Hurricane DEAN

[JimMIA]

For those headed to WDW next week, you might want to keep an eye on Tropical Depression #4, which formed earlier today in the Eastern Atlantic.

TD #4 is projected to move steadily westward, becoming a Tropical Storm tonight, a Category One Hurricane on Friday as it approaches the Windward Islands, and a Category Two on Saturday as it nears Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.

It is much too early to accurately predict where the storm will go, but that's the track right now. Current computer models show the storm passing south of Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico, but those models don't mean a thing this far out.

For accurate information without the hype, go to the National Hurricane Center's website: www.nhc.noaa.gov

 

[Snookies]

Another good source of tropical weather information, particularly for anyone who wants to see the results of model track predictions, is Dr. Jeff Masters' blog which is available at
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=746&tstamp=200708

 

[JimMIA]

Another good source of tropical weather information, particularly for anyone who wants to see the results of model track predictions, is Dr. Jeff Masters' blog which is available at
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=746&tstamp=200708

Yes, Weather Underground is usually pretty good, and they don't hyperventilate as much as the cable news folks. Most of their info is directly from the NHC advisories and discussions on the NHC site linked above.

Weather Underground also has the computer models available, but you have to know what you're looking at, and you have to have a very healthy disrespect for the accuracy of them past about three days out. At five days, even the official forcast track has an error factor of about 350 miles.

 

[edk35]

OH NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO. We leave Wed. for 8 nights. I HOPE THIS DOES NOT MATERIALIZE. UGH

 

[Mtnman44]

Mother Nature better get a move on with the hurricanes this year, otherwise Al Gore and company are going to look pretty silly...ok, even more silly.

 

[dvcnewgirl]

Mother Nature better get a move on with the hurricanes this year, otherwise Al Gore and company are going to look pretty silly...ok, even more silly.

 

[JimMIA]

Not really very much going on this morning with TD #4, which is normal for a new storm. The projections have slowed the system down somewhat and the forecast track has been moved slightly to the right, but the track will probably wander all over the place for the next few days.

It will probably be Friday or Saturday before we have a good idea where this system is going.

The system did not intensify into a tropical storm last night as predicted. However, for the longer term, the computer intensity models show a stronger storm than they were showing yesterday.

Anyone planning to be in WDW NEXT week should monitor the system. If you're there, or are going later this week, you're fine.

 

[edk35]

Not really very much going on this morning with TD #4, which is normal for a new storm. The projections have slowed the system down somewhat and the forecast track has been moved slightly to the right, but the track will probably wander all over the place for the next few days.

It will probably be Friday or Saturday before we have a good idea where this system is going.

The system did not intensify into a tropical storm last night as predicted. However, for the longer term, the computer intensity models show a stronger storm than they were showing yesterday.

Anyone planning to be in WDW NEXT week should monitor the system. If you're there, or are going later this week, you're fine.

Thanks for the updates.....we leave tomorrow morning and return next Thursday evening. I hope we get there and back with no problems and that this thing fizzles out so no one has to deal with a nasty hurricane no matter where they live in this world.

 

[TEK224]

Not what I wanted to hear! I leave next Saturday (Aug. 25).

Not too worried about what happens WHEN I get there, I just want to GET there.

 

[momeees]

Being a weather fanatic myself, I have been tracking this storm, too. My husband (ironically, his name is DEAN, like the impending hurricane) and three daughters are due to fly in to MCO on Tuesday, 8/21 for eight days at the GF.

I am of the same opinion, I just want to GET there!!!

Kim

 

[Jynohn]

We're due to arrive on the 21st too, and this is the first I've heard of this storm. We usually go in January, so I'm used to worrying about snow storms interrupting our travel, not hurricanes! Guess I'll be monitoring the weather closely this week.

 

[Snookies]

...Weather Underground also has the computer models available, but you have to know what you're looking at, and you have to have a very healthy disrespect for the accuracy of them past about three days out. At five days, even the official forcast track has an error factor of about 350 miles.

