It's all speculation, of course, but I'm inclined to think the new W/L rules are changing things...
Used to be we could W/L day-by-day (and all such wait lists I'd used came through). Then we couldn't do day-by-day, but could do as many W/Ls as we wanted...now, we can only do two and they cannot be day-by-day.
MS says this reduces the many changes members were making. Whether it increases, decreases or has no effect on chances for a W/L coming through I don't know.
I do know that no W/L I've ever done came through in more than one or two-day increments. So I'm inclined to think that a W/L for more than one day or possibly two days has a lesser chance for success. And the more days one W/Ls for, the lesser the chances of a match.
But I don't know.
I only know that my recent attempt to get a studio at either BCV or BWV for any night or all nights from 3/15 through 3/20 did not work, and that my effort to change from an OKW one-bedroom reservation to a BCV one-bedroom--which started prior to the "only two W/Ls" rule--worked, but only a day at a time...never got more than one day at a time...I both called and used the W/L and a couple of times "snagged" the one-day availability at BCV when the W/L hadn't because the W/L had to be a multi-day W/L...
It's now both much simpler and much more complicated if you're trying to piece together a reservation.
I'm thinking it may prove to be nearly impossible to do the kind of short-notice reservation piecing-together I used to be able to do. This may be good for the "system," but certainly is not good for my family. While we can and do book our T-giving trip 11 months out, getting a commitment even 7 months out, much less 11, from any of the people who go w/me (my college/law school student DS and various friends and other family members) is next to impossible--so losing the ability to piece together short-notice reservations has been a big "hit" for me & my family.
Not sure yet what I'm going to to do about it. I'm sad, as
DVC no longer works particularly well for me. But I'm giving it some time to see how it all works out.