will spend their dollars.

WDW could justify a price increase to reduce the number of guests in the parks, raising the satisfaction level of those expecting smaller crowds. Conversely it would decrease the satisfaction of those seeking reasonable prices. So it's all a question of which group WDW is most concerned with appeasing. But it's not really a supply/demand-driven move.

 

[RobDoc]

This has started to drift far from a DVC discussion.

Our Disney News and Rumors board is a much better place to discuss the detailed intricasies of Disney economics.

Thanks

 

[rinkwide]

...I'd rather pay more if it'll lessen the chances of seeing someone change a diaper in a fountain...

I can beat that: saw one being changed on a table at the McDonalds over by the All-Stars.

...I wonder why you had to insult those of us who bought and like SSR.

It's not an insult, it's an opinion loosely based in fact and one many members happen to share.

 

[doubletrouble_vb]

Being one of the few and the proud VWL owners I have to say I agree with lobstershanty that something needs to be done help the small fry. Maybe assigning a little less "wait" in the waitinglist to home resort owners rather than adjusting booking window. A possible solution might be to reduce the potential wait time by around 10%. If there are 10 people on the list for a given day/resort you get to go to either directly behind the last home resort owner on the list or to position 9 whichever is longer. Obviously I'd prefer a 50% reduction.

For VWL & BCV owners they get a better chance of going home...for OKW, SSR and BWV they also get a better shot at a grand villa...BWV'ers also get a better shot at a standard room.

I don't expect a positive response to this notion...after all there are many more people at big resorts so by definition one would expect there would be many more on this board.

PS. The VWL problem is one reason why I think CR has got big potential as a DVC resort. Magic Kingdom is heavily underserved by DVC. CRV would take some of the burden off of VWL as the MK destination for DVC'ers.

 

[JimFitz]

PS. The VWL problem is one reason why I think CR has got big potential as a DVC resort. Magic Kingdom is heavily underserved by DVC. CRV would take some of the burden off of VWL as the MK destination for DVC'ers.

I like your rationale!! That's why I think they should do CRV, PV, and GFV!!!

I always hear the CRV rumor, and I heard that the Poly is sinking so that's a no go. Has anyone heard anything about the Grand Floridian? Do they have any room there to build DVC? I personally like the place even if it is a little snooty.

 

[lllovell]

Being one of the few and the proud VWL owners I have to say I agree with lobstershanty that something needs to be done help the small fry. Maybe assigning a little less "wait" in the waitinglist to home resort owners rather than adjusting booking window. A possible solution might be to reduce the potential wait time by around 10%. If there are 10 people on the list for a given day/resort you get to go to either directly behind the last home resort owner on the list or to position 9 whichever is longer. Obviously I'd prefer a 50% reduction.

For VWL & BCV owners they get a better chance of going home...for OKW, SSR and BWV they also get a better shot at a grand villa...BWV'ers also get a better shot at a standard room.

I don't expect a positive response to this notion...after all there are many more people at big resorts so by definition one would expect there would be many more on this board.

PS. The VWL problem is one reason why I think CR has got big potential as a DVC resort. Magic Kingdom is heavily underserved by DVC. CRV would take some of the burden off of VWL as the MK destination for DVC'ers.

You have the advantage until the 7 month window opens. I know not everyone can book before then, but that is the nature of the beast you bought into. They can change the rules (by shifting the home advantage window), but ultimately, I think it is pretty fairly set up. What you are suggesting gives added benefits to a very small percentage of DVC members....so yes - you are correct - I don't think many here will agree with your notion.

 

[Stitch 03]

I like your rationale!! That's why I think they should do CRV, PV, and GFV!!!

I always hear the CRV rumor, and I heard that the Poly is sinking so that's a no go. Has anyone heard anything about the Grand Floridian? Do they have any room there to build DVC? I personally like the place even if it is a little snooty.

No room at the GF (look at the satellite image). The only way they could possibly make it work is one of the following:

1) convert current rooms
2) convert the convention facility
3) build on the parking lot
4) remove the wedding pavillion and spa and build there
5) build the first floating DVC. Would be the best thrill ride in WDW during a hurricane.

Neither of these options I see happening. Which is too bad really. I would love nothing better then to see DVC at the GF.

Ahhh.. the GFV. That has a nice ring to it.

 

[thelobstershanty]

I own at both large and small resorts, so I can see both sides of this arguement. However, I think you're really stretching here to try and justify your position regarding home resort booking windows. It's laughable to think that people who own at OKW and SSR should have less of an opportunity to book elsewhere just because there's more availability at those resorts. I definitely agree with tjkraz on this one- you're basically promoting exclusivity. Sure, there are lots of folks who purchase points at OKW because they're less expensive or at SSR just to get in the system, maybe per the DVC sales pitch. But there are also lots of folks who buy through Disney and happen to get whatever is actively selling at the time. If you discovered DVC, either through research or just dumb luck, while they were selling VWL and BCV, good for you. It doesn't entitle you to protectionism.

