First Riviera ROFR

[muppets3d]

If you keep a Copper Creek contract until 2068, guess what your resale value is.

 

[airjay75]

I feel like some of our views on this come down to who we think the “average DVC buyer” is. And, we are all influenced by our own personal perspectives. It sort of reminds me of people who like to prognosticate on the “average swing voter” in an election and then will inevitably use it as a way to argue why their perspective on things is slightly more correct. I’m as guilty as anyone. At the end of the day, who knows what that mythical average DVC buyer looks like. All we have is the sales data.

 

[Brian Noble]

If DVC were a timeshare like others where you basically have to pay to give it away, I’m not sure I could have talked myself into it.

I bet you could have. But, more likely, you would have just picked up one of them for pennies on the secondary market. That's what I did.

Saying either people overwhelmingly don’t give resale a single thought (for either their potential sale down the road or as a way to save money on the initial buy in) or that if you have any expectations of resale value you don’t understand this is the same old timeshare as any else, is just denying any sort of practical DVC reality to just say you’re right.

I'm not debating whether or not DVC has non-trivial resale value. Of course it does.

I am taking issue with the idea that non-trivial resale value is somehow material in DVC's ability to sell timeshares. It matters at the margins. But if DVC's resale values were suddenly half of what they are today, the Guides would barely feel a bump---and the evidence is that even regular timeshares not fueled by pixie dust do it just fine, and for prices that are very similar. The sales pitch might change a bit, but that is not hard.

I suppose someone could argue that DVC buyers are just fudnamentally different from those who buy "other timeshares". But, I'd point out that that is a very self-serving argument, so I personally would tread carefully before claiming I was clever, and all those other people are rubes.

I also suppose someone could argue that DVC isn't "a regular timeshare." But I won't get into that debate, just as I do not debate the fact that the earth is round.

 

[DanCali]

We like RIV so much, I never would have thought we'd consider a resale contract. Would be a great problem to be stuck at RIV! I predict RIV resale prices to rise after direct points dry up.

I'm curious why you'd expect that?

The direct product that lets you use the points at 17 resorts (and all upcoming new resorts), trade via Interval, and gives you access to MM, lounges, cruises, discounts, and other perks. The resale product can be used at 1 resort and trade via Interval - that's it. It's like comparing a Porsche with a minivan - they are hardly substitutes for one another. It's two very different products.

If you only have the resale option - you'd have to REALLY love Riviera (or be an existing owner looking to add on) to consider that resale contract when you can buy BLT, CCV, PVB, VGF, AKV, OKW, and even AUL and have the option to visit multiple resorts in FL, CA and HI for at least the next 30-35 years. But price can be a big differentiator/equalizer - I think those 1-resort contracts would have to sell for a lot less than they are today for people to continue buying them, especially since they are all still in active sales and the number of sellers will only increase over time.

If you keep a Copper Creek contract until 2068, guess what your resale value is.

But if you buy it today, what access does it give you for the next 40 years vs. a resale 1-resort contract? if you were a resale buyer (and RIV direct was not even an option because it's sold out), which is worth more to you?

 

[davidhr]

Your point is built on a flaw: “90% plus of direct buyers have no clue about resale”.

You think “90% plus” of direct buyers DON’T ask themselves the question during the purchase consideration “What happens if I can’t afford this anymore?” or “we don’t like Disney as much for whatever reason, now what” and learn that they can sell it via resale? And then make the connection in their brain “hey if I can sell my contract, that means I can buy someone else’s too?” You think 90% plus of people don’t think about this? Of course not. Look Riviera is a beautiful resort but its resale value ALREADY suggests the restrictions have devalued its contracts. And it’s new. Wait a while and see where the price goes.

Can only speak about personal interactions: I’d say it’s more than 90%…

 

[Bo1203]

I'm curious why you'd expect that?

When direct inventory of Riviera points sells out, basic supply and demand dynamics will drive resale prices upward.

I think for an add on, especially those who already own direct points at RIV or elsewhere, resale RIV makes a lot of sense. Resort view studios require home resort advantage.

