Hurricane Irene - Wed, 2 PM update, page 4, post 53

[JimMIA]

Thanks for the storm updates, Jim!

Do you by chance have any info as far as the hit that Disney's island Castaway Cay may sustain? That is also located in the Bahamas. I know there have been some asking on the Cruise Board, and with the upcoming DVC Member Cruise stopping there 2x next month, there has been some concern.

Thank you again!

Can't cut it that fine, CarolAnn! We won't know that until we watch it on the satellite loop as it's happening.

Castaway Cay is located just west of the southern end of Great Abaco Island, and it looks like it's directly in the bullseye right now...but that can and probably will change. However, see the remarks above about the size of the storm and related winds and seas.

If the bulk of the storm passes east of Great Abaco, that may provide some shelter from the winds, but probably not much protection from rising seas. Most of those little islands are only a few feet in elevation, so we'll just have to see what happens.

 

[JimMIA]

Great news for anyone headed to disney - not great for us in NC. Plus the earthquake that just hit DC - rough week for the east coast! I guess some people felt it here in Raleigh, I heard what sounded like my toddler's train set moving, but the toddler is asleep - was sure someone was in the house or it was haunted. THen i heard about the earthquake about the same time, so I'm going with earthquake made the trains roll a little.

Does your child have a Magic Elf? If so, that would be my suspect.

 

[disprincessatheart]

Does your child have a Magic Elf? If so, that would be my suspect.

Not that I know of maybe one of these

 

[WilsonFlyer]

OK... "Jim" "MIA" maybe Miami and not missing in action?!?

I know you've posted this before but don't you actually work at the Hurricane Center? MIA airport?

 

[JimMIA]

OK... "Jim" "MIA" maybe Miami and not missing in action?!?

I know you've posted this before but don't you actually work at the Hurricane Center? MIA airport?

Oh, goodness NO!!! I just read the NHC reports.

And they're not located at MIA, they're actually located on the campus of Florida International University here in Miami. I don't have any connection with any of those organizations -- except as a frequent flyer out of MIA.

 

[Jax1]

I am supposed travel to Vero Beach tomorrow and am fearful, I do not want to stuck traveling in thunderstorms that make it impossible to see. Any insight as to how it's looking tomorrow?

 

[WilsonFlyer]

Kool. Thanks for clarifying that. Don't know why I thought I remembered that.

Keep pushin' that thing EAST. Up until a few hours ago, I was square in her headlights and I didn't like the looks of the train. Still way too early to breathe deeply yet but at least I can breathe again.

 

[WilsonFlyer]

I am supposed travel to Vero Beach tomorrow and am fearful, I do not want to stuck traveling in thunderstorms that make it impossible to see. Any insight as to how it's looking tomorrow?

WAY too far south still for you to have to worry about anything tomorrow, I would think.

If you hit any thunderstorms, they won't be related to Irene.

 

[JimMIA]

I am supposed travel to Vero Beach tomorrow and am fearful, I do not want to stuck traveling in thunderstorms that make it impossible to see. Any insight as to how it's looking tomorrow?

The weather tomorrow will be as good as it gets.

If you are in Florida, you're probably going to have thunderstorms. The hurricane has nothing to do with it, and will have no effect on your trip. It's just summer in Florida...it rains here.

If you get in a bad storm and don't feel comfortable driving, get off an expressway if you're on one, then get off the road and pull into a parking lot somewhere and wait. The storm will pass in a few minutes.

 

[JimMIA]

I'll do another update tomorrow morning, but there is no significant change in Irene. She sprung a little leak in her eye and is being affected by some wind-shear and weakened to a Category One storm.

That's temporary and she will regain intensity and become a Category Three major hurricane later in the week.

The track remains essentially unchanged.

Irene should not be an issue for either VB (except for some rough seas that should be avoided) or WDW. It now looks like the closest she'll get to Florida is about 200 miles east of West Palm Beach Thursday afternoon.

 

[DizDays]

Thanks for the updates Jim. Always very helpful. I'll look for your morning update.

 

[cel_disney]

Here in MA and I'm anxious to see your morning update! =)

 

[JimMIA]

Sorry for the delay, but I wanted to wait for the 2 PM info before posting because the storm was going through some changes over the last 24 hours.

Basically, there is no huge change in the storm from a day or two ago. Irene is being impacted by some wind shear, and she was under some influence from the mountains of Hispaniola earlier, and that combination caused a weakening of the storm all the way down to Category One. But as expected, she quickly recovered.

She is still facing some wind shear, but she's now over the very warm waters of the Bahamas, which is like throwing gasoline on a fire. She has strengthened from a Category One to Category Three major hurricane again, and will become a very dangerous Category Four storm by tomorrow morning...if not sooner.

Irene currently has sustained winds of 120 MPH, with gusts to 140. 12-foot seas extend outward 300 miles to the NW, and 360 miles to the NE. She's now moving NW at 10 Kt. By tomorrow morning, she is expected to have sustained winds of 135 MPH, and the gusts will probably be 150 MPH or more. We can expect to see a lot of fluctuation in wind speeds over the next few days because storms of this intensity sort of reorganize on the fly through a series of deteriorations and rebuildings of the eyewall of the storm.

The forecast track has been essentially unchanged since yesterday, with the cavaet that each computer model run seems to creep the path very slightly eastward...really almost inch by inch. Longer term, the storm will turn due North, and then turn NE. However, many of the models show another turn back to the north in a few days, which could bring the storm ashore anywhere from the Mid-Atlantic states to Cape Cod. Too far out to guess at that now, but if you live anywhere north of Georgia, I'd keep an eye on this storm.

Irene is currently in the SE Bahamas, about 400 miles SE of Nassau.

Tomorrow Irene will hit Nassau, Freeport, and the Northwestern Bahamas as a strong Category Four storm. A friend of mine told me that her husband's cruise ship evacuated all of the children from Freeport yesterday.

Unless there is a dramatic change, it does not appear the storm will have much impact on VB or WDW. Here in Miami, we're expecting a breezy day with 40% rain probability.

I will not be posting an update tomorrow because I'm going to be busy all day and night.

 

[dgaston]

Once again, thanks for your insights. Here in New England, my DH and I are now getting ready to celebrate our 40th wedding anniversary on Sunday with this new guest Irene!

 

[castleri]

Once again, thanks for your insights. Here in New England, my DH and I are now getting ready to celebrate our 40th wedding anniversary on Sunday with this new guest Irene!

Hopefully your guest will arrive leave a very small gift and leave quickly - Need to be on the plane out of ProvidenceTues morning headed to the Happiest Place on Earth. Hope you have a Happy 40th despite Irene