GRAND OPENING - GRAND CLOSING (Florida)

[godisney14]

we shall see, I’ll still take the side we have hit the plateau part , just a matter of how long till we see a true decline.

A plateau? An opinion based on a weekend lag?

By now, since it’s a repeated pattern every week, I would think it is known to everyone even remotely following the news that there is always a weekend lag in daily new case numbers from Friday to Monday. We saw a similar 25% decline in daily new cases over the weekend just two weeks ago. Since that weekend dip two weeks ago, the moving average is already 50% more on the daily numbers. Just wait a couple more days, the daily number could top 80,000 when looking at the trend line.

 

[mamaofsix]

Something we haven't discussed: spread from metropolitan areas within the same state. See: rich people living in Manhattan and escaping to their country homes upstate (or elsewhere), bringing the virus with them. Or just the fact that some states are HUGE with densely populated urban areas, suburbs, and sparsely populated rural areas all within 2 hours of each other. In Milan, they locked down the entire region and you could not travel elsewhere in the country until (i memory serves me) end of May/beginning of June. That's also pretty extreme, but effective, but I think I'd freak out a little bit if I couldn't leave the city limits. How would we enforce something like that?

I mentioned it up thread, but this was done in Ontario. For a number of months, Toronto area residents were barred from going to their cottages or vacation homes. This represented a HUGE amount of people. Under emergency order, individual counties and mayors were allowed to mandate this. For example, our Muskoka area - where many wealthy Torontonians retreat to on weekends - did not allow anyone to come from the city to their cottages/vacation homes for several months.

Eventually this was lifted, but those who came were instructed to drive straight to their vacation home and not use the local grocery stores or amenities.

Combine this with strong gov't messaging encouraging people to "stay in your home / neighbourhood / city in order to protect others," and there was a pretty high level of compliance.

It did create uproar because these are home-owners who were paying taxes and mortgages to have 2nd homes in cottage country, but could not even use them. Also, vacation areas lost a great deal of revenue from the typical crowds that flock there.

But, the mandate stuck for a long time. Local officials were given the go-ahead to enforce.

As a result, the high numbers in Toronto did not spread into the rural areas.

 

[Donaldswife]

We should let Disney and the NBA run the country. They seemingly have this figured out. As I've said, people have to get there, which is the problem, because outside of the Disney bubble....it's not as great.

However, the NBA is in the Disney/NBA bubble. They have really strict rules in place for the players. They couldn't leave the bubble. No other person allowed in their rooms. Two players tested positive last Monday, and so they were quarantined. Today, all 346 players tested negative. So, they did it. If you don't give the virus a new host to jump to...the virus dies.

I believe they enter a phase down the road where some family are allowed to stay with the players, but they need to be quarantined/tested first. It'll be interesting to see how that next phase goes. But these kinds of strict controls are necessary to squash this virus.

The problem with this is they have multiple tests for each and every player and person in the bubble, but for us regular citizens there are areas of the country with shoratges of test, or if they have tests a week or more wait time for results. If they stopped using so many test for unnecessary professional sports to happen maybe we would be better able to test the rest of the country.

 

[KBoopaloo]

The Lee County Health hospital system is considering themselves at 100% of their staffed capacity as of this morning. Elective surgeries requiring post-op hospitalization are now cancelled but day surgeries continue. They are bringing in additional staffing to up their staffed capacity. Their supply of ventilators is good and they just received a new shipment of Remdesivir (their doctor reported last week that their supply of the drug was quite low.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1285660389531955200

 

[jlwhitney]

A plateau? An opinion based on a weekend lag?

By now, since it’s a repeated pattern every week, I would think it is known to everyone even remotely following the news that there is always a weekend lag in daily new case numbers from Friday to Monday. We saw a similar 25% decline in daily new cases over the weekend just two weeks ago. Since that weekend dip two weeks ago, the moving average is already 50% more on the daily numbers. Just wait a couple more days, the daily number could top 80,000 when looking at the trend line.

