My calculation was actually very raw.
Based on the fact I need to decide by the end of February weather to dump the same chunk of money into a 7% CD, or purchase a DVC membership, I calculated the following:
How much interest could I get on the money in 3 years + dues I would pay in 3 years + interest I could have gained on those dues paid for each year they were paid in advance of the expected point use (lost interest on dues calculated at only 5%).
I ended up with $3759, and that was with interest compounded yearly. I add to this, the % of the 10,800 that applies to the 3 years, which is about $791. This brings the cost of my 3 years of points up to 4550.
At the end of 3 years I would have 450 points, enough to stay one premier week in a 2 bedroom.
Now I ask myself, is the value that I can buy, with these 450 points, worth that much more then what I could buy with the $4550.
I just paid for a week at OKW and it was just over $3500 (and since the trip starts before value season ends, it is at the value season rate).
I could stay in a wilderness cabin even cheaper. In fact two wilderness homes might be an option for a bigger crowd.
After my week in a 2 bedroom at OKW I will decide if the extra luxury is worth the extra money.
I did NOT calculate based on borrowing a years points ahead. I did not calculate the rate at which prices are going up, although as the economy slows this will slow also.
As far as selling the vacation plan in the future, if each year I only spend the interest gained on the money, I always still have the initial 10800 in the bank. However if I start tapping into the initial 10800, as I did in my calculation, I end up with LESS money each year for vacation.
I also calculated the actual cost of the 40th years points, based on interest lost only on that percent of the 10800.
It turned out that that years 150 points actually cost over $3000, not including dues.
I am considering that there is a risk, in that I might actually tire of Disney (although I doubt it based on my life history). Plane fare could become prohibitive, in which case I would vacation on the west coast.
The value of the points at
DisneyLand is not much of a value, since the disneyland hotels do not have good deals on suite type accomodations. For less then the cost of the points I could stay at Residence inn. If I was into luxury non-suite style accomodations, then this might be of some value to me.
If there were an OKW style disney resort, on the west cost, on any nice west coast beach, I would have joined the club years ago.
Trading with non-disney resorts is an option, but it was not a cost saving option when I compared to the cost of just paying for the same vacation.