Increased value at BWV or BCV?

[SL6827]

Then again, if we go into a recession, all bets are off!

I imagine that another recession will hit at some point. When, not sure, but the time will come.

 

[Disneybuckeye]

We own enough points at BWV for a two bedroom Boardwalk view every year during fall frenzy with a few extra points. As my kids say, we don’t want to syptay anywhere else. I am also planning on rebuying those points in 24 years at a cost of about $200k. Walking to two parks is priceless to us.

 

[ELMC]

I think that the opening of SW:GE will lead to an increase in hotel room prices for the Epcot resort hotels. It's no coincidence that the Swan and Dolphin are building an entirely new tower in the area. Demand for Epcot resort area rooms is going to skyrocket and prices will increase accordingly. Given that hotel room prices (and not the prices of other DVC resorts) are the benchmark that many use to determine whether or not a DVC purchase is cost effective, you can imagine that DVC prices for BCV and BWV will continue to remain high. Unless a recession hits.

 

[DougEMG]

I run numbers comparing renting out my points against selling my contracts. In quiet a few cases renting works out to be a better option, even with the contract going to zero. Definitely more risk with owning given all the recent changes and direction DVC is taking.

Will DVC give extensions to BWV and BCV, not at a price most current owners would take.

What will be more interesting is what they do with SSR. A massive resort that is not overly popular. It will take them forever to sell that place out the 2nd time around.

 

[RamblinWreck]

A few brokers told me there is already a bit of a bump in interest in BWV and BCV because of SW:GE. I agree with @skier_pete though that this may be a temporary bump. If I was going to sell, I would think the fall/summer would be a good time to sell one of those properties. Then again, if we go into a recession, all bets are off!

Is there a DVC resale prices over time chart that anyone has created? How big of an effect did the tech bubble bursting and especially the 2008 financial crisis have on resale prices?

I'm curious as to how well Disney's ROFR process keeps prices elevated at times like those.

 

[TexasChick123]

Is there a DVC resale prices over time chart that anyone has created? How big of an effect did the tech bubble bursting and especially the 2008 financial crisis have on resale prices?

I'm curious as to how well Disney's ROFR process keeps prices elevated at times like those.

Dvcresalemarket.com tracks prices over the year. You can look at their numbers. I don’t think it is there back to 2008 though.

Did you ever hear back in your VGF contract?

 

[ljmiii]

I run numbers comparing renting out my points against selling my contracts. In quiet a few cases renting works out to be a better option, even with the contract going to zero. Definitely more risk with owning given all the recent changes and direction DVC is taking.

Will DVC give extensions to BWV and BCV, not at a price most current owners would take.

What will be more interesting is what they do with SSR. A massive resort that is not overly popular. It will take them forever to sell that place out the 2nd time around.

Agreed...except for the risk assessment. If you 'know' you will be going to WDW and wanting to stay at the Beach Club for the next 20+ years then owning is safer than selling and hoping that rental prices won't increase dramatically. And if you are tied to particular dates then owning is much safer - having to pay Disney's cash rates because a third party was unable to secure that New Years reservation you wanted is best avoided. If you're uncertain about your WDW future then the risks are indeed many and varied. Sales prices, rental prices, the potential for an extension (and at what price and/or discount), overall demand, economic recessions and expansions, terrorism and war, etc., etc. etc.

But to answer OP's question I expect prices to increase for the next 2-5 years.

 

[ziravan]

Is there a DVC resale prices over time chart that anyone has created? How big of an effect did the tech bubble bursting and especially the 2008 financial crisis have on resale prices?

I'm curious as to how well Disney's ROFR process keeps prices elevated at times like those.

There are ROFR threads here that go back years.

For BCV, as an example, at the end of the price depression, in 2014, I paid $84/point for an unstripped, unloaded (current years points avail, more or less) 250 point BCV contract. It was offered for sale at $86/point and I offered $84 which was accepted same day without counter.

We debated putting an offer in for 3 days before we did so - it’s not like they were moving like hot cakes; like today. (ETA I went through old emails, we put in our offer on June 10 at the Timeshare Store; their contracts contain their listing date in their ID number; based on that it was listed May 06 - so it had sat on the market for a month when we made our offer.)

Sent to ROFR on 6/11 and cleared ROFR on 7/09. In those days, DVC typically took their full 30 days.

Basically, from the time we bought our contract in 2014 until today, prices have skyrocketed.

At the height of the price depression, contracts could be had in the low 70’s. But these were contracts bought new for ~$90 so we’re talking about a 25% drop in price.

During that time, WDW was going through it’s own recession; they hardly ROFR’d anything.

 

[CarolMN]

Is there a DVC resale prices over time chart that anyone has created? How big of an effect did the tech bubble bursting and especially the 2008 financial crisis have on resale prices?

I'm curious as to how well Disney's ROFR process keeps prices elevated at times like those.

The DIS DVC Resource Center has a history of the list prices.

https://www.disboards.com/threads/t...-updated-november-2018.3655476/#post-58628430

 

[RamblinWreck]

Dvcresalemarket.com tracks prices over the year. You can look at their numbers. I don’t think it is there back to 2008 though.

Did you ever hear back in your VGF contract?

Still waiting!