 

[Mouseforward]

When direct inventory of Riviera points sells out, basic supply and demand dynamics will drive resale prices upward.

I think for an add on, especially those who already own direct points at RIV or elsewhere, resale RIV makes a lot of sense. Resort view studios require home resort advantage.

That’s ignoring too many variables. The big variables is what happens with boardwalk and beach club. Depending on the plan with them, the price will either rise or fall at Riviera.

 

[Bo1203]

That’s ignoring too many variables. The big variables is what happens with boardwalk and beach club. Depending on the plan with them, the price will either rise or fall at Riviera.

I can assure you, I have less than 10% of the facts and zero expertise.

But no, I'm assuming RIV sells out within the next 12 months, I think resale RIV contracts bump up in price. I have no idea what happens 17 years from now.

 

[muppets3d]

But if you buy it today, what access does it give you for the next 40 years vs. a resale 1-resort contract? if you were a resale buyer (and RIV direct was not even an option because it's sold out), which is worth more to you?

It really depends on how much you like Riviera. While all of my Riviera points are direct, I wouldn't rule out a resale add-on if we decide we want to be able to book 2 or 3 bedroom villas consistently. I don't think Riviera resale would be my only DVC contract, but that's just me.

Don't forget that if you buy Copper Creek resale today, you will have an ever decreasing list of exchange opportunities as time goes on - with a dramatic reduction in exchange options in 2042.

 

[RuntheMouse]

Yeah, I very much considered the resale value when I had my first purchase back in April. I remember having the conversation with my guide after our tour at RIV and I was like, ok you’re telling me I can buy Poly without them or RIV with them? Ok, show me the Poly island tower please.

Then, I mulled it over for 7 days. Booked a 1-night cash stay at RIV. And ended up concluding, resale restrictions be damned, I want what I want!

If DVC were a timeshare like others where you basically have to pay to give it away, I’m not sure I could have talked myself into it.

I think it’s a fair bet that the vast majority of new DVC purchasers don’t do anywhere near the analysis that we on this board do. And, even if they do, they may similarly decide, I want what I want.

We were in the never will we ever camp when they first announced the restrictions at RIV. Then we toured it and have purchased direct and resale (2 different UY) I don’t trade out the direct points EVER, we just love staying there so much. Resale then became a nonissue for us because we’ll never feel “stuck” there.

It comes back to the buy where you want to stay. People throwing other resorts around that don’t have restrictions so you can trade out just don’t get that some people really just like RIV. I don’t get why everyone wants to convince people that it’s the wrong resort to buy into!

 

[tidefan]

We were in the never will we ever camp when they first announced the restrictions at RIV. Then we toured it and have purchased direct and resale (2 different UY) I don’t trade out the direct points EVER, we just love staying there so much. Resale then became a nonissue for us because we’ll never feel “stuck” there.

It comes back to the buy where you want to stay. People throwing other resorts around that don’t have restrictions so you can trade out just don’t get that some people really just like RIV. I don’t get why everyone wants to convince people that it’s the wrong resort to buy into!

Funny how this goes because we were kind of excited to see RIV when they first built it, then we stayed there and were "meh". I mean it's fine, but to me I like the renovated SSR just as much (I know, I'm weird) and it's a lot less points. Also, in another "I'm weird" moment, I know the CFW is a terrible idea, yet I've stayed there 4 times already and absolutely love it. I hope those restricted resales do plummet, because while I may not go direct on CFW, a cheap resale would definitely interest us.

 

[atthebeachclub]

Sure - but if you're starting 45% down after 10 days, it's unlikely to get much better.

I don't know about others, but I'm happier to pay $330 direct for VGC knowing I can resell it in 1-3 years for 75%-80% of that amount, than I am to pay $180 for Riviera knowing I'll be lucky to get 50% back.

I mostly agree with you, but this math is not the best example.

You tied more money up owning VGC, and getting 75% back means you lost about $82.50 per point. If you lose half of your RIV contract at $180 per point, you lost about $90 per point AND had less money tied up in the contract.

