Hurricane Igor - NO threat

[JimMIA]

Hurricane Igor has developed very quickly to Category Four strength, with sustained winds of 140 MPH...so brace yourselves for a lot of breathless cable news coverage.

Actually though, although it is too early to really tell, not one computer model run shows the storm making landfall in North America.

However, any storm of this intensity should be watched.

I'm not going to do daily updates on this storm, because it's WAY out at sea. For accurate info without the Viagra-selling hype, go to either www.nhc.noaa.gov (The National Hurricane Center) or Weather Underground's excellent site at www.wunderground.com/tropical

 

[ScrappinGran]

Thanks, JimMIA, for sharing your knowledge with the worriers if the
world, like me! We arrive this Friday, and all I'm seeing on tv is hype
like Triple Threat, etc. I see 2 other storms behind Igor, should I be
worried? I don't mind the afternoon thunderstorm, but really would like storm free 10 days! Greedy, I know!

 

[Danboy8315]

Thanks for the update JimMIA...

I have the same question that ScrappinGran has... Should we worry about the other storms, particularly TD12... I arrive on the 21st and i'm staying through the 30th so i'm really hoping it doest effect me!!!

Thanks!!

 

[bookwormde]

Thanks JimMIA,
And yes everyone on the east coast should check to make sure it is actually turning to the north every day or 2. As a mid Atlantic resident (and emergency service provider) it is very disconcerting that these extremely powerful storms are popping up with such frequency this year, since while the percentage that make landfall at high strength is very low, the more that are generated the sooner we will get unlucky.

Here to hoping everything goes north and into the colder waters, and have an emergency plan and supplies in place now, even though the probability is low.

bookwormde

 

[NewDCLGuy]

If I lived in Bermuda, and saw the latest storm track predictions, i'm not sure I'd agree with your title.

But Miami and WDW look safe.

 

[JimMIA]

Should we worry about the other storms, particularly TD12...

NO. TD 12 is now Hurricane Julia. Julia is still WAY, WAY off, but it does not look like she will come anywhere near the US.

At this point, Atlantic storms are no threat to your vacation. Even if a storm developed, it would not have time to come all the way across the Atlantic before you leave WDW.

If something popped up in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico, that could be a concern, but we're still a little bit early in the season for a significant Caribbean/Gulf storm.

 

[JimMIA]

it is very disconcerting that these extremely powerful storms are popping up with such frequency this year, since while the percentage that make landfall at high strength is very low, the more that are generated the sooner we will get unlucky.

You're right. The level of activity is actually pretty normal for this time of the year -- you may remember a few years ago, we had five storms lined up from the West Coast of Africa to the Caribbean. It looked like a hurricane parade across the Atlantic on the satellite pictures!

But I've noted two big differences this year. One is that we have had a run of major storms (Cat 3 or higher). Thankfully, we've dodged them all. The other difference is those storms have been getting to Cat 3 before most storm systems usually become tropical storms (if you look at where Hurricane Julia is, systems are usually nothing more than a wave at that location in the Atlantic) and they stay very strong much farther north than normal. From the surface water temperature maps, it looks like there is a lot of very warm water in the mid-Atlantic and that warm water extends all the way to the mid-Atlantic states in the US, or possibly even further north. That's unusual and is probably the reason for the more frequent and durable major storms.

In a few weeks, the weather will change and systems coming off Africa will stop and other systems will begin to develop in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico. Although those storms can and have come across Florida and impacted WDW and VB, their normal pattern is to go north to the upper Gulf Coast.