I mean at this point, why is anyone buying direct?

[tjkraz]

Our timeshares are shares of leased property- on Jan 31 the lease is up. They would have to pull a OKW and extend the lease for this to happen.

Owners would not have any rights to stay beyond 1/31/42. However there is nothing prohibiting Disney from offering use of its property beyond that date.

 

[hglenn]

Someone's going to try and bank in 2041, I guarantee it.

I'm not banking.. I'll be the one trying to borrow into 2041!

 

[Sandisw]

Someone's going to try and bank in 2041, I guarantee it.

The DVC resort ceases January 31st, 2042 so there will be no where to bank them to.

Once we get to Feb 1st, 2042, the land and building are DIsneys.

 

[intamin]

The DVC resort ceases January 31st, 2042 so there will be no where to bank them to.

Once we get to Feb 1st, 2042, the land and building are DIsneys.

Exactly my point hahah but I guarantee someone’s going to ask about banking when theres nowhere to bank to

 

[Floridian From Afar]

I just bought Riviera direct (started out as a VGF contract and then switched). My thinking was that if I'm taking consistent trips to WDW over the years, there "might" be a time where having those direct points will be beneficial. It didn't make sense to me to make a 45+ year commitment and risk missing out on things down the road. So I figured buy in now cause it'll only get more expensive in the future.
Everyone's situation is difficult. I will say that now after buying my 1st direct contract and having those benefits locked in, any future contract will likely be resale.

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

You bought RIV points? Direct? I though you were a never-Riviera because of the restrictions.


This is exactly the analysis we went through when deciding whether to add on to BLT or not. Our prior BLT resale points were unrestricted, but if we added on, we would have had some restricted points. The delta was around $5,000 as I recall, and we did the pre-opening "tour" on a move day for a split stay. What did we get for $5000 extra (in order of importance):
1. new home resort near EP/HS
2. nonstripped contract, immediate choice of UY
3. instant gratification
3a. Booked a New Years stay in April 2019 48 hours later - with spectacular fireworks views
4. easy transportation to our second resort for our split stay
5. free FPs on a very heavy holiday week
5a. we had to go to Poly to re-sign some docs, it took about an hour, and they gave us MORE free FPs for the inconvenience
5b. some issue with FPs being pulled from the correct account and inventory (e.g. using an "all access" FP for a low priority ride in MK etc), which led to even more FPs
6. free ice cream

while some of these are tongue in cheek, the FP snafu ended up having the effect of us not waiting in line for much of anything after we bought - it felt like the equivalent of a VIP tour .... over 4-5 days. For us, we liked Riviera resort, preferred the room layout over BCV/BWV and that was already worth the extra $5000. We spent New Year's at Riviera over 2019 and 2021 and IMO it's the best resort because you can see fireworks at MK and Epcot.

I know. It was a mistake. We should have stuck to our original opinion. Not that I don’t like RIV, but we are in the process of selling a couple of contracts and unfortunately we don’t feel like we can sell RIV because we will lose money on it (restrictions). We ended up selling resale which we are making money on even in this environment. SO BEWARE ALL! No one ever thinks they will sell. But then Disney stops selling APs or whatever it is that is your personal red line. And psychologically it’s a lot easier selling a resale contract that isn’t restricted to one darn (wanted to type something else) resort that you won’t lose on.

 

[Nursemanit]

Owners would not have any rights to stay beyond 1/31/42. However there is nothing prohibiting Disney from offering use of its property beyond that date.

Yes, Disney could let you or anyone stay for free.

 

[JoeyPeligroso]

Yes, Disney could let you or anyone stay for free.

This sounds like a great perk (maybe the next AP member benefit when DVC runs out?) - Sign me up!

 

[JoeyPeligroso]

This sounds like a great perk (maybe the next AP member benefit when DVC runs out?) - Sign me up!

In fact, maybe this is the new title of a great follow-on thread: “I mean at this point, why is anyone buying an AP?”

 

[Sparkle_Steffie]

ok. I’m hearing…

1. Gambling on APs
2. Unrestricted points

I get both of those. I hope you’re right on APs. If I were buying now, however, I don’t know if I would buy for the gamble. I might buy some resale and then wait and buy direct later if APs come back. I don’t know. @Nursemanit how much of a spread we’re you willing to gamble? Was 4k kind of the limit?

And @davidhr was the draw just riviera and future resorts? Or do you use points to cruise and concierge too?

THIS. ^^^

I have a small points* contract that I intend to use every year for a three weeknight/"long weekend" stay. That means the only AP that would make sense for me is Pixie Dust. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think that was ever an option?
So my choices were to buy 150pts at $217/pt for $35k... OR buy a small resale contract at $3,500 all in?

Sorry not sorry, I'm cool missing out on the free pop and $10 cake at the lounges. My apologies to Riviera, lol.

SOLD.


*pending ROFR

 

[Sparkle_Steffie]

I didn’t want to finance, so I bought small contracts direct (25-50 points a contract) as I could pay cash for them. I paid more in closing costs, but I also see myself as having an easy out if I ever want to sell. The cost savings for those small contracts felt minimal compared to the benefit.

THIS. I bought my (first?) small points contract as cash only. Closing costs will always be cheaper than financing. I'm not sure if I will get add-on-itus, but if I do, I'm well positioned.

 

[Sparkle_Steffie]

Can you explain to me why you think I needed to spend half a million to save that money when I gave you the price per point that I paid.

AUL: $217 direct - $96 resale = $121pp
$121 * 575 points = $69,575.

