Hurricane Frances

[CPM]

Originally posted by MScott1851
You know, I ended up buying trip insurance today because of all the bad weather Florida and the Bahamas are getting.

I hope I don't have to use it, but I am glad I have it...

I'm surprised you could still get it. I wonder if I still could for my cruise. How does that work?

 

[John VN]

We are to head to FW this weekend for DW's BD and to help DD and family repair damage from Charley.

Being INLAND has nothing to do with being SAFE if Frances is a CAT. 4 when it hits. Just look at damage done by Charley on his treck through Fl.

Just as a side note, I have a print out of the possible tract of Charley that is dated Aug. 11th and it was only a FEW MILES OFF the entire path he wound up taking even though they were still saying that TAMPA was going to be hit, up to the point where Charley took that jog to the east.

True, Frances is still way out there, but our DD who is expecting in 2 weeks already has arrangements made to head NORTH if the path of Frances continues as is now being shown.

We are watching very closely, again.

Trip insurance sounds like a good idea right now.

John

 

[kingbilly]

Folks this is looking bad - Vero Beach and Orlando on the path O M G

 

[lvs_eeyore]

See now its happening again. Everyone is focusing on a point in the map that it says it might hit. We learned from Charley that the point in the map does not make any difference. EVERYONE in that cone of error MUST prepare. Just because it shows Vero as the landfall area that doesnt mean it WILL hit there. It could go North or South of that point. Its ONLY a point of reference right now. We wont know a truer projected path for a few days now and even then you really cant rely on whats projected. We learned that from Charley. Everyone focused on the fact that Charley was supposed to hit Tampa. It didn't, people in the other areas didn't prepare as well or get out as they should have and people were hurt and died because of it. I guess I just fear it will happen again.

 

[legs22]

Originally posted by lvs_eeyore
See now its happening again. Everyone is focusing on a point in the map that it says it might hit. We learned from Charley that the point in the map does not make any difference. EVERYONE in that cone of error MUST prepare. Just because it shows Vero as the landfall area that doesnt mean it WILL hit there. It could go North or South of that point. Its ONLY a point of reference right now. We wont know a truer projected path for a few days now and even then you really cant rely on whats projected. We learned that from Charley. Everyone focused on the fact that Charley was supposed to hit Tampa. It didn't, people in the other areas didn't prepare as well or get out as they should have and people were hurt and died because of it. I guess I just fear it will happen again.

Not here. I am thinking it could possibly go a little further south than predicited and then it would hit me
I am very nervous about this storm since I am alone. I am still trying to get a huge tree trimmed outside my bedroom and get coverings for my windows.

 

[JoNo]

hmmmmm, looks like okeechobee might be taking a bigger hit this goaround... I'll keep everyone posted

 

[John VN]

Ivs_eeyore

Too many references to Tampa are being made.

YES, these are only predictions and we do not know until it is actually there, however, as I mentioned I have the PRINT OUT that predicted that Charley could take a certain path 2 days before and indeed he did so and almost to the letter.

Too many factors involved with the HIGH PRESSURE and the LOW PRESSURE systems that will control the movement of Frances, but it is better to be safe than sorry.

What I feel regarding this particular storm is that we are within that cone of strike and I am taking it very seriously.

legs22

AGREE with you. IF the high pressure does not move enough, we could again be in the center of the bulls eye.

John

 

[MScott1851]

I went to www.insuremytrip.com. I was confused about this whole trip insurance thing, I've never purchased it before. But everyone kept telling me it's a must-have for a cruise, especially if we get sick or hurt. With my luck, I would fall and break a leg as soon as I left the US and my BCBS coverage. You enter your dates and the amount you spent, and they offer at least 10 choices. I only insured the part of the trip that I couldn't cancel (i.e the cruise, the airline tickets, the priceline hotel) and my premium was $67.93. I got a decent package, too. I could have spent up to $180, but the coverage wasn't any better. I didn't insure the Universal hotel stay post-cruise, because if we missed the cruise, I would still be 6 days out and could cancel without penalty.

We are flying in three days before, so I wasn't worried about getting to port late. If worse came to worst, we could have driven from Memphis to Orlando in 3 days.

 

[kingbilly]

Computer Model Hurricane Forecasts

 

[stacilee]

We are near Charleston SC and some models are showing the storm hooking NE. I was in our local Walmart and Home Depot last night. The whole front of the HD store was hurricane prep. supplies and Walmart was out of batteries.
DH said while the kids are in school today you'd better get the supplies in, just in case.
No one here will ever forget HUGO and the devastation it wreaked on our state. They speak of it like it was yesterday. I guess I'd better be ready for this one.

 

[lulu71]

This storm is really stressing me out!! See counter below---I don't think so!!! I wonder what the VB resort will do?

 

[maroney495]

DS lives in Jupiter and called this weekend and said I may have guests later this week. They do not intend to "ride" it out. He says if it looks like they are in for a hit he is hitting the road and will just come to Arkansas to be clear. Suits me fine, I haven't seen them since May. I could use a visit from the Grandkids and their parents.

