Is anyone annoyed about Disney's vacation club building?

[YoHo]

Funny how those same numbers are used in the media and by people on these boards to judge attendance everyday.

Only people who haven't been on these boards very long and haven't had these discussions about the Amusment industry very long use those numbers.

It's well known that Disney does not release their numbers to the public. If they release anything, it's something trumped up to make things look more robust then they are.

As AV said, the Disney numbers are distorted because of the hopper pass. They simply don't count. However, there are plenty of rumblings out of Burbank about what's going on. And it would be pretty darn simple to search the archives of this very board and see what we all were saying in 1999-2000 and then in 2002.

And of course, the Media has never used bogus or misleading information in a story.



As for the cruise line, last I checked, every major cruise line offers numerous on board activities, dance clubs, bars, shows.... Yes, there's nothing to do on the boat.

 

[YoHo]

Oh, and I lied, I can get Monarch of the Seas right now for as low as $199 a Person

4 night cruise.

 

[joshua121301]

That was a very nice ship back in the early 90's. You will pay port taxes over $199 on most cruises today. The Monarch is out on 3 and 4 day turnarounds now I believe, and what cabin is sold at $199.00. We just returned from a 7 day Eastern Caribbean and the total without airfare was right around $20K.

 

[tjkraz]

Sorry, you can't simply add the guesses for each park. What you're measuring is park-days: one visitor going to one park for one day. Most guests go to multiple parks during their stay. You need to find the stats on the number of visitors to the property - a number Disney isn't likely to give out.

But park hopping isn't exactly a new feature. Why wouldn't a 2002 to 2005 comparison be valid given that both years' statistics are flawed in the same manner?

If anything, the 2005 figures may be even more conservative since '05 saw the introduction of the Magic Your Way tickets with Park Hopping being an option. Paying extra for that feature probably caused at least some percentage of Disney guests to spend their entire day at a single park whereas in the past they would have hopped (and been double-counted.) Prior to '05 just about every ticket sold permitted hopping.

That said, I think using 2002 numbers as basis for comparison is a mistake. The 9/11 attacks occurred in 2001, meaning that 2000 would be the last full year of untainted numbers. 2001 would have had almost 4 months of tainted attendance figures, while 2002 was probably the low point with the full year mired in a slump.

 

[YoHo]

That was a very nice ship back in the early 90's. You will pay port taxes over $199 on most cruises today. The Monarch is out on 3 and 4 day turnarounds now I believe, and what cabin is sold at $199.00. We just returned from a 7 day Eastern Caribbean and the total without airfare was right around $20K.

Well, it's interior, $259 for exterior, I assume meaning porthole.

This is from a last minute booking site.

 

[Dsnyfam]

That was a very nice ship back in the early 90's. You will pay port taxes over $199 on most cruises today. The Monarch is out on 3 and 4 day turnarounds now I believe, and what cabin is sold at $199.00. We just returned from a 7 day Eastern Caribbean and the total without airfare was right around $20K.

20K!? Is that for a Disney Cruise? How many people? As for the other quote by Yoho, is that price per person? What Catagory onboard? That is an amazing price for a 4-day cruise on any ship. Where and how do you go about finding such a low price (can you provide us a link to this last-minute booking site?).

I think everyone is in agreement that the tragic events of 911 definitely had "some" negative effects on the travel industry worldwide including WDW and the number of guests traveling, etc. Many people literally cancelled plans post 911, and some never made new ones. This has to show in the numbers and revenue somewhere. But, some of the experts on here know much more than I do about the workings of this stuff. Disney is apparently reluctant to ever reveal genuine "numbers" when it comes to park or hotel attendance. I had no idea they actually count people, as opposed to not factoring in AP's, etc. A lot of the numbers would then reflect the same people entering again and again, instead of new guests visiting the parks.

 

[Another Voice]

All we are caring about is the % increase from one year to the next and making sure we compare the same number.

True – and Disney is still trailing Hawai’i in that case. Factor in the overall demographic shift in the last five years (people staying on property more than they did before thanks to Annual Passes, DVC and promotions) and WDW’s true growth rate is even less.

The other thing that’s troubling is that WDW used to be a leading indicator of the overall travel market. It’s a lot easier for people to put off that second honeymoon to Hawai’i – but how long can those same people put off taking their daring children to go see Mickey Mouse. If I remember right, I think there are even quotes from Michael Eisner that said basically the same thing.

Maybe the best indicator would be total money spent in 2002 at a destination and total money spent in 2005.

That show how much people are willing to pay and can have lots of different factors – and in Disney’s case that’s a significant cause of the problem. Not only that, how are all those DVC dollars accounted for. You have a lot of people plopping down morage busting amounts all at once - that’s certainly going to mess up any numbers Disney’s going to report.

