Glut of Inventory Developing?

[Patmcpsu]

I've been keeping my eye on DVC listings, and can't help but notice that inventory is growing. In the DVC Resale Average Sales Prices for January 2025 (published two weeks ago) Paul mentioned "the increased inventory during January has created a prime buying opportunity" and I can anecdotally say that inventory has grown even further since then. Some of this may be seasonal, or maybe the Red Hot Deals promotion creates the appearance of a selloff, but I can't help but sense something is happening here.

I'm curious to see the February issue of this report ~2 weeks from now.

 

[pzw90]

I've been keeping my eye on DVC listings, and can't help but notice that inventory is growing. In the DVC Resale Average Sales Prices for January 2025 (published two weeks ago) Paul mentioned "the increased inventory during January has created a prime buying opportunity" and I can anecdotally say that inventory has grown even further since then. Some of this may be seasonal, or maybe the Red Hot Deals promotion creates the appearance of a selloff, but I can't help but sense something is happening here.

I'm curious to see the February issue of this report ~2 weeks from now.

Paul will always push that it’s “time to buy” as long as he’s affiliated with World of DVC, it’s their business to sell contracts.

While there is an increase in number of contracts from a few months ago, I haven’t seen the supply have a meaningful downward pressure on prices, at least on the contracts I’m looking at.

Amount of contracts is cyclical, see below thread from August when they were “drying up”

https://www.disboards.com/threads/contracts-drying-up.3951502/

 

[MICKIMINI]

I've been keeping my eye on DVC listings, and can't help but notice that inventory is growing. In the DVC Resale Average Sales Prices for January 2025 (published two weeks ago) Paul mentioned "the increased inventory during January has created a prime buying opportunity" and I can anecdotally say that inventory has grown even further since then. Some of this may be seasonal, or maybe the Red Hot Deals promotion creates the appearance of a selloff, but I can't help but sense something is happening here.

I'm curious to see the February issue of this report ~2 weeks from now.

Interesting. I have not been paying attention. I did look on the aggregate website and it appears that listings have increased by about 20% since I last looked maybe 4-5 weeks ago! Prices should follow with that kind of competition.

DH and I bought lots of contracts when covid started at dirt cheap prices. IMO, some people are no longer able to hold on to their contracts knowing it will take several months to get paid for a sale.

 

[jason423]

I feel like there is a flooding of RHD that is inflating the size of the available properties. The prices on the RHDs are not great and they are sitting for a long time which I think makes the market look much bigger than it is. I would not be surprised if those properties do not sell at those prices that they will all drop off for the time being.

 

[pzw90]

I feel like there is a flooding of RHD that is inflating the size of the available properties. The prices on the RHDs are not great and they are sitting for a long time which I think makes the market look much bigger than it is. I would not be surprised if those properties do not sell at those prices that they will all drop off for the time being.

If they were really that “hot” they wouldn’t be lingering around so long. Some actually do go quick, but others really shouldn’t be called a deal. I know it’s all marketing

 

[darkconz]

Its a seasonality thing where we see more in Dec - Jan because it's time to pay for the Annual Dues

 

[dvc lover 1970]

I think we will see the prices start to slowy drop. Dvc is not limited anymore. They keep building and adding more.

 

[Brian Noble]

When weren't they?

 

[lilsonicfan]

In early 2023 when I was looking to buy, there were around 2,000 contracts listed in the resale listings. Right now there are about 1,350. I wouldn't call this a glut now.

 

[stat]

It got below 1000 a few months ago, so it's up a bit but I think this is natural intra year seasonality. And if anything down from the secular highs that peaked in 2022.

 

[ocdb8r1]

It's all about perspective and what timeframe you're looking over. There is always an increase in listed contracts as annual dues come due. People realize the annual cost and re-think about whether they want to keep paying (and/or visiting) every year.