 

[Feralpeg]

I may be crazy, but I decided I didn't want to sit at home with DD through this one. I booked a room for Friday, Saturday and Sunday at the AKL. I just think I will feel better being in a larger structure with other people around. I know that it might hit someplace other than Orlando. If it does go elsewhere, I will have a nice little vacation at AKL. If it does hit here, I will just feel better. I've made arrangements to board my animals. They will be just as safe at the vets as in my home. The vet will sedate the dog. He gets very scared in storms. I think it will actually be better for them because they pick up on our feelings and I am sure we would be very nervous. I thought about finding a hotel outside of Orlando, but I had no idea where to go that might not be its path. I must not be the only one. The only rooms left were savanah view conceirge.

 

[treesinger]

I'm also caught in a quandry. I have to make my decision in a couple hours. A bonus week through RCI for Club Sevilla. We have to buy it today because of time constraints. We can only hold the resort for a few more hours before it goes back into the pool, and we MUST check in on Saturday. Which means we have to ask fast. But I'm worried that we'll check in to the resort, get flooded out or have the roof blown off our resort. Not cool. But I have next week off, so it has to be this coming week or not at all. I love Disney, but I don't want to die there!

Any advice?

Oh yeah, we'd be driving from Delaware overnight Fri into Sat to get there.

 

[LindaG4458]

We're sitting in NH; our condo is in Vero Beach. At least it's on the mainland and not the barrier island. It will be hard to know for sure where landfall will be - we're just hoping that Francis turns northeast and spares the FL east coast. Last time they predicted a hurricane to come ashore in VB a few years ago it missed totally.

Our first floor unit should be OK because of concrete block construction, but the second floor units have wooden roof supports and cathedral ceilings. If the roof goes we might get some damage from above.

If it does hit VB we will probably be heading down earlier than our planned 10/1 departure. Glad I just paid the flood insurance last week!

Gotta watch that weather channel......

 

[kingbilly]

Hurricane Frances is on a path that could put it near Florida on Saturday, according to computer projections this morning.

The 5 p.m. EDT update from theNational Hurricane Center computer run shows bad news for Brevard County. The projected path has shifted south, with a possible landfall near Cape Canaveral or News Smyrna Beach on Saturday afternoon.

Earlier predictions today had the storm off Jacksonville and near Orlando on Sunday.

Forecasters pointed out that computer models of more than 72 hours out can have errors of several hundred miles.

In the 5 p.m. advisory, the hurricane center said Frances' sustained winds were 140 mph, making it a dangerous Category 4 storm.

The fresh computer run shows the center of Frances near Grand Bahama Island on Friday afternoon and just northwest of Cape Cavanveral on Saturday at 2 p.m..

 

[SplshMtn99]

Mother-in-law lives in New Smyrna Beach on Bouchelle Island. First floor condo on the water.

It's time to find out where she'll be evacuating to. She was evactuated for Charley....and went to her boyfriends in Edgewater. But he's on the water too....so I don't think either of them will be there.

Hope Frances GOES AWAY!!!!

 

[California Dreamin]

Hello Everyone,

First, thank you for the kind welcome from all of you.

FYI -- I called WDW Reservations and they gave me the following info about cancellations: the standard cancellation policy is if you cancel within 5 days of your arrival, you have to pay a $200 cancellation fee and a couple of other $10 administrative fees. If you bought a package and paid for the travel insurance they offer, and if Disney declares that they are shutting down due to the hurricane, then you can fill out a reimbursement form from the insurance company and be reimbursed for the unused portion of your trip. I asked the CM if, say, I was scheduled to arrive on Sunday (which I am), and due to the hurricane, could not arrive until Tuesday, would I be reimbursed for those two days (room and Parkhopper pass) and she said yes.

If anyone has had conversations with CMs about WDW's cancellation policy, I'd love to hear about it, to make sure that we all are getting told the same info.

What was a little unclear was how or when Disney would make some kind of official designation that would allow guests to get reimbursed.

The latest tracks do not look good, but I am comforted by the knowledge that estimated hurricane tracks that are 4 days out have been off by as much as 250 nautical miles.

So, I guess my strategy is this: I'm going to wait until Saturday and then decide whether or not I cancel. If I do, since I live in Southern California, luckily I have other options, like driving up the coast or going wine tasting. I might even be able to get a last minute cheap fare to Hawaii. But I'd much rather go to WDW for the trip that I have planned for months.

Boy oh boy, I sure hope that Frances heads north out to sea!

Bob

 

[JimB.]

*** Sigh ***


I am SO hoping this thing goes, well heck, not to sound self - centered, but anywhere but here.

I'm off from work tomorrow & thursday, & I guess I'll button the house up then.

I'm working friday, & if this storm proceeds like the tracks are indicating, I probably will not get to go home saturday morning, & my DW & kids will have to ride it out at home by themselves.

Bad Frances.

Go Away.

 

[Luv2Roam]

I know many at work are already saying they are not riding this one out like they did Charley.
You have to consider most homes have not even been repaired yet from the last bout with Charley. This is what will hurt many people, no matter what amount of rain we receive.
I had many supplies from last time, as we were not affected. But the grocery store sure was busy....
And Home Depots seem to be a hot spot allll over again.

For those who make it into WDW and stay on site -- I would feel as secure there more than most places.