How many DVC resorts?

[arthur06]

I know that there are 7 resorts at WDW, one at Vero Beach, one at Hilton Head. Also, there is Grand Californian under construction and Hawaii with recent groundbreaking. Which makes for 11. There is talk about future expansion and some possible destinations being mentioned. My question is not to where the future destinations lie, but rather how many there will be? I am planning to buy within the next 12 months or so, hopefully less, what is a realistic expectation for how many resorts there will be 15 years from now? Is 12, 13, or even 14 or 15 a realistic goal? Also, would Disney sever ties with Vero at the end of that commitment? Any guesses?

 

[tjkraz]

That's crystal ball material.

I think Disney is very interested in growing the off-site destinations. They want to present a program that is more than just theme park locations.

However the big question is how successful it will be. Vero was the 2nd or 3rd DVC resort, yet it took 10 years to sell-out. And that was after Disney cut its development plan in half. So the Hawaii project is still being viewed with much skepticism by long-time members. Granted you can't really compare Vero Beach FL with Oahu, HI. We'll see.

I think Lake Tahoe is a natural destination for Disney and could be the next off-site. But it could be a few years before that happens.

IMO, Disney is wise to continue its current projects even with the economy in its current state. (Many thought Hawaii would be delayed but that doesn't appear to be the case.) But adding even more destinations seems unlikely at this time.

In no particular order, here are some of the projects that could happen in the next decade:

* Second DVC Contemporary Tower replacing the South Garden Wing
* Convert some Grand Floridian buildings to DVC
* Another resort at Disneyland
* Lake Tahoe
* Stand-alone DVC at WDW

Looking 15 years from now is practically impossible. But here's how I think things will evolve over the next 5 years or so.

The AKV and BLT points they are selling now will probably meet demand for a theme park destination into 2011. Grand Californian is so small that it will probably sell-out in a few months time. That leaves Hawaii points coming on-line around 2011.

If Disney wants to have a theme-park destination available for sales at all times, they probably need to start on something in the next 12-18 months. (Personally I'm guessing the next WDW project will be a second Contemporary Tower.) Or if they would be content to just sell Hawaii points once AKV and BLT are gone, they could probably push it back another year.