I was actually having the opposite feeling as I expected listing to spike even higher than they have - compared to this time a year ago (jan/feb 2024), there are 15-20% fewer listings (I'm talking about what I see overall from all resellers). This also seems to show true for DVC Resale Market as well. The January 2025 article didn't mention a specific number of listings, but if you look at the articles they posted in January and March 2024, there were in the 625+ range of contracts listed there. As of today, DVC Resale Market only has 525 contracts listed.

As mentioned above, if you go back even further to early 2023, we were talking about over 2000 contracts (overall, from all resellers) and peaks in the 2600's in 2022. As such, the market looks to me to have stabilized more than ever in the last 12-18 months (to me we seem to be sticking solidly in the 1100-1400 range). In the last 18-20 months VDH, CFW and Poly tower all came online...between that and annual dues, I thought for sure we'd be back in the 1800+ contracts on resale.

 

[AstroBlasters]

I wonder who could be selling…. …..

 

[Brian Noble]

I mean, it could be anyone. 'Tis the season when the timeshares "for sale" go up. We've got another month or so before we flip from a buyers' market to a sellers' one, and this cyclic behavior happens ever year.

Then, layer macroeconomic forces on top of that. Inflation is unexpectedly sticky, and the chatter is not only the Fed pausing rate cuts, but whispers of rate increases. The VIX has been higher YoY, the stock market is "frothy", options volumes are going up---all signs that the market is getting nervous.

It's rarely any One Reason, even though The One Reason is a compelling story line.

 

[Instagramhusband]

Last year there were like 2100 contracts in February which is when I dipped in and grabbed 2 and then in April grabbed another 1.

I am still looking but there isn't quite the deals that I got a year ago. It has a ways to go before there as many options available.

 

[atthebeachclub]

I mean, it could be anyone. 'Tis the season when the timeshares "for sale" go up. We've got another month or so before we flip from a buyers' market to a sellers' one, and this cyclic behavior happens ever year.

Then, layer macroeconomic forces on top of that. Inflation is unexpectedly sticky, and the chatter is not only the Fed pausing rate cuts, but whispers of rate increases. The VIX has been higher YoY, the stock market is "frothy", options volumes are going up---all signs that the market is getting nervous.

It's rarely any One Reason, even though The One Reason is a compelling story line.

Any idea what drives the seasonality? People owing taxes is my best bet, or having a holiday spending hangover.

 

[Brian Noble]

They way it has always been explained to me:

The annual budget arrives in the mail sometime in November or December, with a due date for maintenance fees in January or so. That causes a bunch of people to re-evaluate whether or not they want to keep this thing or sell it. Then, in the spring and early summer, lots of people get into "vacation planning mode" and that encourages a few people to expand their timeshare portfolios.

This has been more or less happening for as long as I've been in timesharing, and not just with Disney.

 

[heynowirv]

I feel like there is a flooding of RHD that is inflating the size of the available properties. The prices on the RHDs are not great and they are sitting for a long time which I think makes the market look much bigger than it is. I would not be surprised if those properties do not sell at those prices that they will all drop off for the time being.

RHD?

 

[pzw90]

RHD?

Red Hot Deal is what I assumed

 

[DonkeyHoTay]

RHD?

Red Hot Deal is what I assumed

Ok... that's better than my guess which was Right Hand Drive. Couldn't make sense of why steering wheel placement is related to DVC, but not the first time I struggled with acronyms around here....

 

[Cfabar1]

I think there are a lot of trends and headwinds being faced right now… Some related to Disney, some related to post-covid revenge travel being over, some related to economic uncertainty that comes with a new administration (always does) coupled with unknown tax law changes at the end of the year, as well as the return of high inflation…

That and, the big new fun stuff at Disney isn’t coming for at least another year…

And more and more resorts cropping up…

And, personally, I think the studio-heavy nature of DVC could also be a factor - I know we didn’t buy DVC for the ability to stay in hotel rooms…