VGC: $320 direct - $225 resale = $95pp
$95 * 200 points = $19,000

Total saved: $69,575 + $19,000 = $88,575

$96 * 575 = $55,200
$225 * 200 = $44,000

Total spent: $55,200 + $44,000 = $100,200

How are we trashing direct? We're just stating facts??

 

[tjkraz]

Yes, Disney could let you or anyone stay for free.

DVC created a situation in which it will be impossible for all owners to use their points. The program will effectively be over-sold in 2041-42. Barring some late-term rules change, December UY will be able to borrow those 2041 points and use them sooner. But the resort capacity will be such that only a fraction of owners can actually do that. Only February Use Years will get the full 12 months of resort capacity to use their final set of points. Every other UY will have lesser capacity if 1/31/42 is treated as a hard deadline.

And this will happen as DVC is attempting to re-sell those tens-of-thousands of owners on new contracts. And even more owners are watching with curiosity to see how DVC treats the end of the contract. Not a great look.

Before Covid, I would have been skeptical myself. But the points extensions and liberal cancellation policies effectively DID give away resort stays. The WDW resorts were closed for 25% of the year, Aulani for 60% and VGC for more than a full year. DVC would have been perfectly justified in canceling some owner points due to the loss of capacity. But they didn't.

The dilemma in 2041 will be very similar.

I'm not saying that this absolutely will happen. But seeing how DVC responded to covid--and given that it's a problem of Disney's own making--there's reason to think they'll take a member-friendly approach rather than tossing their proverbial hands in the air and saying "sorry, not our problem."

 

[🍀TwinsMom]

DVC created a situation in which it will be impossible for all owners to use their points. The program will effectively be over-sold in 2041-42. Barring some late-term rules change, December UY will be able to borrow those 2041 points and use them sooner. But the resort capacity will be such that only a fraction of owners can actually do that. Only February Use Years will get the full 12 months of resort capacity to use their final set of points. Every other UY will have lesser capacity if 1/31/42 is treated as a hard deadline.

And this will happen as DVC is attempting to re-sell those tens-of-thousands of owners on new contracts. And even more owners are watching with curiosity to see how DVC treats the end of the contract. Not a great look.

Before Covid, I would have been skeptical myself. But the points extensions and liberal cancellation policies effectively DID give away resort stays. The WDW resorts were closed for 25% of the year, Aulani for 60% and VGC for more than a full year. DVC would have been perfectly justified in canceling some owner points due to the loss of capacity. But they didn't.

The dilemma in 2041 will be very similar.

I'm not saying that this absolutely will happen. But seeing how DVC responded to covid--and given that it's a problem of Disney's own making--there's reason to think they'll take a member-friendly approach rather than tossing their proverbial hands in the air and saying "sorry, not our problem."

I'm genuinely curious, how will DVC be oversold for 2041/2042 when the six resorts expire? Correct me if I am wrong, but as the 2042s run out the clock on their points, that last year or two with banking and borrowing will be the end of the tail of those points to swap out at the remaining resorts. So, that's also six resorts with no points now out of commission. What am I missing?

 

[tjkraz]

I'm genuinely curious, how will DVC be oversold for 2041/2042 when the six resorts expire? Correct me if I am wrong, but as the 2042s run out the clock on their points, that last year or two with banking and borrowing will be the end of the tail of those points to swap out at the remaining resorts. So, that's also six resorts with no points now out of commission. What am I missing?

Members typically have 12 months of time to use their share of a resort.

February owners have 12 months to use their 2023 points. March owners have 12 months to use their 2023 points. April owners have 12 months to use their 2023 points. And so on.

But consider how much less time every owner will have to use their 2041 points:

- February: 12 months
- March: 11 months
- April: 10 months
- June: 8 months
- August: 6 months
- September: 5 months
- October: 4 months
- December: 2 months

All things being equal, owners can borrow points to use them sooner, but that simply squeezes out 2040 points. That's not even taking into account the gradual decline of point banking, which will also apply pressure on availability.

The last few years are likely to get quite messy. I guess it depends on how messy DVC wants it to be.

 

[🍀TwinsMom]

Ohhhh, okay. I get you now.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program/fin...cember-2022-direct-sales-and-year-end-wrap-up

Direct sales have declined recently but is doing fine overall. Seems like Riviera resale restrictions isn’t much of a hindrance. Nor is the price point.

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

but is doing fine overall

Is it though? They’re about to have 4 resorts plus Aulani in active sales. I’m sure they thought they could sell out at least one of VGF and Riv before Poly2 came online and it looks like they’re not going to be able to do that. Not even close if current trends continue. Plus I bet that as poly2 gets closer some who might have bought Riv, but especially GF, will wait. This will especially be the case if Poly2 is a new association with a new 50 year contract compared to the shorter contract that RIv has and the even shorter contract that GF will have by that point.

 

[RoseGold]

So I asked this question because I was wondering what happens to DVC if people do not keep buying direct?

Easy. For a while it competes with itself. But after a while, It becomes like every other timeshare. There are plenty of suckers buying those too.

 

[tjkraz]

Is it though? They’re about to have 4 resorts plus Aulani in active sales. I’m sure they thought they could sell out at least one of VGF and Riv before Poly2 came online and it looks like they’re not going to be able to do that. Not even close if current trends continue.

Poly 2 was always looking like a late-2024 opening. Probably 15-18 months before they begin marketing Poly points. VGF will be sold out before then.

Based upon its initial sales pace, many people assumed VGF would sell out by summer 2023, before they began marketing Disneyland Hotel. That appears very unlikely. But a sell-out by spring/summer 2024 is still in the cards.