Hurricane Irene - Wed, 2 PM update, page 4, post 53

[JimMIA]

Irene did two important things last night -- she became a Category One Hurricane and she unexpectedly crossed over Puerto Rico. The storm is currently just off the north coast of Puerto Rico, with 75 MPH winds, and moving WNW at about 10 Kt.

It DOES look like Hurricane Irene will affect both Vero Beach and Orlando (much less effect in Orlando), and probably also HHI.

The current official forecase shows Irene moving along the north side of Hispaniola (Dominican Republic and Haiti) today and tomorrow. One critical factor for this storm is how much it interacts with the mountains on Hispaniola -- if it interacts a LOT, the storm should weaken, but if it doesn't interact much, the storm should strengthen. It appears very unlikely that this storm will just fall apart over Hispaniola because the storm center will be over water and only the weaker left side of the storm will be hitting the mountains. Also, as the storm moves further west, it will enter an area of very warm sea water, which will enable more strengthening.

The current official track predicts the storm will pass through the Bahamas and just offshore of Florida's lower East Coast. It predicts actual landfall a little North of Vero Beach very early FRIDAY morning as a Category Two storm. On that track, two of the models show the storm very close to major hurricane strength (Category Three). A Category Two storm would obviously have strong effects on VB and the Orlando area would probably have bad, but not horrible, weather. It's doubtful that Orlando would have hurricane force winds.

The official track shows the storm hugging the Florida East Coast and going ashore in Georgia on Sunday, still a Cat Two storm. Obviously, that would affect HHI, and a slight shift to the right could put HHI in the bullseye.

The thing that troubles us here in Miami is that one of the most reliable models takes the storm right over Miami and across the state to the Gulf Coast. That model shows the storm a little weaker, but still a solid Category One Hurricane. For now, we're going to be planning conservatively and will probably be putting up shutters later this week.

It's still too early to freak out, but this storm definitely bears watching if you're going to be anywhere in South or Central Florida this week.

 

[sweetdana]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents

I would say, it is not really to early to freak out..

I am sched to leave Thur AM for MCO. and DH is sched to arrive Frid night, (pretty much when it hits Daytona-ish.) ... I can assure you.. I am past, annoyed and into what do I do? shorten the trip? go anyway, play indoors for the 1st 2-3 days.. I have been through a hurricane in DW, when it was hitting Daytona-ish before. It is rainy/windy/ and an indoor/ really not a park day for sure, but still safe. Your umbrulla will flip inside out, but you will not blow away.

 

[JimMIA]

I agree it's not looking good right now. But there is such a divergence in two of the best models that it's not yet clear exactly where this is going. If you look at the "cone" shown on the NHC chart you posted, one of the models forms the left edge of the cone and the other forms the right. A deviation of just a few degrees over the next 48 hours could make a big difference in where the storm goes.

For people flying in, there are really two issues. One is what the storm does; the other is what your airline does. Airlines can't repo aircraft during a storm, so they often move them well ahead of the storm and that can make big changes in your flight schedules.

But right now, I'd say we're in a wait and see mood...and a little on the pessimistic side.

 

[dgaston]

Once again Jim, thanks for your expertise.

 

[JimMIA]

We have to also keep in mind that these forecast tracks are much more accurate at 1-3 days than they are at 4 or 5 days. At 4 days out, the average deviation from the forecast track is TWO HUNDRED miles; at 5 days, it's 250-300. If you move the center of this storm 100 miles east of the middle of the forecast track, we will hardly notice it going by in Florida.

 

[WolfpackFan]

Our local weather folks here (Raleigh, NC), say the models seem to be tracking more east each run and that by the weekend it might be skirting our coast. My problem is we're driving to HHI next Sunday. If it hits HHI like the forecast now shows, we probably won't be allowed on the island. If it keeps going east, like our weather folks say, we may be driving down to HHI in a hurricane or worst it could come over our house (like Fran did).

 

[VrBchJ]

Jim, thank you so much for your expertise and input. The Weather Channel is always so full of drama and your are always so full of common sense. I'd rather rely on you than them!

 

[paults]

good luck to anyone traveling at this time. Be safe and pay attention to the reports.

 

[RumpleMom]

Thank you JimMIA, your time and information is very much appreciated.

