...what really bugs me about Dr. Jefferson, namely the disconnect between what he says in public to journalists and what he writes in various Cochrane Reviews about influenza for which he is a coauthor. First, a couple of samples straight from Brownlee and Lenzers article. Heres sample 1:
Tom Jefferson has taken a lot of heat just for saying, Heres the evidence: its not very good, says Majumdar. The reaction has been so dogmatic and even hysterical that youd think he was advocating stealing babies. Yet while other flu researchers may not like what Jefferson has to say, they cannot ignore the fact that he knows the flu-vaccine literature better than anyone else on the planet. He leads an international team of researchers who have combed through hundreds of flu-vaccine studies. The vast majority of the studies were deeply flawed, says Jefferson. Rubbish is not a scientific term, but I think its the term that applies. Only four studies were properly designed to pin down the effectiveness of flu vaccine, he says, and two of those showed that it might be effective in certain groups of patients, such as school-age children with no underlying health issues like asthma. The other two showed equivocal results or no benefit.
Ah, yes, the Brave Maverick Doctor encounters pushback by the dogmatic and close-minded medical community that obviously cannot see his brilliance. And heres sample 2:
In a phone interview, Fauci at first voiced the opinion that a placebo trial in the elderly might be acceptable, but he called back later to retract his comment, saying that such a trial would be unethical. Jefferson finds this view almost exactly backward: What do you do when you have uncertainty? You test, he says. We have built huge, population-based policies on the flimsiest of scientific evidence. The most unethical thing to do is to carry on business as usual.
Wow. Rubbish and the flimsiest of evidence. Strong stuff. I wonder. Does Dr. Jefferson say the same things in his Cochrane Reviews? Well, no, as revere pointed out. Take a look at the Cochrane Reviews page for flu vaccines. Then take a look at the conclusions he makes in Cochrane Reviews about the flu vaccine. As revere says, they areshall we say?considerably weaker than what Dr. Jefferson says in public to journalists, including the extra bonus example I included after stealing reveres examples:
(Geoff_M: I'ved edited the examples to only include one topic referred to by the NYT blogger)
We concluded that there is no credible evidence that vaccination of healthy people under the age of 60, who are HCWs [health care workers] caring for the elderly, affects influenza complications in those cared for. However, as vaccinating the elderly in institutions reduces the complications of influenza and vaccinating healthy persons under 60 reduces cases of influenza, those with the responsibility of caring for the elderly in institutions may want to increase vaccine coverage and assess its effects in well-designed studies. (Thomas RE, Jefferson T, Demicheli V, Rivetti D, Influenza vaccination for healthcare workers who work with the elderly, Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2006 Jul 19;3:CD005187)
Pretty wishy-washy, full of the usual cautious wording that scientists expect and use, wouldnt you say? I would. I also note that that last quote indicates to me that the flu vaccine is actually pretty darned good, with 80% efficacy when the vaccine matches the circulating strain. The H1N1 vaccine matches the strain quite well; so we should expect that it will be quite efficacious.
In any case, so why does Jefferson go all full mental jacket negative when hes speaking with journalists? Why does he do what irritates the crap out of me and many other advocates of science-based medicine when its done by researchers, be they legitimate scientists or mavens of alternative medicine whose statements in press releases and in public are far stronger (and often more inflammatory) than anything one can find in their scientific papers? The answer is obvious. Its because he can! Dr. Jefferson cant say stuff like rubbish and the flimsiest of evidence in scientific papers because peer reviewers will quite properly shoot it down, but he sure can say what he really thinks to reporters. Moreover, Jefferson wouldnt be the first scientist to fall for the blandishments of fame and a public reputation as bucking the establishment, something the media loves. Being an iconoclast or a maverick is very seductive. It brings attention and fame. In recent years, Dr. Jefferson has become the go-to vaccine scientist for the skeptical view on the flu vaccine whenever a journalist is doing a story, and he appears only too happy to oblige these days with juicy quotes.
Hes also become so attractive as a quote source because journalists tend not to like nuance. With only a limited space to say what they have to say and ubiquitous deadline pressures, explaining nuance is hard. Thats why they tend not like statements like the ones in the Cochrane Reviews co-authored by Dr. Jefferson cited above. They like concrete statements, especially if they are pith, juicy, or controversial, statements like calling the evidence base for flu vaccines rubbish and the basis for flu vaccination the flimsiest of scientific evidence. There are many reasons to be cautious when discussing the efficacy of flu vaccines and many shortcomings to how scientists make and use flu vaccines. In short, there are many legitimate issues to debate about flu vaccines and our policies for combating the H1N1 pandemic. Inflammatory statements, such as the ones Jefferson is fond of making, however, shed far more heat than light on the legitimate issues and problems surrounding vaccination against influenza and the murky evidence regarding its efficacy.