*Note this does not mean I will ever personally buy a restricted contract (caveat: would consider VDH though. Only VDH). But I similarly won't buy VGC in spite of its loveliness.

 

[Brian Noble]

I don’t get why everyone wants to convince people that it’s the wrong resort to buy into!

Part of this is that it is important to many folks that others agree with them. But I think at least part of it is that RIV "broke DVC" by being the first resort with resale restrictions, and that left a bad taste in a lot of folks' mouths.

It's okay if people do not agree with me. But, it probably took me longer than necessary to come to that conclusion. Either way, that's why Baskin-Robins has 31 flavors. Also known as: "There's a bolt for every nut."

 

[sndral]

We were in the never will we ever camp when they first announced the restrictions at RIV. Then we toured it and have purchased direct and resale (2 different UY) I don’t trade out the direct points EVER, we just love staying there so much. Resale then became a nonissue for us because we’ll never feel “stuck” there.

It comes back to the buy where you want to stay. People throwing other resorts around that don’t have restrictions so you can trade out just don’t get that some people really just like RIV. I don’t get why everyone wants to convince people that it’s the wrong resort to buy into!

I too always stay at my 2 home resorts because I have no interest in staying elsewhere, however many folks are more flexible & enjoy variety & resort switching. Although I love staying at the 2 resorts I own, not everyone feels the same way about them for a variety of reasons. Each resort has it’s pluses & minuses, I have no interest in staying at the Riviera because its bland tower exterior (I feel the same about BLT,) tiny lobby, & limited grounds are off putting to me & the Resort’s positive features like the Skyliner to 2 parks, aren’t enough to overcome what I dislike about the resort.
I haven’t read of anyone trying to convince folks not to buy at Riviera, when anyone asks I see the normal pluses & minuses of the resort discussed like you get whenever anyone seeks advice about buying any DVC resort & warnings about its reduced economic value due to the restrictions &, if resale, lack of flexibility, just like folks point out the high MFs at VB, or the 2042 end dates at BWV & BC, etc..

 

[DanCali]

When direct inventory of Riviera points sells out, basic supply and demand dynamics will drive resale prices upward.

That works both ways though...

The resort is barely 5 years old. Arguably not a lot of sellers now with average ownership length of ~3 years (some bought last year, some bought 5 years ago). There will be a lot more inventory on the market in 4-6 years, once more original owners who bought earlier on sell for natural reasons like kids growing up, geographic move etc.

 

[muppets3d]

You have to figure that once Riviera sells out, the price in resale will stabilize if not increase since buying direct won't be as realistic of an option anymore since Disney will hike the price and cut incentives, except for periodic sales judging by other resorts.

 

[atthebeachclub]

I think price of Riviera, like just about every other resale DVC for the past five years, will drop once it stops active sales.

 

[eticketplease]

At the end of the day, who knows what that mythical average DVC buyer looks like.

Maybe we will start getting stickers similar to this when we buy our contracts to identify us.

 

[Mouseforward]

It really depends on how much you like Riviera. While all of my Riviera points are direct, I wouldn't rule out a resale add-on if we decide we want to be able to book 2 or 3 bedroom villas consistently. I don't think Riviera resale would be my only DVC contract, but that's just me.

Don't forget that if you buy Copper Creek resale today, you will have an ever decreasing list of exchange opportunities as time goes on - with a dramatic reduction in exchange options in 2042.

The real issue is people who like being a non bus distance from Epcot. I do not care about being close to MK I go there once and I can even see myself skipping it on short trips. I go to Epcot most days for a snack or meal. In 2042 no matter what resale you purchase now you lose the Epcot area option.

Purchasing resale RIV is a reasonable low cost option if you are under 50 y/o and have a $15k budget to spend and want to go to WDW a week. Over the long haul it will be the Epcot low cost option. It is currently priced the same as BW with an additional 28 years of use.

 

[eticketplease]

I think price of Riviera, like just about every other resale DVC for the past five years, will drop once it stops active sales.

Where are you getting this from? Most prices are above the prices when Disney was offering the properties for sale.