 

[mjc2003]

Thanks Jim. We are going to Orlando on Wed. early morning, so we'll be fine getting down there. My concern is getting and shut-in with two kids for a day and a half, but that's not the end of the world. It sounds as if Friday would be the only full day that's a "wash".

It could always be worse, right?

 

[cloudnut220]

Jim, thanks for the update.

I'm not asking this question to be flip, but because I honesty don't know--how bad can hurricanes be at WDW? I know hurricanes or tropical systems can be devastating inland (I live in Baltimore and we've had some pretty bad damage from storms) but can storms stay strong enough over Florida to hit WDW with their full force? Again, I'm really just curious.

Looks like the 11am update takes Irene even further off the coast.

 

[WolfpackFan]

Well just watched our local weather (WRAL - Raleigh, NC) and they are pretty concerned for us here. The weather person said that right now Irene is headed to make landfall around Myrtle Beach on Saturday and then tracking across NC. Not what I wanted to hear at all.

 

[thepops]

Be glad you aren't cruising! Storms like this must make for a VERY exciting ride.

 

[hakepb]

Jim, thanks for the update.

I'm not asking this question to be flip, but because I honesty don't know--how bad can hurricanes be at WDW? I know hurricanes or tropical systems can be devastating inland (I live in Baltimore and we've had some pretty bad damage from storms) but can storms stay strong enough over Florida to hit WDW with their full force? Again, I'm really just curious.

Looks like the 11am update takes Irene even further off the coast.

I think WDW was hit with Charley in 04. For years there were a bunch of "leaning" trees to see as you drove around.
Usually a storm "eye" is smaller than Orlando's distance to the water, so most do not make it as "hurricane force", but it can happen.

I think WDW resorts are designed well enough, so the main concern is CM's homes vs WDW damage.

 

[DizDays]

Jim, thanks for being here and serving us so well by being the voice of information and reason. I appreciate all you do for the DISBoards. I hope I won't have anything to watch in mid-September, but you can bet I'll be looking for your wise words if there is something out there! Thanks!

 

[DMKEDM]

Hi, Jim--thanks for the expert input!

Are you willing to put on your "predictor's cap" and advise me on what to expect? I'm flying out of Washington, DC at 10 a.m. Sat morning (to MCO/WDW)...looks to me like under most scenarios we'll have to fly over or around or through at least the edges of Irene???

Should I plan on being delayed???

Thanks!
Dani

 

[JimMIA]

I'm going to post a more detailed update this evening, but like most hurricane things, there is good news - bad news.

The bad news is that as I suspected it might, this storm is going to develop into a Major hurricane. Irene is currently a Cat One storm with sustained winde of 80 MPH. It is expected to intensify to a Category Two storm by Tuesday night, and to Category Three Thursday morning.

The good news, however, is hopeful. As WolfpackFan mentioned, the computer models have been moving slightly to the right (east) for several days. The bulk of the models are actually somewhat east of the center of the forcast track, and if the one outlier moves east (which I think it will after determined resistance), the projected path should move away from Florida's east coast.

It's still too early to call that yet, and I really think we're going to have to wait until tomorrow, but hopefully we're going to see this storm shift away from us.

 

[CBork1]

Thanks Jim...As with others, we are very concerned about Irene! We are scheduled to fly out of Baltimore at 8AM Saturday morning for a great 9-day stay at the Beach Club. But i am concerned for delays and cancellations. Lets hope Irene takes it easy on the East Coast!!

 

[cloudnut220]

Thanks Jim...As with others, we are very concerned about Irene! We are scheduled to fly out of Baltimore at 8AM Saturday morning for a great 9-day stay at the Beach Club. But i am concerned for delays and cancellations. Lets hope Irene takes it easy on the East Coast!!

I would plan on a delay, since they're calling for a deluge in Baltimore already. 5+ inches of rain must slow the airport down somewhat, not to mention how bad traffic will be getting in an out. I'm not sure how you get there, but the tunnels/bridges around Baltimore can sometimes get shut down in heavy rain/wind events.

 

[Barbydoll8]

I live on the west coast of FL and am watching the storm track too. As of right now, it really looks like it will be a SC event and a non-issue for FL. There is a front in the north currently moving towards the track of the storm which will push it away from FL. Orlando might get a little wind and rain on Friday but that's about it.

The track was much closer to FL this morning and unless that front doesn't make it, it looks like it will really be a non-event for FL this time.