Historic Race Temps 98-13

[cewait]

Not to create any panic but here are the weather conditions seen since 1998. We are roughly 40 days out so it is a good idea to think through your plans for dealing with Race Morning Weather.

The low roughly equates to race start or about an hour into the race. The Mean is a good guess of the finish temps for the full and the half finish temps somewhere between the Mean and the Low. (example, if the half start was 40 and the mean was 50, estimate the half finish at 45 - not scientific, but a good guess) Note that the races were held as one in 2005 and earlier, so only one observation.

So what does this mean.....

The race temps at the start have ranged from a balmy 67F down to a 27F. Finish temps have ranged from around 75F down to less than 35F. For planning purposes... The average temperature gain through the race is about 12F....

By far 2007 has been the warmest race, even warmer than the 2013 race. 2010 was the coolest weekend. What this shows is that the weather has been all over the place so one cannot assume that we will have any particular weather. Performance studies do tend to suggest that races in the lower 40's through 50's are much better for athletes as that range of temperatures takes overheating out of the equation.

Enjoy

Date -------------HI------LO------Mean------Rain
---------------------------------------------------------------
1/12/2013-Half---80------60--------70---------0
1/13/2013-Full---81------62--------71----------0
1/7/2012-Half---74------44--------59---------0
1/8/2012-Full---77------48--------62----------0
1/8/2011-Half---72------48--------60---------0
1/9/2011-Full ---66------42--------54--------0
1/9/2010-Half---41------31--------35--------Sleet!
1/10/2010-Full --45------27--------35--------0
1/10/2009-Half--73------48--------60--------0
1/11/2009-Full --73------51--------62--------(Post Race)
1/12/2008-Half--81------61--------69--------0
1/13/2008-Full --76------58--------66--------0
1/6/2007-Half---83------67--------75--------0
1/7/2007-Full ---84------63--------74--------0
1/7/2006-Half---56------40--------48--------0
1/8/2006-Full ---66------34--------50--------0
1/9/2005---------81------57--------69--------0
1/11/2004-------64-------39-------52--------0
1/12/2003-------62-------44-------53--------0
1/6/2002--------71-------51-------61--------rain
1/7/2001--------70-------31-------51--------0
1/8/2000--------78-------61-------70--------0
1/10/1999-------60-------45-------53--------0
1/11/1998-------70-------47-------59--------0
--------------------------------------------------------
Averages--------70-------49-------59
__________________

 

[DoctorK]

That's great data, Coach! I put it into a graph format for people who are more visually-inclined.

 

[cewait]

Now that's cool. I actually have plotted the data in the past but never posted it.

 

[dburg30]

I would love for the averages lol.. Then Sunday PM thru that week, partly cloudy with hi's around 75-80 would be great

 

[escape]

I did my first ever half at WDW in 2007. I wasn't prepared for the heat. My first full was in 2008 - hot again. My first Goofy was in 2010 - the coldest temps. I much prefer the cold over the heat.

I'm not going to participate in 2014; however, WISHing for cool weather for those who are.

GO, WISH, GO!

 

[RnbwSktles]

40s or low 50s would really be ideal! I am training in colder temps right now, but all my half-marathons thus far have been in that range and it was perfect.

I have to agree with a PP though...I hope the rest of the week is 75-80!

 

[John VN]

Mother Nature has a mind of her own and I am thinking it will be warm for many of those racing but cold for this SW FL boy. BTW, 60's is cold for me.

McFlurry John

 

[Diskidatheart]

I hope the trend of the last 4 years doesn't continue. If it does, it may reach 90! I'm with others and would love to see the averages.

 

[DoctorK]

I'd say we're due for a reversion to the mean.

 

[paxsarah]

The two years I've run during marathon weekend, 2011 and 2012, weather on race morning was perfect. I can only hope that I'm bringing good luck and good temps by coming back in 2014.

 

[belle2211]

I'm a wimp. I'm hoping it starts and ends around the same temp--60 with cloud cover. Probably not going to happen

Ran a 6k in Jax on Thanksgiving. Temp was 34 with wind chill of 26. I have never run in such cold weather before. Long sleeves, pants, gloves, and headband that covered my ears. Too much gear! Plus waiting around was brutal and that was only 15 minutes (I can't imagine waiting for a Disney race in those temps!) Plus I re-injured my knee (just after it was feeling better!) and I'm blaming it on the cold weather!