There are going to be a lot of SSR owners when the resort is completed. Disney isn't going to upset the apple cart just to appease a smaller group of owners who feel threatened because of the number of players. Whining about paying slightly higher dues won't cut it. The smaller group of owners should just get smarter about booking within the appropriate window. And if they can't, as was mentioned before, maybe they shouldn't worry about having a points-based timeshare where they can't control their "week" in the first place.

It will only get worse if Eagle Pines comes to fruition after SSR is finished selling.

I guess, I did not get my opinion across correctly. I agree that it would be "laughable" to say OKW & SSR owners should have a smaller booking window at non home DVC resorts, then DVC owners at VWL BCV, etc., would have. However, I never said that or meant to say that.
The point I was making is that the home booking advantage window should be made longer for ALL DVC resorts, including OKW & SSR. I can not see how this would effect owners at the largest DVC resorts at all, other than giving ALL DVC members a smaller window to book at a non home resort. As I have attempted to say many times; with a 4 month home exclusive home booking window at a resort with double or even triiple the amount of villas---- is very unbalanced compared to a resort less than half the size. The competition for villlas just among home members in that 4 months is much more competitive than at a DVC resort with 2x or 3x the number of villas. I can not see where this a confusing issue. The home resort booking window was set in place LONG before there so many DVC villas and member were added.
Just maybe,...........it might be time to revisit this DVC policy. Maybe this is why DVC never commited to a set policy regarding the booking windows? I could be completely off base, but I really doubt, if DVC makes changes in the home resort booking wiindow, it would be to decrease the home booking window. I would lean to the other end of the spectrum. But no one really knows. Do we?
Again no intention was meant in regards to "whining" about the different dues--was just making an observation about how ironic the whole siituation is.
BTW, we also have home resort contracts at the large DVC resorts and also at the small hotel DVC resorts. We have experienced this issue, from both sides.
Don't assume things, about strangers, that you know nothing about.

 

[DisFlan]

I like your rationale!! That's why I think they should do CRV, PV, and GFV!!!

Now there's an idea. A truly "Monorail DVC"! Split it between CR, the Poly and GF. A little here, a little there... No big, humongous build required. Call it MKV. Now THAT would be cool.

Yeah, I know...dream on. We'd probably end up with TTCV.


DisFlan

 

[Dean]

thelobstershanty, I would have no problem moving the home resort window up or down. However, it would affect all owners that wanted to try other DVC resorts. It might be it'd have less of an effect on SSR and OKW owners but to say it'd have no effect would be inaccurate. The main issue would be one of planning ahead.

 

[maxsdaddy]

We booked our first DVC trip to VWL recently. We were able to book a 1br for first week of October in mid-July, only 2 1/2 months before the trip. Is that just our good fortune, not popular time of year for DVC people, or not a desireable room?

Most of what I read says that you should buy points at the resort you want to stay at most of the time. If I made a mistake and bought into the wrong property, what is the best way to get a "more desirable" home resort? Is there an option through Disney to make something similar to an exchange paying the difference in cost of points or do you need to sell your existing points and buy new or other resale points?

 

[lllovell]

We booked our first DVC trip to VWL recently. We were able to book a 1br for first week of October in mid-July, only 2 1/2 months before the trip. Is that just our good fortune, not popular time of year for DVC people, or not a desireable room?

Most of what I read says that you should buy points at the resort you want to stay at most of the time. If I made a mistake and bought into the wrong property, what is the best way to get a "more desirable" home resort? Is there an option through Disney to make something similar to an exchange paying the difference in cost of points or do you need to sell your existing points and buy new or other resale points?

You have to sell and rebuy if you are interested in having the 11 month booking advantage at a different resort from your home resort. It would not only cost you the price difference per point, but would also cost you closing costs, etc. There are people that have done this, but so far MOST are able to get into other resorts when they want to, so they are ok with keeping a different home resort.

Its a personal preference obviously. If you are going to be miserable and wish you where elsewhere on every DVC trip if you can't get into a different resort everytime (say BCV during Food and Wine Fest.) then I would sell and rebuy there. For me, we are flexible to try other resorts, like the feel of our home resort (SSR) and OKW (both of which have the kind of layout that my family is most comfortable with) and are still tight enough with points to hold onto them closely, so when I look at other resorts, I find myself thinking that I could go for an extra 5 nights in a studio if I go to OKW or an extra 3-4 nights at SSR and for now, that also guides my decisions. If we NEVER get to do the other resorts, no biggie to me. If we find ourselves banking for a year where I don't feel the need to stretch our points so far, that is probably when I will try somewhere else. Again, if I don't get it, no biggie.

I don't disagree with people that love the smaller resorts and are concerned, I just find the current system to be pretty fair to all. I hope they find ways to book inside the 11 month window to assure their reservations are ALWAYS where they want, etc. I also don't feel like I am stealing a spot if I call after the 7 month window and get a ressie at a resort other than my home. If you are a last minute traveler, you have to be flexible. I can't imagine not being able to plan at least right before the 7 month mark (and poll after poll here have shown that MOST of us are compulsive planners - thinking at least a year ahead).

IMO, the only way DVC will change the home resort booking policy is if it would gain them more full resorts. Seems like the resorts stay full a good bit (apparently now is a slow time, with school starting, etc - but from what I see, the DVC run pretty full) so I just don't see any changes being necessary.

