Hurricane Season

[kathleena]

The only time I've ever seen devastation along the magnitude of a hurricane during a winter storm up North is when the ice storm hit all across the Northeast in January 1998. Snowstorms and blizzards or Nor'easters are just not the same as a hurricane - yes they are a pain, and cost a lot of money to move the snow around, but you don't have roofs blowing off and windows blowing out and flooding etc etc etc. You are usually safe and warm in your house - unless the power goes off - and then that is usually only for a day, max. Most of the time just for a few hours.

The ice storm was another story - but in 52 years of living in Maine, that was the only ice storm of it's kind.

I'll take my chances with snowstorms over hurricanes any day.

Having said that, I'm looking forward to my August WDW trip this year.

 

[CHOPR]

I saw on the news the other day that the "experts" are expecting an active hurricane season. I think we can almost guarantee a very quiet season now. The past years were supposed to be warm winters in the n/e due to global warming. Well the past two winters have been downright frigid.
Good luck and with a little pixie dust all will be well

 

[WDWLVR]

We have the DVC cruise and a WDW visit planned for September so we are hoping the storms stay away.

When we flew down for our cruise last December we saw lots and lots of roofs that still had blue tarps on them waiting to have the damage fixed. Hopefully the storms will stay away this year, not just for us tourists but more importantly for the residents of Florida.

 

[Deb & Bill]

I saw on the news the other day that the "experts" are expecting an active hurricane season. I think we can almost guarantee a very quiet season now. The past years were supposed to be warm winters in the n/e due to global warming. Well the past two winters have been downright frigid.
Good luck and with a little pixie dust all will be well

We had a very mild winter in the south. We also had a mild spring that lasted longer than normal. The waters in the Gulf and Caribbean are warm and will probably spawn a few hurricanes. Hope it's not as bad as last year.

 

[disgirl]

I just heard the reports on the nightly news about the hurricanes expected to hit again this season. With an end of August trip planned, needless to say, I am a little apprehensive about this trip. We are only staying in a studio, too. I really am hoping all will be calm.

I can not even imagine those poor Floridians going through another season of hurricanes. Let us hope those storms stay away!!

 

[rayelias]

You know, I've heard all the reports, too. "This is going to be a bad hurricane season!"

I can't trust the meteorologists to predict an accurate forecast for 5 days out. There's no way I'm going to trust them to predict the weather 5 months out!

Take it with a grain of salt. I'd suspect that much of the "doom and gloom" is for ratings. No one would be talking if they said it was going to be a mild hurricane season.

 

[Deb & Bill]

You know, I've heard all the reports, too. "This is going to be a bad hurricane season!"

I can't trust the meteorologists to predict an accurate forecast for 5 days out. There's no way I'm going to trust them to predict the weather 5 months out!

Take it with a grain of salt. I'd suspect that much of the "doom and gloom" is for ratings. No one would be talking if they said it was going to be a mild hurricane season.

When you live in PA, you don't have to worry much about hurricanes. Just the rain storms that might make their way north afterwards. Scientists are improving forecasting for hurricanes all the time because of the devastation left behind. I've heard about the potential for bad storms this year because of the hurricanes that hit last year. We are already looking at who from our hospital might be able to head south or east to help the other hospitals in our organization.

 

[rayelias]

When you live in PA, you don't have to worry much about hurricanes. Just the rain storms that might make their way north afterwards. Scientists are improving forecasting for hurricanes all the time because of the devastation left behind. I've heard about the potential for bad storms this year because of the hurricanes that hit last year. We are already looking at who from our hospital might be able to head south or east to help the other hospitals in our organization.

I grew up on the NJ shoreline, so I'm very aware of the damage hurricanes cause. I've personally been through dozens and dozens, a couple of which were pretty bad (Category 4).

I'm also aware that "bad news" sells much better than good news.

I believe that because of the devistation caused by the very unusual number of destructive hurricanes that hit last year, the news media is capitalizing on that in order to increase ratings.

As bad as all the storms were last year and all the damage, if memory serves, the number and the severity was something that hasn't been seen in about 100 years.

