Hey, AlanUK. We're Having Another Hurricane Over Here!

[Feralpeg]

Alan, you do a great job with your hurricane reports. Time to get busy. We are going to be hit by Jeanne early tomorrow. They are telling us it will be a Cat 3 or 4 when it makes landfall near Vero Beach. It will most likely track right over good old Orlando. We should expect 85 to 100 mph winds. Gee, this is really getting old! Start tracking, Alan!

By the way, the Orlando International Airport will stop flights at 5pm today. I don't know about Sanford, but I bet it will be right behind. We should start feeling the outer bands before midnight tonight.

 

[floridalol]

Unfortunately we've had our flight cancelled this morning (were flying out Sunday) and the first available flight we managed to get with Virgin was Friday 1st October - so lets hope it's all clear by then - wishing you well and hope it doesn't get too bad for you.

Florida Lol

 

[AlanUK]

Hi Feralpeg & All

I am still here, but was on Holiday the week Ivan hit and this week I have been snowed under at work and just have not had time to investigate and track Jeanne as she has meandered around in the Carribbean before deciding where she actaully wanted to go. Sadly in the end it looks like she too has plumped for Florida as the path of least resistance

As Feralpeg stated above the advice from the NHC is that Jeanne is currently at Category 2 status with 105mph winds but is looking like she will strengthen before reaching Florida. It looks like she will make at least Category 3 but they are not ruling out an intensification to Cat 4 , probably wise given what happened with Charley at the start of August (gosh that seems like a long time ago now)

The thing that has been the problem with Jeanne is that she lost the steering currents last week and has only just picked them up again which has made her very difficult to track. She is also surrounded by dry air and has been churning up the sea below her reducing the sea surface temperatures, both factors have inhibited Jeannes ability to strengthen and have made forcasting more problematic. As she has started to move a little faster now the tracking becomes easier and the probability of strengthening rises, provided there is no significant wid shear in her path, which at this stage looks to be the case.

Jeanne is scheduled to make landfall in Florida in the early hours of tomorrow morning EDT around the area of lake Okeechobee. Before turning northwards and moving straight up the centre of Folrida. The following diagram show the predicted tracks from the weather models as they stood thsi morning.

If anything changes in the next NHC update later today I will advise.

Alan.

 

[Feralpeg]

Thanks, Alan. I will probably be going dark (perhaps literally), later this evening. Sorry to all of you who have had your trips impacted. We really do want you to visit here. Not meaning to sound strange, but I now spend a lot of time at the Disney parks and at Downtown Disney. Out of all the tourists I talk to (and I am a talker), I so enjoy talking to British tourists. I have never met one that hasn't been friendly and polite. That is more than I can say about some of the US tourists. Gee, I think I'm bonding!

Talk to you guys post Jeanne!

 

[snookhams]

I pray that the area is not to badly damaged, we were staying in Indian Point (off Poinciana Bldvd) when 'Charley' hit, not a pleasant experience, as was the 5 following days with no power, and no help from the villa's management company (who were English - by the way) but the Americans in near by homes came and checked that we were OK, they new that this was a holiday let, it is not an experience that myself or my family would like to live through again, but we won't let it put us of your lovely state, we are coming back next year, and plan to make up for the time lost thanks to 'Charley'

 

[AlanUK]

Not al long winded update, just to say that the latest advisory from the NHC now has Jeanne as a Category 3 hurricane.

She is finally doing something just at the wrong time for Florida

Not one to speculate usually, I personally think that this might be it for the 2004 season as far as storms making landfall in the US goes.

Nature has a funny way of starting one thing and then finishing it in exactly the same way. As we started with Cat 4 Charley it might be that we finsh with Cat 4 Jeanne.

Time will only tell

Alan.