Has Touring plans lost its collective mind?

[DISHoppy]

Recently a thread was posted about a TP crowd estimate change for DHS in Nov (IIRC) from a 9 to a 2 or vice versa. On 22-March I received an e-mail from TP that MK was no longer a park to avoid, and was now a best park on 3-June. Today I received an e-mail that MK was now a park to avoid and no longer a best park. I used them for two previous trips and never saw this happen in ~6 mos. pre-trip for Nov (Thxgiving) and December trips. Anyone gots any idea what's sup? I was frankly surprised that MK was listed as a best park considering it has PM EMH on 3-June. Unfortunately I just caught the e-mails and didn't take a closer look @ the crowd estimate numbers.

-Kevin

 

[Al and Kate's Mom]

I'm going with the dartboard theory.

 

[kaligal]

Everyone makes mistakes on crowds sometimes. Stuff changes, new things come up, computers are involved. They generally correct errors.

If you read the book or the site, you'll get the explanation...if you want it.

 

[WsPrincess]

My dates in June have been wacky too. Kind of back and forth. Nothing dramatic but one day some place is a park to avoid and then the next day it switches back. I am still going with my plan since it is too late to make adjustments based on where we are eating.

 

[BlueAurora]

I've been having similar issues with my september dates

 

[khertz]

I have tracked dates for my last 3 trips on TP, and I seem to be getting a LOT more tracker updates/changes for my October trip. I have never seen things change so much. Not sure what's up with that, but I've just been kind of "ignoring" all the updates since there is still a long time before our trip gets here and we are not making very many ADR's. I'll start paying more attention as the trip actually gets closer.

 

[PixieDustFanatic]

I'm wondering this too. On the first Saturday of F&W, they have Epcot listed as a best park and a very low crowd level.....ummm...okay....they can go, I plan to avoid Epcot like the plague that day. Lol

 

[mirage0306]

Epcot has levels in the 1s and 2s for pretty much our entire trip--in June!! I am apprehensive, but would be very happy if this were the case

 

[TiggerTrigger]

After our August trip- I lost all faith in their predictions. Back in Dec 2010 I started to question them b/c I had a day that was supposed to be a 7.6 and it was half that, if not more. Come August- all of our days were listed as 9s (or higher), but everything was between a 3-5. Even my friend who went this past December just before Christmas felt their #s were way off. I've officially given up.

 

[TiggerTrigger]

After our August trip- I lost all faith in their predictions. Back in Dec 2010 I started to question them b/c I had a day that was supposed to be a 7.6 and it was half that, if not more. Come August- all of our days were listed as 9s (or higher), but everything was between a 3-5. Even my friend who went this past December just before Christmas felt their #s were way off. I've officially given up.

 

[LilyWDW]

It is called a forecast. As more information is added, it refigures the information. No forecast is going to be 100% as you are essentially attempting to predict the future by using information from the past. There are too many variables that could change things.

I actually am glad to see all the updates because it most likely would mean they are adding information and running the possible scenarios. That said, I would not worry to much as things can change the week of.

If you understand what Touring Plans, EasyWDW, and Tour Guide Mike are... then you know that they will never be the be all, end all of what could happen.

 

[txtara]

Epcot has levels in the 1s and 2s for pretty much our entire trip--in June!! I am apprehensive, but would be very happy if this were the case

Same for my dates in June....a little hard to believe.

 

[RalphinSC]

I'm also going to the World during that time and TP has certainly been making a lot of changes. I know they generally switch the numbers around when they get updated booking estimates and when the schedules update about a month out but it appears a lot of what they are doing now is switching park recommendation without even changing their number ratings. Like the date the OP mentioned to being with, TP changed the MK from a best park to a park to avoid without any change in the crowd estimate at all. They've been doing that a lot over the past month for almost all my dates in June. Kinda wierd but I'm not really stressing it. I've already got my plan of attack figured out and with no ADR's this time, I'm quite flexible to change things on a whim.

 

[dsnyrn]

I am also going in mid June. I will not even look at the times until a day or two before we go. These are ESTIMATES! I am hoping for extended hours for the days we will be there, so they can change all they want!!!

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

I understand that any crowd calendar contains estimates, and that these should change as new information becomes available. I also understand statistical modeling and forecasting - it's obviously not an exact science.

However, as I (and others) have posted in other threads, TP forecasts for upcoming trips these days seem off -- far off from what we've ever experienced over the past 8 years. In addition, they have been completely unresponsive when I've asked them questions about their forecasts.

I used to swear by TP, but these days I don't have any faith in their forecasts. Maybe they changed some significant assumptions in their models, or maybe it's something else. Whatever it is, it has rendered their forecasts uninformative to me.

These days, I prefer to go with easywdw.com -- seems more on target based on our experience, and the explanations are detailed and make sense.

And to state the obvious - NO forecast should swing from a 2 to a 9 or vise versa without a significant change in material inputs (e.g. major park events, correction to spring break dates, etc.). Don't know what those would be for the June dates you mentioned...

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

I've already got my plan of attack figured out and with no ADR's this time, I'm quite flexible to change things on a whim.

Just my 2 cents... If I were you, I'd go with my current plan and then change on a whim while in the parks and based on my judgment about how the crowds felt. I WOULDN'T change on a whim ahead of time based on TP's forecasts changing... certainly not the way those forecasts have looked these days.

This may be exactly what you meant anyway, but I thought I'd put this out there, just in case...

 

[CandleontheWater]

I'm wondering this too. On the first Saturday of F&W, they have Epcot listed as a best park and a very low crowd level.....ummm...okay....they can go, I plan to avoid Epcot like the plague that day. Lol

You know, I originally thought this too, but if you think about it does make sense.

TP is based around attraction wait times, not F&W kiosk wait times, therefore, if you are going to ride rides, it might make sense to go when the bulk of the crowd is noshing around WS, and not in line at Test Track.

I totally understand that F&W will increase the number of people in the park, but not necessarily increase wait times at the attractions.

All that being said, a touring plan for the F&W booths is something I could really get behind!

 

[rwdavis2]

I've been tracking Nov. 11-16 and have gotten about 5-6 updates already. Nothing real major yet with some parks only changing by .1 - .2 . I can't figure out what makes the numbers change this far out. The only thing I can think of is they have statistical data indicating if park levels are at X right now and changing by Y in tha last few weeks then levels going forward change by Z. That would require TONS of information to process. And I would still find those types of correlations almost worthless. Correlation does not guarantee causuality.

 

[fan1080]

From my experience with them (a few years ago now), they always made adjustments to the dates we were planning.

Sounds like things are the same.

 

[lamb616]

I understand that estimates can change and that it's not an exact science but I think what people are saying is there seems to be a LOT more changes recently than in the past. I've found the same thing. I don't think I got ANY changes for my trip last year; this year I'm getting several emails a week that parks are changing from Best Parks to Parks to Avoid, then back to Best Park.