The odds that this season will equal or exceed last season's storms is extremely slim.

Of course there are going to be hurricanes. And, there is a chance that several will reach ground. And, there is a chance that they will be rather damaging. So, don't think I'm white washing it.

All I'm saying is that trying to predict weather 5 months out is much harder than predicting it 5 days out, and it's not that easy to do for 5 days.

 

[sprite]

We were supposed to fly home from our trip the day that Charley hit last August. Everyone, CM's, limo driver, airport baggage guy, etc. told us - no problem - hurricanes don't come through Orlando - you'll be fine.

We went to the airport early, checked our baggage and got our boarding passes. Everyone still saying it would be fine. Luckily we had a bad feeling and made a room reservation at the airport hotel "just-in-case". We checked in at 1:30, our flight was supposed to depart at 5:45. The airport closed at 5:30. This was Friday. We were stuck at the airport until Sunday evening.

We had nothing to do for those 2 days but watch local news. The devastation was swift and unexpected. The people working at the airport were like zombies - we went to the disney store at one point and one of the cms had lost his home, but had to go to work anyway.

I very quickly stopped feeling sorry for myself for being stuck in the $$$ hotel for two nights.


Guess what - we are going back in August this year. Our anniversary is in August and we will go, even though it is hurricane season.

 

[JimMIA]

The conditions are certainly right for an active hurricane season, and that's all the forecasters are saying. We are in the middle of a long cycle of more active weather to begin with, water temperatures in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico are relatively warm for this time of year, we have had sparse rainfall during May in South Florida. All of those things are indicators.

But they don't mean we will have any hurricanes hit WDW. In fact, the odds are quite heavy that Orlando will not get hit. Orlando doesn't have hurricanes...as we all know! Okay...they had three last year, but that was a once every thousand years phenomenon.

For the poster who said, "...and we're only staying in a studio," don't worry. A studio is not a pup tent pitched on the lawn. It's in a big, strong, concrete block building, and you'll be fine. If anything, a studio would be more safe than a larger unit because you have fewer and smaller glass areas. I'm assuming DVC does not have hurricane shutters - if they do, it doesn't matter what kind of unit you are in, you'll be fine. Inconvenienced, yes -- but endangered? Naw.

 

[JimMIA]

Just a little hurricane 411 for those of you who aren't familiar with them.

Hurricanes cause a tremendous amount of cosmetic damage, which is one reason the news media loves them. The damage is also widespread, and minimal effects of a hurricane are often felt more than 100 miles away from the center of the storm.

But the heavy structural damage from hurricanes is over a much smaller area near the center of the storm. Depending on the specifics of a particular storm, that damage may range from utter devastation to relatively minor, and it can also be much more random than you would think. In Hurricane Andrew, we suffered one cracked window, but our neighbor across the street got completely blown out and their home was a total loss.

It's unfortunate that we measure hurricanes primarily by wind speed, because with rare exceptions, wind is not what causes the most damage. Most of the damage is caused by water - either storm tides on the coast or localized flooding inland. Hurricane Andrew in 1992 was primarily a wind storm, but that is very unusual. All four of the hurricanes which hit Florida last year were primarily water storms, and that is much more normal.

The high winds are only found in or very near the "eyewall" of the storm. Typical hurricane eyes range from 25-50 miles wide, and the strongest winds would only occur 10-20 miles beyond that. If you are 100 miles from the center of a hurricane, you may well not even have gale force (39 mph+) sustained winds.

If you are watching a hurricane, go to www.nhc.noaa.gov or www.wunderground.com and look at the windfield maps. They will show you where the heavy winds really are, and their information will be several hours more current than what you see on TV. You can also watch the satellite loops almost in real time. In the "Discussion" portion of the forecasts, you will also see a wind chart which tells how far out winds extend in each quadrant of the storm.

People get very frightened by hurricanes, so it is important to know what the real threats are.

