I'm a little worried...how does this work? Limited capacity question.

[pittsburghmarc]

So I booked a cruise for the family first day on sale for August 14, 2021. Let's say our cruise is a GO. Is there any chance that Disney has over-booked capacity since the cruise date went on sale last spring? May some guest's reservations get cancelled even though the cruise is approved to sale because they "overbooked" not knowing capacity limitations at the time?

Thanks!

 

[HiStitch626]

As they are still actively selling that cruise, I think you would be fine. If they were concerned about capacity and felt like they had reached capacity for that particular sailing, then I think it would not be bookable at this time.

 

[BartmanLA]

It's really hard to say because DCL doesn't have any way for you to see the total number of available staterooms on any ship currently for sale. And they don't even tell you when you call if they're limiting capacity. I guess it's so they can keep booking as many staterooms as possible, for more money in the bank. I know I'm admin'ing the March 2022 WBPC group on another "site", and maintaining a list of everyone booked and which staterooms each party has, out of the 877 actual available staterooms on the Wonder, our group has booked right at 32% of the entire ship or right around 280 staterooms. Does that mean everyone else is booked in to the rest of the staterooms because the entire itinerary is completely sold out? Who's to say. I'm going to hazard a "guess" that DCL will sell 100% of the ship if they can, and if there are capacity limitations at some point they'll try to mitigate the excess through people cancelling or shifting to other cruises at some point. It's going to be interesting to see what they'll do for sure.

 

[Cheburashka]

As they are still actively selling that cruise, I think you would be fine. If they were concerned about capacity and felt like they had reached capacity for that particular sailing, then I think it would not be bookable at this time.

DCL has a year-long track record of continuing to sell cruises that they know will not and in some cases cannot even legally sail, so the fact that the cruise is still on sale doesn't indicate anything reliable.

 

[MomOTwins]

I think the Magic situation is interesting here. They cancelled all the original summer itineraries and are doing short 2-4 night UK resident only cruises instead. I could see them doing the same thing for the Dream/Fantasy/Wonder the first few months of sailing: cancel everything, create a whole new slate of itineraries, and have everyone rebook--ideally with some sort of preferential access for guests that had been cancelled.

They did something similar with restaurants at WDW last summer. All of our restuarnat reservations were cancelled all at once, but we were the first to be able rebook dining for our August trip.

Alternatively, they could cancel everyone in some categories (e.g., inside/oceanview) and given them an option to rebook to a different cruise in a verandah at no cost. That would be similar to what they did with the hotels at WDW last year: they closed a lot of the moderate/value hotels and rebooked those guests in a deluxe at no cost.

 

[otten]

I think the Magic situation is interesting here. They cancelled all the original summer itineraries and are doing short 2-4 night UK resident only cruises instead. I could see them doing the same thing for the Dream/Fantasy/Wonder the first few months of sailing: cancel everything, create a whole new slate of itineraries, and have everyone rebook--ideally with some sort of preferential access for guests that had been cancelled.

They did something similar with restaurants at WDW last summer. All of our restuarnat reservations were cancelled all at once, but we were the first to be able rebook dining for our August trip.

Alternatively, they could cancel everyone in some categories (e.g., inside/oceanview) and given them an option to rebook to a different cruise in a verandah at no cost. That would be similar to what they did with the hotels at WDW last year: they closed a lot of the moderate/value hotels and rebooked those guests in a deluxe at no cost.

Yea. I will be shocked if the first cruises that sail are ones that were originally scheduled bs newly created cruise to nowhere sailings such as in the UK.

I would be very doubtful of an August cruise sailing.

 

[figmentfinesse]

This was the cruise I rebooked from my canceled august 2020. However, I feel like there is next to no chance it sails, especially considering it is a 7 night.

I moved it to an April 2022 magic sailing. Best of luck to you!!! I hope it does end up going for you!!

 

[HiStitch626]

DCL has a year-long track record of continuing to sell cruises that they know will not and in some cases cannot even legally sail, so the fact that the cruise is still on sale doesn't indicate anything reliable.

