How accurate are the crowd calendars that websites have?

[Phillip Williams]

Just wondering if I show use these things or just do my own thing.

 

[Doug S]

I think they're all fairly accurate in the bigger picture. For the most part they're usually the same. Touring Plans is a little more aggressive because they got scolded for being way under last fall.

Daily park recommendations usually don't matter much. It's just common knowledge stuff: MK is less busy on party days, the park with morning EMH should be avoided, etc.

 

[LSUfan4444]

Ignore them completely.

Sincerely,
Those who follow them


Seriously though whats more important is knowing the thought process behind crowd predictions. What events are being offered, what other special activities are going on in what parks on what days, who/where has EMH, etc.

Knowing those things can tell you what parks to hit and more importantly, what parks to avoid and when to avoid them (if the lowest crowds is your priority). Lastly, don't get caught in the mindset of "The overall crowd prediction is only 4/10 so it won't matter that much what crowd I pick." Its more probably MORE important during slower times to pick the best parks than busier times. During Christmas, Eatser, etc it's busy everywhere but when you're there in September or say March the difference between a recommended and non recommended park could be significant.

 

[CAS239]

50/50.

Don't rely on them too much

 

[johnnydakota]

I'm planning for my August trip. It's mixed results, to be honest.

I've got Kenny the Pirate, Undercover Tourist, and WDW Prep School's crowd calendars for my dates.

For our first day, one calendar says that Hollywood Studios is the one park to avoid, but the other two say HS is either the best or one of the better ones.

So who knows.

 

[NJ Goofy]

I use them as a guide but if we want to do a park a certain day we do it no matter what the plans say. As the PP noted most times they don't even agree with each other. We use our experience as our guide, i.e. no DS or EPCOT (during F&W) on Friday or Saturday nights, don't go to MK on Saturday, etc.

 

[ChasingLeslie]

I know last summer was sort of fluke-y, but we went right after the 4th of July and had the lightest crowds I'd even seen for the first 3-4 days. I used both Kenny's and Josh's calendars.

 

[revdon64]

A few years ago the one that I use all the time was dead on. Now, they all seem to be something of a crapshoot. I think it's probably best to just pick one and go with it. The general guidelines of getting there early, mid-day breaks and hopping in the evening seem o be effective no matter what your chosen calendar/predictor says.

 

[mbrown2097]

Not accurate. (IMO) Ignore them.

 

[Klayfish]

50/50.

I didn't even know there was such a thing as crowd calendars before I found DISboards, so in all of our trips we didn't even know it existed. So for last summers trip, we didn't use it whatsoever to make our plans (we don't worry about crowd levels, doesn't matter to us) out of curiosity I spent several days comparing our subjective opinion on crowds to what the "predictions" were. I also found it to be about 50/50. Well, that's about the same odds as flipping a coin, so that's about the value I see it having. Which is to say, none.

There are some generalizations you can count on...holidays are busier, weekends are busier, storms will drive some people away, etc...but to accurately predict what a crowd will be on a random Thursday in October...sorry, I don't see how.

 

[yulilin3]

I have never used them but I'm a local, have been visiting the parks for 18 years on a very regular basis, so when friends come to visit I tell them to expect crowds and I know to:
Avoid MK on Saturdays and Mondays
Avoid parks in the morning that have morning EMH if they are not staying on site (noot a deal breaker just common sense)
Schedule indoor rides/shows during the middle of the day
Try and eat at off times to avoid the lunch and dinner crowds
That's about it.

 

[loves to dive]

Never look at them, I don't even use the conventional wisdom of avoiding EMHs and Saturdays and Mondays, etc. We just go where we are in the mood to go. We do always have park hoppers so if a park is too crowded we just move on. We also go often so if we don't ride a ride or see a show, it's not the end of the world.

 

[cmorris303]

I don't build my trip around them. Instead I loosely plan out my trip and usually have at least a couple different options for each day. Then I check the calendars to kind of help me finalize my plan.

 

[Cinderella94]

I don't really understand them - it seems like it's all relative to me. My 6 could be your 10. Maybe I'm not understanding what they do correctly. But we never pay any attention to them. But, our best Disney friends check multiple different ones before every trip, so YMMV.

 

[Tigger1965]

A few years ago the one that I use all the time was dead on. Now, they all seem to be something of a crapshoot. I think it's probably best to just pick one and go with it. The general guidelines of getting there early, mid-day breaks and hopping in the evening seem o be effective no matter what your chosen calendar/predictor says.

Why would you hop in the evening?

 

[DrummerBoy523]

but to accurately predict what a crowd will be on a random Thursday in October...sorry, I don't see how.

Sounds to me like you should read up on how TouringPlans comes up with their numbers. You'll be amazed.

 

[revdon64]

Why would you hop in the evening?

To take advantage of parks with evening extra magic hours... if you're staying on site of course.

 

[4HOLIDAYS]

I still look at them all. habit of many years. I follow what yulilin3 said...no mk sat or mon, avoid am emh parks if you are not going for the emh, then then hop if you do, night emh parks if they are late-start at 11+, the day following an emh day is usually lighter... I think with Pandora area at MK opening , I would avoid that on the weekends for the summer.

I like touringplans, I ck the times when we are at the park, their estimates for crowds are sometimes off but not horribly. I find the ride times, estimates accurate. I ck Kenny and easy when they were still posting.

 

[kennythepirate]

I still look at them all. habit of many years. I follow what yulilin3 said...no mk sat or mon, avoid am emh parks if you are not going for the emh, then then hop if you do, night emh parks if they are late-start at 11+, the day following an emh day is usually lighter... I think with Pandora area at MK opening , I would avoid that on the weekends for the summer.

I like touringplans, I ck the times when we are at the park, their estimates for crowds are sometimes off but not horribly. I find the ride times, estimates accurate. I ck Kenny and easy when they were still posting.

I do still post every month

 

[SaintsManiac]

I use KtP's, but if we really want to go to a particular park we go regardless of what the calendars say.