I think it's day 26 now.

 

[AdamsMum]

I wanted to add another comment.

If you think about it, the Poly goes until 2066 while BCV goes until 2042.

BCV will run you about $135 a point, while Poly might run you $150 a point.

In 23 years (2042) the BCV contract will expire and be worth flat out ZERO.

The Poly will STILL have 24 years left - and by today's prices should have value in excess of $135 a point - and more likely will be much higher.

So buying a Poly contract versus a BCV contract could literally save to $135+ per point over the next 23 years.

The big question mark in all this of course is "what will Disney do for members that own at resorts like BCV? Are they really going to sell these all as new resorts in 2042? I still think you are going to see another attempt like they had at OKW, only closer to the expiration date - maybe with 10 years to go, they will offer 20 year extensions for something like $75-100 a point. We shall see. I can't imagine they want to have six entire resorts up for sale in 2042.

Yes but if you want to stay at BCV during the Food and Wine Festival, especially in a studio, BCV wins out overall. And if you're like me and you're 60 who cares about 2066?

 

[igrsod]

Possibly, though the addition of Riviera may cancel that out.

My concern with BWV and BCV is that the end dates of those contracts hasn't hurt their resale values yet. 24 years still seems like a really long time I guess. I would bet that there's going to be some magic number (maybe when they get below 20 years? 15 years?) where the end date is going to suddenly shift from a "non-issue" for buyers to a "BIG ISSUE" and prices will plummet.

I keep waiting for that time. I would love to scoop up a good deal.

 

[igrsod]

This. We love BCV but the end date makes it a complete non starter for us.

This is also why we bought AKL last year instead of BCV. When you factor in the end date, BCV doesn't stack up to AKL in terms of price per actual point.

 

[igrsod]

BCV is 100% our favourite resort but with the high cost and limited years left we can’t justify it. Also what I love most about BCV is the quiet walk to Epcot... I worry this is a thing of the past with the gondolas opening. We are looking into purchasing AKV, which we enjoy and would be happy to stay at - especially with the price and years left

We bought at AKL last year after much debate about home resort (BCV is my fav). We were NOT disappointed at all. Since purchasing we have been three times and have stayed (split stays on purpose), at BCV twice, OKW twice, BLT once, AKL once. I say go for it, you won't be disappointed, and if you plan at 7 months out at not insanely busy times of the year, you can stay at BCV easily.

 

[sachilles]

For me the 2042 expiration for many resorts is the elephant in the room.
Whatever they do, they have to stagger the release time, because you don't want the them all getting extended or whatever they decide to do then.

I could see them holding back BCV or BWV(not both), and maintaining it for cash reservations, as I think there is enough demand to get 90% cash reservations without risk. I think it's very true for BCV.
I know towers aren't well loved, but I also see another tower occupying at least a partial footprint of a current DVC epcot location. I don't think they are worried about a tower obscuring our view of the Swan or Dolphin.

 

[Minniemoo15]

We bought at AKL last year after much debate about home resort (BCV is my fav). We were NOT disappointed at all. Since purchasing we have been three times and have stayed (split stays on purpose), at BCV twice, OKW twice, BLT once, AKL once. I say go for it, you won't be disappointed, and if you plan at 7 months out at not insanely busy times of the year, you can stay at BCV easily.

Thank you so much for this!! We debated over and over where to buy since we love BCV so much - but the price per point was just crazy for the number of years left, IMO. We really do enjoy AKV so it made sense. We had our offer accepted on Monday for 240 AKV points.... I'm hoping that since we travel early March we will be able to try out some different resorts. Your post is really encouraging!

 

[bobbiwoz]

We are both in our 70’s and at some point we will start to sell our ‘42s. However BCV, BWV and VWL are our favorite resorts, so as long as we can go, those are not in the running for liquidation. That leaves VB and HH.

 

[ljmiii]

Before the resale restrictions were announced I considered buying at Riviera. But I keep coming back to the mantra of 'Buy where you want to stay'...and I just don't want to stay somewhere that's 'Almost as good' as BCV. If after Reflections they build a DVC resort at the front of EPCOT (or back of HS) then I might switch out of BCV.

 

[Cyberc1978]

No doubt. However, it's very difficult to feel much sympathy for people who enter into a contract without reading/understanding it or asking a lawyer to review it on their behalf. That's especially true for purchases costing thousands of dollars.

I understand what you mean but how many if any is reading the fine print on a timeshare contract? Imo more than 95% aren’t.

Most look at the total price, down payment after drinking the kool aid.

 

[igrsod]

Thank you so much for this!! We debated over and over where to buy since we love BCV so much - but the price per point was just crazy for the number of years left, IMO. We really do enjoy AKV so it made sense. We had our offer accepted on Monday for 240 AKV points.... I'm hoping that since we travel early March we will be able to try out some different resorts. Your post is really encouraging!

That's so exciting. You are going to love it. I agree with the ACTUAL price per point when you also factor in the number of years on the contract being too high for BCV. That's why we chose AKL. We felt it was the best value per point, and if it turned out we needed to stay there, as things were booked up at 7 months out, we would never be disappointed staying there as a home resort.
Hope all the rest of the process goes smoothly for you. It's tough waiting.