Gauging Finish Time in a flat course Half vs a very hill course Half?

[DisneyRunnerGirl]

Hey folks - anyone have a good "formula" to help determine what your finish time might be on a flat half (all other things - temp, wind, sun, how you feel, etc. being equal) when your current PR is for the hilliest and toughest half you have ever run?

I did a half this past weekend outside of Las Vegas and clobbered my PR by 7 minutes and 20 secs.

The thing is that this course was down hill for the first mile and a half, then pretty flat for 1.5 to 6 and THEN one long uphill from mile 7 to 11.5 (gaining over 500 feet), then flat for about another 3/4 mile and then one more long uphill to the finish. Not exactly terrain this girl is used too , so I was shocked at my time!

I live in the land of flat and "fast" half marathon courses and am trying to figure out if it is realistic to think I can cut this weekend's time by 2 and a half minutes? That would put me over a long time stretch goal for the half.

I am considering entering the Columbus Half in October with that goal in mind, but would like some feedback from you vets out there.

Thanks,

 

[cewait]

There is really not a formula or set of tables for this type of comparison. Each course is unique and what is hilly for one runner may still be flat for another. You also have body mass issues that penalize some runners on the ups yet not give them the same down slope advantages.

 

[Bephus]

If your next race is in October I Think that droping 2.5 min from your PR can be very doable. That is just a few seconds per mile (let's say 15 sec per mile to be on the safe side). So what you will want to do is focus on speed for the summer. I am not a coach for running (I did coach swimming back in the day) but I have dropped significant time this year in all distances by running for speed at least once a week and doing races at shorter distances at goal race pace. So I run a 5k on Tuesday all out (usually around 8 min/mile now but started at 8:20 min/mile last summer) and ran 10 mile race at sub-9 min/mile for 8:45 pace half (ended up doing 8:32min/mile) and sub-4 hour full (did 3:56.20 or 9min/mile).
You definitely have enough time to drop the time! GL!!

 

[fashionista311]

This was a good little article about PRing in Boston but I think some of it can be applied to you as well...

http://askcoachjenny.runnersworld.com/2011/04/tips-for-running-your-best-boston-marathon-ever.html

Good luck!