I have no inside knowledge of what DCL is planning, and I assume you don’t either. The OP asked about the possibility that the cruise was overbooked at this time. Since Disney is still selling it, they must not consider overbooked. Since there are cruises currently listed for sale where some categories are shown as sold out, there must still be a point where DCL is limiting bookings.

 

[Sykes]

I don't have any inside information, but I can't imagine that the margin is there to allow them to sail profitably at, say, 50% capacity. Aside from perhaps a few restricted revenue sailings for the purposes of progressing through the the CDC's CSO guidelines (if that is even applicable by the time cruises restart), I imagine that they're more likely to cancel sailings than offload passengers to reduce the capacity. My bigger concern is the possibility of capacity restrictions inside individual venues on the early sailings. (e.g. Is it going to be hard get into a show or to get a drink at O'Gill's?)

 

[CamColt]

I don't think anyone knows at this point. There are so many possible scenarios we can speculate on, but until something is actually announced, that's all we really have. Frustrating I know, but unfortunately that's how things seem to be lately. Good luck!

 

[Clojel]

I don’t think they’ll just randomly cancel certain reservations to reduce capacity... I think it’s much more likely that they will a) assume “x” number of people will willingly cancel/reschedule bc their unhappy with the restrictions in place and - if needed - b) incentivize people to cancel by offering a discount on a replacement cruise or an OBB credit, etc....

 

[tvguy]

I don't think anyone knows at this point. There are so many possible scenarios we can speculate on, but until something is actually announced, that's all we really have. Frustrating I know, but unfortunately that's how things seem to be lately. Good luck!

Exactly. Almost everything is possible or impossible at this point. A virus is running things and too many people are taking risks.

 

[mevelandry]

One thing that could happen is a reassignment of the sailings. They cancel a bunch of sailings, change the dates/ports of departure and then start from scratch, giving OBC to the guests who saw their booking cancelled.

 

[Husker Mike]

I don't have any inside information, but I can't imagine that the margin is there to allow them to sail profitably at, say, 50% capacity.

Profitability is Disney's problem, not yours. But keep in mind that Disney has been incurring costs every day since mid-March 2020, with skeleton crews operating the ships. (Plus shoreside customer support.) It's not like they can just park these ships unoccupied. Making a profit on a sailing would be gravy at this point. All Disney is after is to lose less money than they will lose having the ships idling outside of Port Canaveral.

Disney would like to fill every cabin they can, to be sure. But that's not a requirement to sail again.

 

[princessmommyx3]

Profitability is Disney's problem, not yours. But keep in mind that Disney has been incurring costs every day since mid-March 2020, with skeleton crews operating the ships. (Plus shoreside customer support.) It's not like they can just park these ships unoccupied. Making a profit on a sailing would be gravy at this point. All Disney is after is to lose less money than they will lose having the ships idling outside of Port Canaveral.

Disney would like to fill every cabin they can, to be sure. But that's not a requirement to sail again.

Agree. They may not make a profit sailing at 50% capacity but they would most certainly be losing less money than they are now.

 

[MomOTwins]

Agree. They may not make a profit sailing at 50% capacity but they would most certainly be losing less money than they are now.

That was actually the case for WDW for some time after reopening too. Also, there are customer goodwill components too—at a certain point, if other cruise lines reopen and DCL does not, they may lose repeat customers who feel strung along with their FCC and lose out on prospective first timers who opt for something else instead and lose interest in trying DCL.

 

[Snowwhyt]

So I booked a cruise for the family first day on sale for August 14, 2021. Let's say our cruise is a GO. Is there any chance that Disney has over-booked capacity since the cruise date went on sale last spring? May some guest's reservations get cancelled even though the cruise is approved to sale because they "overbooked" not knowing capacity limitations at the time?

Thanks!

