It's all a gamble! Once you are positive about your dates, start watching for fares. If you see one that is reasonable and the flights you want, I would take it and get it over with. We are going next month and I saw the flights we wanted last fall for $205. I thought they would go down, we paid $168 in December. So I waited. Those flights skyrocketed to $750! I checked it everyday and it bounced between $750 and $310. I was kicking myself for not booking it last fall. Then one night in February, it dropped to $183 (have no idea why). I grabbed it! I may have saved $22 x 2, but it wasn't worth the aggravation of checking it everyday.