Home Resort Priority Necessary for January Travel?

[mrsfenskie]

Hi all!

We are currently waiting on ROFR for a WL contract, and I am fairly certain it will be taken. In the case that it is, we will be searching for another contract ASAP. However, the resale inventory is dwindling right now, and I'm not sure that we will find another WL contract anytime soon. We are looking to use our DVC membership to travel in January- during no particular week. Is home Resort priority really necessary in the off-season? For example, if we were to find a SSR or AKV contract that worked for us, would we have good odds of being able to book WL or elsewhere for our January trips? Thanks in advance for your advice!

 

[_auroraborealis_]

These are snapshots from (mostly) 2015, for studios: https://www.disboards.com/threads/p...-some-1-bedrooms-vgc-update-10-21-15.3419112/

2BR lockoffs will follow the pattern of studios.

With more points being sold (now at CCV), there are more points in the system and more competition at 7 months than ever before. Travel after MLK Day is likely to have better chances, but at small resorts like VGF, BCV and even BWV you may find yourself rolling waitlist. I think VWL/BRV is hard to predict what occurs now that CCV is on sale; while the two resorts have different home resort windows, VWL sleeps more in its studios and 1BR units. So I wouldn't look at a 2015 pattern and think it predicts anything in 2018+ for that resort.

 

[mrsfenskie]

These are snapshots from (mostly) 2015, for studios: https://www.disboards.com/threads/p...-some-1-bedrooms-vgc-update-10-21-15.3419112/

2BR lockoffs will follow the pattern of studios.

With more points being sold (now at CCV), there are more points in the system and more competition at 7 months than ever before. Travel after MLK Day is likely to have better chances, but at small resorts like VGF, BCV and even BWV you may find yourself rolling waitlist. I think VWL/BRV is hard to predict what occurs now that CCV is on sale; while the two resorts have different home resort windows, VWL sleeps more in its studios and 1BR units. So I wouldn't look at a 2015 pattern and think it predicts anything in 2018+ for that resort.

Thanks for the helpful response!!

 

[disneynutz]

IMO don't plan for an off season. Disney has changed and will continue to change increasing attendance all year long.

Bill

 

[zavandor]

I often travel during slow DVC times: September and January and (a part from the Marathon week in Janauary and last week of September), both months I can get most resorts except a few exceptions: value and standard accommodations everywhere, VGF, AKV concierge, but even those sometimes are available or possible with a waitlist. And I book studios, if you look for a 1BR, you will have even more availability.

So I'd say: buy a cheap contract, that's what I did.
However it is not sure it will remain this way. This year Disney created the Festival of the arts in Epcot and it starts mid January. It was a great event and reviews are all very good. What if people enjoy it and start booking week ends in January? Will it affect VWL? I don't think so, but you never know. Buying a cheaper resort to switch at 7 months will always be a bit of a gamble. If you really want to stay at VWL and would be very disappointed if you cannot, then buy there.

 

[CarolMN]

It's said that past results is no guarantee of the future. It's also said that past behavior is the best predictor of future behavior. Go figure!

My opinion regarding the WDW DVC resorts:

Other than the time around the Marathon, and excluding the less expensive booking categories for the near park resorts, January has traditionally been one of the easiest times to book at 7 months. I do not see this changing for the foreseeable future.

IMO, the addition of CCV will make 7 month booking in general a little easier - at least for a while, as many will want to try it out. This will open up some of the other popular resorts for 7 month reservations. The pool of "cheaper points" chasing the near-park resorts at 7 months will not grow larger in the near future & CCV will draw some of the 7 month demand for VGF, BLT, Poly, BWV & BCV. Again IMO, this will be especially true during the CCV sales periods in which there will be more declared points than owners at CCV.

 

[drusba]

VWL (now known as BRV) for early January to the Sunday of marathon weekend is usually booked before 7 months out. For the past four years, it has been open at 7 months out for the Monday after marathon weekend through the end of the month, and that includes MLK weekend. In fact, on July 5, well beyond the 7 month window for any dates in January, VWL has been open for the Monday after marathon weekend through Jan 31 for each of the last four years.

The main issue that might change things sometime in the future is what may happen once the new CCV resort at WL approaches sell-out. That resort will be selling a huge number of points applicable to cabins, grand villas, and 2BRs to purchasers who will be buying just enough points to get studios. But CCV is going to have only a fairly small number of studios. That might result in a large population of CCV owners seeking studios at VWL at 7 months out during the year because they fail to get studios at CCV during the 11 month window, and thus the demand for studios at VWL at 7 months out could significantly increase, meaning they may be fully booked a lot faster than they are booked now for January.

 

[jerseyduke]

I would not buy a contract at a different resort to satisfy a desire for January of 1 year. If you want to stay (for the most part) at BRV then buy there. If next January is important, then rent points to make the reservation, then rent out points when you get your contract, to pay for the majority of the rental cost.

As Bill said, Disney changes. One constant is they do not want a SLOW season. Some seasons will be slower, of course, but slow is becoming history. Perfect example is the Festival of the Arts that debuted this year. If that was successful, then that will not be weekends only in the future.

Also, you might change. Since becoming a DVC Member, I spend more time at the resort than I used to. Prior to DVC, i never went to the pools...it was parks, parks, parks. Now, that is different.

I firmly believe in the "buy where you want to stay" philosophy, or at the very least "buy where you would not mind staying". If you would be happy at SSR or AKV 75% of the time or more, then buying there is not a bad move. But if you want to stay at BRV, then wait, and buy there.