Historical Race Temps

[cewait]

Not to create any panic but here are the weather conditions seen since 1999. We are roughly 30 days out so it is a good idea to think through your plans for dealing with Race Morning Weather.

The low roughly equates to race start or about an hour into the race. The Mean is a good guess of the finish temps for the full and the half finish temps somewhere between the Mean and the Low. Note that the races were held as one in 2005 and earlier, so only one observation.

Date --------HI------LO------Mean------Rain
2010-Half--41------31--------35--------Sleet!
Full ---------45------27--------35--------0
2009-Half--73------48--------60--------0
Full ---------73------51--------62--------(Post Race)
2008-Half--81------61--------69--------0
Full ---------76------58--------66--------0
2007-Half--83------67--------75--------0
Full ---------84------63--------74--------0
2006-Half--56------40--------48--------0
Full ---------66------34--------50--------0
2005--------81-------57-------69--------0
2004--------64-------39-------52--------0
2003--------62-------44-------53--------0
2002--------71-------51-------61--------rain
2001--------70-------31-------51--------0
2000--------78-------61-------70--------0
1999--------60-------45-------53--------0
1998--------70-------47-------59--------0
Averages---69-------48-------58

 

[verticalchaos]

Can I put in my order for a day like 2006, 2003, 2004 or 1999 please?

 

[liznboys]

Yes, 2006 looks like a good one to hope for!

Thanks Charles!

 

[TnTsParty]

All I know is I don't want temps like in 2008, 2007 or 2005 It even got a little warm toward the end of the full in 2009 so I am calling up for another cold one this year - just have to layer right like I did last year - I LOVED it

 

[Kirsty-Leigh]

I am going to go against the grain and say that I really would prefer it hotter than cold. I signed up for Goofy again with the idea that I can do better if I am warm. I don't think I could survive another one like last year

 

[rubato]

I am going to go against the grain and say that I really would prefer it hotter than cold. I signed up for Goofy again with the idea that I can do better if I am warm. I don't think I could survive another one like last year

I'm with you! I wouldn't mind if we were running in the 50s to 70s. Sorry everyone else, I know you guys don't want that. I just don't like to be cold.

 

[jazzyannie]

I would be thrilled if we had 2008 or 2009 half marathon's weather for the 2011 Half!!! Its my first ever half marathon and I cant wait!!! I really cant wait to escape the cold, snowy wisconsin winter! That would be a nice XMAS gift from Santa... warm marathon weekend weather!

 

[verticalchaos]

I would be thrilled if we had 2008 or 2009 half marathon's weather for the 2011 Half!!! Its my first ever half marathon and I cant wait!!! I really cant wait to escape the cold, snowy wisconsin winter! That would be a nice XMAS gift from Santa... warm marathon weekend weather!

Have you ever run in head and humidity? NOT FUN! Cooler is better for running.

 

[pyrxtc]

I'll go for 2007 or 2008 weather, if I have to be there by 2:40 am, then I don't want to freeze !!

 

[bunnyfoo]

Generally I like when the weather that starts out around 50F (10C) ... But having never run a marathon before, I'm not sure of what the temps will be like when I finish. I'm thinking that at 50F, it might get too hot while I'm on course.

I've done races in both the freezing cold and in the heat and humidity - I can't say I like either extreme, both have their disadvantages.

 

[MaryJ]

I ran in 2009 and I thought it was just right. Warm, but not too warm. Don't want last year's weather again though!!!

 

[cewait]

Not to throw any fuel on the fire but you really do not want a 2000, 2007 or 2008 for the marathon. Of the three 07 was by far the worst year ever for the half and full with start temps in the upper 60’s. During the full for the casual runner the aid stations just ran out of supplies. I was on a 4:20/4:30 pace through mile 16 and saw stations folding up – I could not imagine what it was like for the 7 hour pacer. 00 and 08 were more manageable but a lot of my friends from the frozen tundra of the Midwest were troubled by the toughness of the heat.

