I think the crowd-calendar folks are having a great difficulty assessing recent crowds (like the last 6 months or so) So much of their formula seems to be based on historical info for similar times over the last few years. But the economy is recovering well for many people...and many more are going on vacations. I suspect the last 5 yrs worth of data is going to be next to worthless in a booming vacation economy...
For what it's worth, we have been to WDW 5 times October 2013-February 2014 and we have found both crowd calendars to often be incorrect...both ways: either too high on the crowds sized estimate (which was very nice for us...expected a "5", got a "1") but also way too low in a couple of situations (not so nice-expected a "2", got a "6". ) I'm talking about the popular free site, easywdw and also the paid-subscription site, touringplans.
Before last Fall, we found both sites to usually agree with each other on our vacations, and both were very accurate - crowd might be slightly bigger or smaller, but never off substantially like we're seeing now.
Regardless of actual crowd-size, FP+ most definitely affects the length of stand-by lines, sometimes dramatically at the rides that rarely used to have a line. We've seen 30-40 minute stand-by at Pirates, at Haunted Mansion, etc...it was because where they used to send people down "either side" and load the whole crowd from both sides, now the one side is reserved for FP+ and they never send anyone else down that side, no matter how backed up the stand-by line gets. They may only have 5 people in the FP+ side, and 200 in the other side...they never switch any riders over to the other side.