I am very well aware of the weekend lag, but yes its been more steady vs going higher and higher. But not everyone follows doom and gloom.

 

[Mango7100]

Oh my goodness. He expects them to behave responsibly instead of threatening them into compliance?

I know folks who have lost money on their European AirB&B accommodations. Not sure if it was a percentage or everything.

He doesn’t want to take any responsibility and make his base mad, so he just “hopes“.... meanwhile people think it’s all a hoax and whine and stamp their feet when a store requires a mask, so they have demonstrated they cannot behave responsibility but he does nothing....he has no problems passing other laws that “threaten people into compliance” if it suits his base

 

[anthony2k7]

Meanwhile in the uk, we've had an outbreak at one of our main track and trace call centres.

At least it shouldn't take the remaining staff long to do the tracing for it.

 

[hertamaniac]

Doesn't look encouraging for the NFL this year. 95 players?

https://www.nfl.com/news/nflpa-95-players-have-tested-positive-for-covid-19-at-some-point

 

[Searc]

The problem with this is they have multiple tests for each and every player and person in the bubble, but for us regular citizens there are areas of the country with shoratges of test, or if they have tests a week or more wait time for results. If they stopped using so many test for unnecessary professional sports to happen maybe we would be better able to test the rest of the country.

Those daily tests for the NBA also count in the total number of tests, keeping the pop artificially low.

 

[sam_gordon]

Doesn't look encouraging for the NFL this year. 95 players?

https://www.nfl.com/news/nflpa-95-players-have-tested-positive-for-covid-19-at-some-point

"At some point", which means they could have had it and recovered.

 

[sam_gordon]

Those daily tests for the NBA also count in the total number of tests, keeping the pop artificially low.

We're talking what, maybe 500-1000 tests per day? Is that really enough to make a significant difference?

 

[hertamaniac]

"At some point", which means they could have had it and recovered.

Yes. They could also not be immune to have it redevelop in the future if what I am hearing is accurate.

 

[sam_gordon]

Yes. They could also not be immune to have it redevelop in the future if what I am hearing is accurate.

And someone who has never had it can get infected. My point was the 95 is not a current count of how many have it.

 

[hertamaniac]

My point was the 95 is not a current count of how many have it.

Oh I agree, it could be much lower/higher.

 

[sam_gordon]

Oh I agree, it could be much lower/higher.

Unless they haven't got the test results back, it's not going to be higher. 95 is how many HAVE had it. And if you think about this way, there are 32 teams. So ~3 people/team.

 

[Pyotr]

I am very well aware of the weekend lag, but yes its been more steady vs going higher and higher. But not everyone follows doom and gloom.

Weekend lag more applies to deaths than cases. I follow the numbers every day. It helps with my anxiety.

We are seeing a plateau in the hospitals near me. I haven’t had many cases reporting to me diagnosed. I’m hoping the worst is behind us.

 

[hertamaniac]

95 is how many HAVE had it.

Or could still have it. And given the lag in testing results, there is a chance the number will get higher. It is only current at a particular time/date stamp.

 

[jrmasm]

We're talking what, maybe 500-1000 tests per day? Is that really enough to make a significant difference?

The number doesn’t matter IMO, the optics are terrible.

 

[sam_gordon]

The number doesn’t matter IMO, the optics are terrible.

Considering I was replying to a PP who said all the negative tests from the NBA keep the pop "artificially low", apparently HE thinks the numbers matter.

 

[bavaria]

Masks mandatory again in Austria as of Friday in banks, post office, and supermarkets. (Were still required in public transport)

Population of 9 million, 1,400 currently infected. This was part of the reopening plan ie if cases rise, implement restrictions. Germany does it differently ie if an area has a certain case load per 100,000, local restrictions are implemented. Portugal does something similar.

I don't see that as a bad sign, but rather a way to implement some controls in targeted ways without returning to a (devasting) full lockdown nationwide.

https://www.welt.de/vermischtes/liv...erreich-Maskenpflicht-wieder-ausgeweitet.html