Nonetheless, with the la Nina weather pattern expect warmer than normal temps this year. I know last week and this weekend you could not prove that is the pattern. You really want it cool enough that you are not fighting dehydration issues. The ideal race would be a start in the mid to upper 40’s with noon temps in the 50’s.

Remember as the race gets closer that there are rules for running in the heat and they all focus on dropping pace. You need to think about pace impacts once temps go above 60. If you want to add the humidity impact in was well start slowing your pace once the sum of humidity and temperature pass 160. So a 60F start in the fog would almost equate to a 70F start in 90% humidity. The general rule of thumb is to drop about 2% pace for every 5F above these thresholds and then push that to 4% for every 5F above 80F. So if you ran a 10 minute mile in sub 60F temps you would want to drop pace to a 10:12 is temps were between 60 and 65 and to a 10:24 for temps between 65 and 70.

An additional source of information is Galloway and he starts at lower temps than most any coach out there. He states that you should drop pace by 1% for temps in the range of 55 – 60F; 3% for 60-65F; 5% for 65-70F and 7% for 70-75F. The 10 minute pacer degrades to 10:06, 10:18, 10:30 and 10:42 respectively. Likewise a 15 minute pacer should slow to 15:09, 15:27, 15:45 and 16:03 respectively. Before my slower friends start to panic too much, you are more than likely overdressing on training runs in the cold so you are already building the slower pace into your training pace. Just remember that a warmer race day equates to a higher body temp and a need for keener hydration and slower speeds.

 

[wtpclc]

2006 was perfect. Even then, Ithought itt was pretty warm at the end.

 

[Duanerice]

I thought 2008 and 2009 were just fine. 2010..... I am still thawing out from that one. That was brutal!

Duane

 

[cewait]

I thought 2008 and 2009 were just fine. 2010..... I am still thawing out from that one. That was brutal!

Duane

Saturday 08 was fun but thinking that Sunday we both had melt downs. I seem to recall I was having a slight overpace and salt issue around mile 10 and told you to go and then your allergic reaction to Disney road cambers in the early teen miles

I only wish I would have seen you as I went by on Bear Island Road.

While I enjoyed 10's weather it was too cold by about 10-12F

 

[FireDancer]

I just got back from doing 8 and the temp here today would be absolutely perfect for race weekend. It was 41 with a wind chill of 36 even though there was no wind really, completely clear, humidity of 66%, and just enough cloud cover to keep the sun off your back.

Being able to get out in shorts and short sleeves really makes the run much more pleasant and you feel much less restricted then having to bundle up.

 

[Bephus]

I am really hoping for cooler weather than my last Disney which was 2007. It was brutal, and I am from the south!! Hoping the cool weather we have been having either holds or returns at least for that weekend. Prepared for any weather though as I know it could be anything from 90's to 20's.

 

[Sarah_Rose]

I'm glad to see I'm not the only one who's wishing for a bit of warm (not heat, but warm). I don't want temps in the 80's, but the 60's would be kind of nice.

Last year almost turned me off the whole thing. It was COLD out there!

 

[cewait]

Interestingly enough the Accuweather 15 day forecast only has one day of seasonal temperatures and two days above seasonal temperatures. That leaves twelve days of below seasonal temperatures during the period through December 27. (looking at the lows only)

So much for La Nina and a warmer than normal year.

 

[Bephus]

Interestingly enough the Accuweather 15 day forecast only has one day of seasonal temperatures and two days above seasonal temperatures. That leaves twelve days of below seasonal temperatures during the period through December 27. (looking at the lows only)

So much for La Nina and a warmer than normal year.

We have been pretty cool lately here in No FL, we actually have already had several hard freezes! Last year was warm enough for shorts and t's on Christmas. Who knows what will happen by race weekend. Enjoying the great weather for right now though, except the latest cold front brought massive winds, yuck!