We are on a seven day sailing two weeks after you. Setting aside the employment numbers needed on four ships that might cause a delay in one or more of the ship restarts. I believe a large group of people will, figuratively, “jump ship” once start-ups begin. Because They don’t want masks, want characters available, don’t want to sign up for shows or water rides, don’t wanna pay for last minute airfare that they thought they wouldn’t need. And that’s OK hopefully all these things will eventually disappear for them. And that will help bring down those minimum numbers you mentioned.
But I believe the seven day (plus) cruises will be the last to return to the schedule. The ruling to return immediately to home port with the first Covid infection on the ship will be risky business. If you consider running 7 day where infections can spread or show up in the third day, a three or four day sailing would be less risky.
I don’t think Disney would do this, but if they offered seven day cruises with vaccines and then shorter cruises with no vaccine??? Prolly not.
So could you imagine going on a 12, 13, or 14 day cruise, and on day seven or eight having to return back home???

 

[JOY K]

I think the Magic situation is interesting here. They cancelled all the original summer itineraries and are doing short 2-4 night UK resident only cruises instead. I could see them doing the same thing for the Dream/Fantasy/Wonder the first few months of sailing: cancel everything, create a whole new slate of itineraries, and have everyone rebook--ideally with some sort of preferential access for guests that had been cancelled.

They did something similar with restaurants at WDW last summer. All of our restuarnat reservations were cancelled all at once, but we were the first to be able rebook dining for our August trip.

Alternatively, they could cancel everyone in some categories (e.g., inside/oceanview) and given them an option to rebook to a different cruise in a verandah at no cost. That would be similar to what they did with the hotels at WDW last year: they closed a lot of the moderate/value hotels and rebooked those guests in a deluxe at no cost.

I'm so worried that you could be right. We booked our verry first cruise, a 4 night on the Dream in November. Way back last August when they first were opened to everyone. I'm afraid that even though we booked so far in advance and have waited all this time, we could end up being bumped. I'm afraid that especially with limited capacity, if my trip is one of the first to go, they will clear the bookings and it will fill up with people who are gold and silver cast away club members before we could even rebook our cruise. If we have at least paid in full by that time we will have a shot at rebooking, but then have to wait a whole nother year to go if we can't bc we can only go in the fall. If we haven't paid in full then we will have to start over from scratch paying the full price (which could be more and probably will be.

I can deal with it if they just don't sail. I will be devistated but I will understand if due to limited capacity only the cast away club members get to go. I will be furious if people who are not even booked on my cruise get to take the trip I have waited a year and a half for and I don't.

 

[JOY K]

I think the Magic situation is interesting here. They cancelled all the original summer itineraries and are doing short 2-4 night UK resident only cruises instead. I could see them doing the same thing for the Dream/Fantasy/Wonder the first few months of sailing: cancel everything, create a whole new slate of itineraries, and have everyone rebook--ideally with some sort of preferential access for guests that had been cancelled.

They did something similar with restaurants at WDW last summer. All of our restuarnat reservations were cancelled all at once, but we were the first to be able rebook dining for our August trip.

Alternatively, they could cancel everyone in some categories (e.g., inside/oceanview) and given them an option to rebook to a different cruise in a verandah at no cost. That would be similar to what they did with the hotels at WDW last year: they closed a lot of the moderate/value hotels and rebooked those guests in a deluxe at no cost.

I'm so worried that you could be right. We booked our verry first cruise, a 4 night on the Dream in November. Way back last August when they first were opened to everyone. I'm afraid that even though we booked so far in advance and have waited all this time, we could end up being bumped. I'm afraid that especially with limited capacity, if my trip is one of the first to go, they will clear the bookings and it will fill up with people who are gold and silver cast away club members before we could even rebook our cruise. If we have at least paid in full by that time we will have a shot at rebooking, but then have to wait a whole nother year to go if we can't bc we can only go in the fall. If we haven't paid in full then we will have to start over from scratch paying the full price (which could be more and probably will be.

I can deal with it if they just don't sail. I will be devistated but I will understand if due to limited capacity only the cast away club members get to go. I will be furious if people who are not even booked on my cruise get to take the trip I have waited a year and a half for and I don't.

 

[pittsburghmarc]

Thank you all for your responses. Some very good thoughts here. I have to say, I'm not as confident in my sailing as I was prior to posting this!