Laura

 

[thelobstershanty]

Dean,
I can not see how a longer booking window could have any negative effect for SSR & OKW owners booking at their own home resort. If anything, it would be a positive thing for getting the hard to get GVs and the first week of Dec., etc. Where a longer home resort booking window would effect all members is there would be a few months less time to book at non home resorts.
I know the number of DVC members on this board is a long way from being a large % of actual DVC members, but from posts here, it appears that the vast majority of OKW (especially) and SSR owners stay/plan to stay, the majority of trips, at their home resort. I read posts, all the time, where members say they would be prefectly happy, if they could never stay anywhere else, but their home resort.
No disrespect meant here, so no flames please. But, I can understand your not caring one way or the other, if the booking policy changes in either direction. However, I believe, you posted that you are planning on selling your DVC membership, within the next year or so. This might be different, if you had no plans of selling, in the near future and if your home resort was at one the smallest WDW DVC resorts vs one of the largest.

 

[Dean]

Dean,
I can not see how a longer booking window could have any negative effect for SSR & OKW owners booking at their own home resort. If anything, it would be a positive thing for getting the hard to get GVs and the first week of Dec., etc. Where a longer home resort booking window would effect all members is there would be a few months less time to book at non home resorts.
I know the number of DVC members on this board is a long way from being a large % of actual DVC members, but from posts here, it appears that the vast majority of OKW (especially) and SSR owners stay/plan to stay, the majority of trips, at their home resort. I read posts, all the time, where members say they would be prefectly happy, if they could never stay anywhere else, but their home resort.
No disrespect meant here, so no flames please. But, I can understand your not caring one way or the other, if the booking policy changes in either direction. However, I believe, you posted that you are planning on selling your DVC membership, within the next year or so. This might be different, if you had no plans of selling, in the near future and if your home resort was at one the smallest WDW DVC resorts vs one of the largest.

Sorry, out of town since 8/24. I agree that having a longer home resort booking window and a shorter non home resort window would be a positive thing for members who wanted their home resort and couldn't book at least 7 months out. I doubt it'd help with GV or similar situations in most cases (such as standard or BW view at BWV). What it would do is make it harder to plan non home resort trips. Still not a big deal in most cases if one simply books a home resort option then changes over when the non home resort option opens. It would simply slide the scale a little and should only affect a small percent of members either way.

Any change favoring home resort owners would favor the harder to book resorts and be a negative to those who bought mostly to trade, not a bad thing IMO. But regardless, as long as there is a home resort window, even the min 1 month, I think it's pretty small potatoes overall.

As for selling, I simply said I plan on selling a portion or my membership, maybe a large portion. Reason being is that I can trade in certain times of the year, can now travel those time and thus have my cake and eat it too, at cheaper prices. And the larger DVC is, the easier that will be.

 

[Pluto 2]

in my opinion dvc can never be too big. the bigger thet get the more rooms they will have to get. so here come vcr, aklv, dlv and what ever else. i like to try the differnt resorts i own at bwv only stayed there once in 2001, 2002 stayed at vwl. 2003 i stayed at bcv. 2004 did not go lack of points and 2005 ssr. 2006 i will go to okw. i make my reservations at the 11 month window than at 7 months i changed it to the resort i want to go to. i never had a problem i never had to go on a waiting list. i always went for 12 nights and i have never called day to day.

 

[mark&sue]

Pluto that is really good news. As I will be going to SSR for two weeks in October next year and wanted a two bed and a studio I was wondering if I needed to call day by day at the 11 months or whether I should just wait till the check out date?

Many thanks

We bought at SSR because we love the location but I am sure we will want to try other resorts after 49 years!!! We have already used points for Disneyland Paris and an exchange and we have only been members a year.


Susan

 

[Dean]

in my opinion dvc can never be too big. the bigger thet get the more rooms they will have to get. so here come vcr, aklv, dlv and what ever else. i like to try the differnt resorts i own at bwv only stayed there once in 2001, 2002 stayed at vwl. 2003 i stayed at bcv. 2004 did not go lack of points and 2005 ssr. 2006 i will go to okw. i make my reservations at the 11 month window than at 7 months i changed it to the resort i want to go to. i never had a problem i never had to go on a waiting list. i always went for 12 nights and i have never called day to day.

It all depends on what you have and what you want. The bigger DVC is the more chances for some to trade in through II. The more destination units available (like BWV, VWL, BCV), the easier it will be to get one if you own places like SSR or OKW. The more non destination units (and points) available, the harder it will be to trade in to the destination resorts. As for the 7 month window and not calling day by day, it depends on what you want and how flexible you are. IF you want BWV standard or BW view or a GV or even a dedicated 2 Q 2 BR at BCV; you will may be out of luck at 7 months or at best, have to do the wait list thing. Same was true for HH until the past 2 years and likely will be again in the near future.

And if you book at 11 months, then you are guaranteed a room and the rest is simply personal preferences. That way you can look at multiple options/resorts or ride the wait list the entire way if need be.