In short – attendance is always going to be a mystery. Too much is a stake for Disney to let the real numbers out.

All we can go by is Disney’s actions. While Vegas is raising hotel rates by 15%, Disney is offering free dining in addition to room discounts.

That says a lot.

But park hopping isn't exactly a new feature.

It isn’t park hopping that causes the problem.

Ethel flies to Hawai’i and spends five nights in a nice hotel on Maui. She eats poi and learns to surf. But, as it’s counted in the travel stats, it’s considered one visit (essential the number of people getting off the airplane).

Hilda flies to WDW for a five day stay, she goes to the Magic Kingdom on the first day, Epcot on day 2 and 3, the Disney/MGM Studios on Day 4 and the Animal Kingdom on Day 5. Disney counts her as she enters the park in the morning; they’re counting park attendance, not visits to WDW. So if you add up the park attendance – Hilda’s stay is counted as 5.

That said, I think using 2002 numbers as basis for comparison is a mistake.

Walt Disney World’s attendance peaked in 2000. Even by January 2001 Disney knew that reservation rates were falling dramatically. If you go back you’ll see that most of the serious cuts – park hours, open facilities, amenities and the number of chicken fingers you got – were all being slashed well before 9/11. The travel down-turn after the attack greatly accelerated an existing trend.

 

[joshua121301]

20K!? Is that for a Disney Cruise? How many people?

Yes it was for the 9/2 Eastern with 4 adults and 3 children, (1 of them was an infant so you pay taxes and port fees only)

 

[YoHo]

http://www.vacationstogo.com/ticker.cfm?u=n&sp=y

 

[raidermatt]

Saving money in Hawaii, ha ha.

Before dismissing, think about the numbers you are quoting. That's the average. Yes, you can spend huge amounts of money in Hawaii, and many do. But you don't have to, and many don't. That's all I said.

Now raidermatt says not many people view a cruise as a viable vacation destination.

I was speaking in reference to WDW's demographic. I even said "viable family vacation destination".

The low attendance was the first year after 9/11, which was 2002.

I didn't say they had recovered as much from their low as Hawaii (which even by your numbers, they have not). I said Hawaii was setting records, WDW was not.

My statement stands. WDW's record attendance year was 2000. As of the last numbers provided by AB, WDW had not yet reached that level, and I have still not heard any record-setting claims. Other destinations, including Hawaii, have surpassed their records.

 

[ralphd]

Think Disney did better than the rest of the pack for the year 2005.
Universal is the one hurting...............

Magic Kingdom at Walt Disney World in Orlando, 16.1 million, +6.5 percent
Disneyland in Anaheim, Calif. 14.5 million, +8.5 percent
Epcot at Walt Disney World in Orlando, 9.9 million, +5.5 percent
Disney-MGM Studios at Walt Disney World in Orlando, 8.6 million, +5 percent
Disney's Animal Kingdom at Walt Disney World in Orlando, 8.2 million, +5 percent
Universal Studios Florida at Universal Orlando, 6.1 million, -8.5 percent
Disney's California Adventure in Anaheim, Calif., 5.8 million, +3.6 percent
Universal's Islands of Adventure at Universal Orlando, 5.76 million, -8.5 percent
SeaWorld Orlando, 5.6 million, +0.2 percent
Universal Studios Hollywood, 4.7 million, -6 percent
Adventuredome at Circus Circus in Las Vegas, 4.5 million, +2.3 percent
Busch Gardens Tampa Bay, 4.3 million, +5.1 percent
SeaWorld San Diego, 4.1 million, +2.5 percent
Paramount Canada's Wonderland in Maple, Ontario, 3.6 million, +7 percent
Knott's Berry Farm in Buena Park, Calif., 3.47 million, -3 percent
Paramount's Kings Island in Kings Island, Ohio, 3.3 million, -5.1 percent
Morey's Piers in Wildwood, N.J., 3.1 million, +1 percent
Cedar Point in Sandusky, Ohio, 3.1 million, -2 percent
Santa Cruz Beach Boardwalk in Santa Cruz, Calif., 3 million, flat
Six Flags Great Adventure in Jackson, N.J., 2.9 million, +6 percent
Six Flags Great America in Gurnee, Ill., 2.8 million, +24 percent
Six Flags Magic Mountain in Valencia, Calif., 2.8 million, +5 percent
Hersheypark in Hershey, Pa., 2.7 million, flat
Busch Gardens Williamsburg, 2.6 million, +8.3 percent
Dollywood in Pigeon Forge, Tenn., 2.3 million, +7.3 percent