Hurricane Irma?

[OnceUponATime15]

Miami is starting evacuations tonight. Any word on whether they're going to start contraflow?

Believe it or not, the State of Florida has (as of May 2017) has a new evacuation plan.. it makes use of the shoulders of the highways & interstates. Apparently
Contraflow will only be used as a "last resort".

I'm wondering if they are rethinking this idea right about now...

Here is a link to what was published back in may with the details.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/transportation/fl-hurricane-one-way-evacuations-20170518-story.html

 

[tinkermom4]

Update on our 9/9 trip: after 6 hours on the phone "today" (several last night too!) I finally escalated to the right CM that would honor our bb offer when shifting our trip to checking in on 9/12. After first being told it was a $1,000 difference I insisted on escalating to a manager. CM said it would be a wait and I laughed it off...waiting all day, what's another hour! She was not like some have reported where they tried to convince you to stay. She was ready to just give me a refund. Moral of story...be patient and keep trying. There is someone there with the magic button! I had to pay only 66.11 to shift our days. We will have our exact package, same hotel, room type, tickets, and free dining. They will also let us cancel it completely with 100% refund on our check in day. FYI for those worried about canceling and having a time limit do so with refund.

Now to change ADRs. Stay safe wherever you are!

 

[AndreaA]

When is the next expected update? 8pm?

 

[xWilliam]

When is the next expected update? 8pm?

I think GFS and the other global models will update around 8pm est and again around 2am est. I think NHA (NOAA) should be updating around 11pm est. And i think ECMWF should update around 2am est

 

[Honeybee0317]

When is the next expected update? 8pm?

The 18z GFS just came in. It takes her off the East coast into SC, with no landfall in FL.

 

[DLM1980]

Believe it or not, the State of Florida has (as of May 2017) has a new evacuation plan.. it makes use of the shoulders of the highways & interstates. Apparently
Contraflow will only be used as a "last resort".

I'm wondering if they are rethinking this idea right about now...

Here is a link to what was published back in may with the details.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/transportation/fl-hurricane-one-way-evacuations-20170518-story.html

I quickly read this, I don't know Florida's roadways much yet, but it does say there is a portion of the turnpike that is back to the old way when it's a CAT 3 or higher.

 

[Rachel Underwood]

Anyone on the worst case safety concerns while on Disney property?

 

[BK2014]

When is the next expected update? 8pm?

Whenever @xWilliam decides to make another post. I am sure glad he decided to join the DIS this morning to share his expertise. Still waiting to find out where he studied meteorology.

 

[MandyLovesMulan]

I asked upthread, but most responses seem geared towards vacations this week (unless I missed it, then I'm truly sorry). We're scheduled to fly out the morning of Wednesday the 12th before our cruise the following Monday. Is all vacation hope lost?

If you are on a cruise, Irma may have made some of your destinations not visitable; my parents went on a cruise a year before and after a hurricane, and after the hurricane, all the island trees were gone . . . the hurricane leveled it.

I hope your cruise and destinations are all well and functioning on your trip. I love cruises.

 

[KimBean]

The bottom line is if you decide to go be prepared to take care of yourself for 24 hours. If Disney has a room available they will be glad to sell it to you, if they don't they won't throw you out of the lobby. If you are driving down be aware that there might be gas shortages.

For some they will sell it. For some they will give it away for free. For some they won't have it at all you might get a cot. There are caps on how many people you can have in a building disaster or not, so some will not have that. There is no way to know who will have or won't have anything.

In Matthew some had food, entertainment and power. Some didn't have any of that.

No one can say.

 

[xWilliam]

The 18z GFS just came in. It takes her off the East coast into SC, with no landfall in FL.

Looks similar to the 00z and 06z from earlier

 

[Honeybee0317]

I think GFS and the other global models will update around 8pm est and again around 2am est. I think NHA (NOAA) should be updating around 11pm est. And i think ECMWF should update around 2am est

GFS starts running again around 11:30pm est, Euro around 2am.

The 18z GFS just came in. It takes her off the East coast into SC, with no landfall in FL.

Oh and this will change probably when it runs again at 11:30ish tonight. Lol.

 

[awalker1015]

What do you mean by "aggravation"? Frustrated residents getting things fixed up? Stressed airport travelers? Food shortages?

All that. After living in coastal SC for a decade and weathering several minor storms, the weeks following a storm are aggravating due to general clean up needs, shortage of necessities such as groceries and gas, and other issues. After hurricane Floyd Charleston was besieged with love bugs for days. All kinds of issues can ensue to cause aggravation.

ETA- when we lived there I managed a vacation rental company and the incoming guests right after an evacuation was lifted were the worst. Major expectations about their trip while some of us has no power, water etc. I recall one guest wanting compensation for her favorite restaurant being closed. Another for the pier being closed one day while being repaired. It just astounded me how short sighted and selfish people could be. Thankfully I'm not in the that industry anymore.

 

[erinch]

As a word to the wise, when a CM confirms arrangements for you be sure to get information of exactly who you talked to and when and exactly what they said. I once had complicated shifts and refunds not "take" in the system and I needed all that info the negotiate it again.

 

[AndreaA]

Whenever @xWilliam decides to make another post. I am sure glad he decided to join the DIS this morning to share his expertise. Still waiting to find out where he studied meteorology.

I for one like seeing his charts. I'm tired of searching around for models, some on sites that are difficult to navigate. If someone is willing to do it for me, more power to them.

 

[Nohal]

I've cancelled flights with SW several times, unrelated to weather. They issue you a voucher that must be used within 1 year from your original booking date. By the original person the ticket was issued to.

How late can I cancel my flight? Do you know the best phone number to call Disney?

 

[Draydey]

My uncle who booked the trip had been on hold for almost 4 hours with guest services to see if we can still get free dining if we move our trip next week. Plus my job is trying to work with me and change the schedule for next week this is stressful!

 

[Honeybee0317]

Looks similar to the 00z and 06z from earlier

Yeah, on another more "weather" type board I follow, they are liking the GFS, not the NAM, and hoping the Euro doesn't happen. The NHC seems to like the Euro though, so who knows. Its still nothing concrete. I mean yesterday's models threw some of those guys, and they've been watching Irma constantly.

 

[perditax]

I'm pretty sure NHC will update their official track at 8pm, it's every three hours when a storm is impacting inhabited areas (or so it has always seemed to me).

 

[xWilliam]

Whenever @xWilliam decides to make another post. I am sure glad he decided to join the DIS this morning to share his expertise. Still waiting to find out where he studied meteorology.

Apparently me posting updated ECMWF, GFS, and NHA data makes me an expert. Where's my paycheck?

I just want people to stay informed. I haven't once said that this is the absolute path. I'm just posting data from world renowned hurricane model forecasting