The overwhelming majority of deaths and serious injuries in hurricanes are among three groups of people: 1) people who stayed in trailer parks, ignoring evacuation orders, 2) people who were out on the roads despite authorities' warnings to stay inside, and 3) people who go outside after the storm and get electrocuted by live wires down. The other likely suspects are surfers who want to surf the big waves and get on TV, and people who ignore the warnings to stay indoors when the eye of the hurricane passes over (like the guy who stepped outside for a cigarette during one of the storms last year and was killed by flying debris).

If you happen to get extremely unlucky, and get caught in a hurricane at DVC in WDW, you'll be fine if you stay indoors.

If you're at Hilton Head or Vero, you'd better evacuate - which I'm sure the resort management will force you to do anyway, if it is necessary.

If you're on a cruise, you will have beautiful weather. The cruise ship will simply alter course, get behind the storm, and enjoy great weather. You may miss a port of call or two, but you won't be in any danger.

 

[rayelias]

JimMIA,

Great post! Thanks!

And, believe it or not, you've helped make the point I was trying to get across. Hurricanes can be horrible events, but with common sense, the most important assets (people) can be saved.

It seems that there was a quite a bit of concern about whether or not people should actually cancel their vacations because they were in "hurricane season". Just because it's the "season" doesn't mean it's one long storm. No need to cancel your trips - especially if you're staying on-property. Those hotels are built like fortresses. As I mentioned in a previous post, we were down there last year for one of the later hurricanes. Of the 5 days we were there, we were inconvenienced for a day and a half. Other than that, it was beautiful weather!

Yeah, you MIGHT get caught in a hurricane during your vacation. You MIGHT also get hit by a bus. Life's about the odds. The odds that your vacation will coincide with a hurricane of such magnitude that will lead to your family's ultimate demise is so slim, it's not even worth discussing. Especially if you follow instructions and don't do anything stupid. Typically, your normal, average thunderstorm isn't dangerous. But, stand outside holding a metal rod in the air, and they suddenly become so.

It's like saying, "I won't vacation in California because they have earthquakes."

However, since I've got 2 WDW vacations scheduled during "hurricane season", perhaps I should be spreading the scare. Shorter lines for me! But, since I really don't want my fellow DISers to miss out on the magic, let me say I hope anyone who is concerned about spending their vacation in WDW during "hurricane season" decides to join us for a wonderful time.

That is, however, unless you're staying in a studio in BWV from 11/7-11/10 during F&W. You shouldn't come. (I'm on the wait list!)

 

[pyrxtc]

Quick question - The prediction for the biggest part of this hurricane season is Septmber 26 to october 20th, yes?? I know it's months away but I was just surprised that it was going to be while we were down there. I purposely booked for October since last year they all hit in September more. What luck!!

 

[pogopossum]

as has been stated so eloquently by our miami friend earlier, any visitors to wdw and the orlando area during sep - oct have the odds in their favor for a totally unaffected vacation, last year not withstanding. last year was what most would call a freak year for many reasons.

as was also stated that area is far enough inland that the storms have calmed quite a bit by the time they get there. wdw is also designed to take as little damage as possible. in fact, many that live in the area go there to ride out the storm, having been told that by my retired cm fil. they thought about coming over to cs while we were there for that reason. as it got closer they decided that they would be fine at their house. the biggest concern for most residents at that time was that much of the debris from charley had not been picked up and would be a hazard in the wind. this was not the case at the world, things were cleaned up immediately and there was no danger of that kind of thing. power lines are also not a real hazard at wdw, because over 70% of them are underground and do not fall. which also means that you would not lose power to your resort.

the biggest problem with frances last year was water, which was exacerbated by duration. once the storm reached the bahamas, it slowed to nearly a crawl, and took over 30 hours to cross the state, while dumping water the whole time, so low lying areas were in the most danger. wdw even evaced another resort to ours because of flood potential. overall i would sa that wdw was very prepared and we never felt as i f we were in danger by being there.

the weather on either side of the storm was really nice, and since the airport was closed, for three days, the crowd at mk was really nonexistent the day that they reopened.

so all in all, i would say first don't let these predictions cause you any worry, you probably will miss the storm, if there is one at all. if there is one, and you are really worried about this, then buy the trip insurance if you can not be flexible in rescheduling, or be ready for an interesting time at wdw if you are there for the storm.