These are all good points Jim. In addition, model results can vary considerably from run to run. For example, one model predicted landfall of TD4 at Brownsville in its initial run. The next run of the same model predicted landfall in New England. As you pointed out, forecast track prediction is unreliable after 3 days, and can even vary considerably inside 3 days. The NHC official forecast track represents a synthesis of forecasts from a number of different models, adjusted by the forecasters' subjective judgements. Intensity forecast is even more problematic than track forecast.

 

[RichieGraciemom]

Not really very much going on this morning with TD #4, which is normal for a new storm. The projections have slowed the system down somewhat and the forecast track has been moved slightly to the right, but the track will probably wander all over the place for the next few days.

It will probably be Friday or Saturday before we have a good idea where this system is going.

The system did not intensify into a tropical storm last night as predicted. However, for the longer term, the computer intensity models show a stronger storm than they were showing yesterday.

Anyone planning to be in WDW NEXT week should monitor the system. If you're there, or are going later this week, you're fine.

headed to cocoa beach next thursday the 23rd, will be watching where it will go, and then disney on the 26th(not worried about that part of the trip) will go to a different beach depending if and what side of Florida it might hit. good luck everyone, and dont get to nervous yet, just watchful.

 

[JimMIA]

Well, as of the 11 AM advisory, it's now Tropical Storm Dean. Dean is now expected to reach hurricane strength Friday morning.

The projected track has moved very slightly to the left (south) from the 8 AM advisory, but that's going to be happening with every advisory for several days. We just have to ignore the wiggles and see where the big picture takes the storm 4-5 days from now.

 

[CarnotaurDad]

We are scheduled to fly out on 8/21 as well. Crossing our fingers that it stays away.

 

[RLRDA]

We fly out of Providence the morning of 8/18. Looking at the seven day forcast for here and Orlando....it looks like we'll be OK arriving there. Brings back memories of last August when my family was in Orlando and "Ernesto" blew through. Our return flight home (SWA) was cancelled so we rebooked without penalty and caught the last (or 1 of the last) flights out of MCO before the entire airport shut down for the rest of that day. It felt good to get home. I seem to remember Ernesto stalled over the Carolinas? after that. Was that the same storm?

 

[ducklite]

Here's a great site: http://flhurricane.com/

These guys are usually pretty accurate with their predictions, and definitely not hype.

For right now it's definitely business as usually in central Florida.

My guess is that if we're going to see anything more than some rain out of this, it will happen next Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday, or some combination of them.

Anne

 

[Cruiser1969]

Not to make light of this situation at all, but when I first saw this post, I thought it was tongue in cheek. I thought it was a clever way to announce Dean's vacation plans. . . . you know, Dean, the knowledgeable poster who always answers questions for those interested in trading out to Hawaii, Caribbean, Mexico, etc. I thought Dean was heading out for a DVC vacation and this was his path and timeline to get to Florida.Unfortunately, this is not the case


Pixie Dust to all those travelling soon!! We had a tropical depression lurking on the coast during our vacation. I know how stressful it can be keeping an eye on the weather prior to and during a vacation!!!

 

[JimMIA]

Not to make light of this situation at all, but when I first saw this post, I thought it was toungue in cheek. I thought it was a clever way to announce Dean's vacation plans. . . . you know, Dean, the knowledgeable poster who always answers questions for those interested in trading out to Hawaii, Caribbean, Mexico, etc. I thought Dean was heading out for a DVC vacation and this was his path and timeline to get to Florida.Unfortunately, this is not the case


Pixie Dust to all those travelling soon!! We had a tropical depression lurking on the coast during our vacation. I know how stressful it can be keeping an eye on the weather prior to and during a vacation!!!

That occurred to me too, when I changed the title to reflect the naming of the system.

I do, however, understand that the NHC actually named this storm in honor of Dean, as a tribute to his many great contributions here. I saw that on the Rumor board, so it must be true!

 

[Mtnman44]

The monorail driver did mention that he heard that Hurrican Dean will hit smack on the new CRV tower.