There are also factors for each individual contract that help determine how close to asking price you might expect to have to pay. A few of them are.
1. Resort - a place like VGC, very small with few resales available, vs SSR or AK which are larger and seem to have many contracts available most of the time.
2. Size of contract - smaller contracts are generally more in demand than monstrous ones. Expect to pay more per point for a 50-100 point contract than for 200 and up.
3. Points status - a loaded contract (one having some/most of last year's points) or even a contract with this year's points still available, is worth more than a stripped on (one not having points until the next UY or even further!).
4. Seller's reason for selling - some sellers, esp it seems with Fidelity (which has a contract with
DVC to have any owners calling DVC looking to sell have them referred to Fidelity) are desperate. Divorce, bankruptcy (or close) can motivate a seller to accept an offer quickly. Yet if they owe a lot more on a loan for the DVC purchase, they might not be willing or able to reduce their price since that would mean they would have to come up with additional cash over and beyond what the sale nets them to satisfy the loan. I know at Fidelity the broker tells me the seller's reason for selling, and whether there is an amount the seller need to get for the sale. I'm not sure if other brokers do this with buyers.
I'm sure there are other factors which others can add to my list as well.