Fire sale, now and then

[Adopted By Disney]

I hear often how VGF had a direct fire sale in summer 2023 and people seem to want to wait to buy or are hoping for another fire sale like promotion in the future.

People talked about how the fire sale brought the per point amount to $161 but didn’t really break it down. After looking into it and breaking it down it feels like that type of per point purchase is unlikely to happen again due to a few factors. Mainly the starting per point purchase was $217 for VGF and magical beginnings was $22 per point. So my question is what would seem like a fire sale at this point, with the starting per point purchase being $235 and magical beginnings being $20 per point now would it be around $180?

VGF breakdown for current members 2023
217 x 150 ‎ = 32,550
-3585 $23 discount current member
-1500 welcome home
-3300 magical b $22 per point
$24165 161 per point

217 x 200 ‎ = 43,400
-5170 $25 discount current member
-1500 welcome home
-4400 mb $22 per point
$32330 161 per point

Now the most recent promotion gets Riv down to $183.5 for 200 points. It was a similar promotion to VGF 2023 but with a higher starting point and lower magical beginnings that seems to be the difference.

Riv breakdown for current members
150 x 235
-500 d23
-1000 ap
-1800 $12 per point discount
-3000 mb
= $28950 / $193 a point

200 x 235
-500 d23
-1000 ap
-4800 $24 per point discount
-4000 MB
= $36700 / $183.5 a point

So for 200 points if you make the starting point at 217 and magical beginnings at $22 per point like VGF in 2023 it would be $163.5 per point which seems really good.

Essentially what would be considered a fire sale at this point, it seems like if you can get down to $180 per point that’s pretty good.

Interested to hear your guys thoughts

 

[Cfabar1]

Seeing this reminds me what a mistake I made to buy the 150 instead of the 200!

I agree we are unlikely to see direct at $161 pp again for actively selling resorts.

Well maybe Aulani if the circumstances were right...

 

[tx911]

I'd consider $185pp for 150 points a fire sale now. But it would be hard to get there. That's 50 off per point with a $235 starting price.

 

[Adopted By Disney]

Seeing this reminds me what a mistake I made to buy the 150 instead of the 200!

I agree we are unlikely to see direct at $161 pp again for actively selling resorts.

Well maybe Aulani if the circumstances were right...

poly isn’t there yet with the pricing and Riv at 200 points seems to be an okay deal at this point comparatively. Only really considering Poly and Riv in this as aulani and the cabins aren’t really too enticing

 

[Mouseforward]

Seeing this reminds me what a mistake I made to buy the 150 instead of the 200!

I agree we are unlikely to see direct at $161 pp again for actively selling resorts.

Well maybe Aulani if the circumstances were right...

I still regret that I went 250 instead of 300 at RIV in 2022 during the great deal. I know I am going to end up buying 50 at rack rates one day.....

 

[D-Trick]

I wouldn't classify 2023 $161 VGF as a fire sale, and you've done the math to show that it's not much different from today's discounts given the base prices.

Last year's OKW down to as low as $95p/p? THAT was a fire sale. Just ask @DonkeyHoTay

 

[PolyRob]

The $161.10 was enticing because it was enough for new members or resale only members to get all the direct benefits at a non-restricted resort. (PVB IT was up in the air)

Summer and fall UYs also provided all the points available to any Big Pine Key purchaser from day one, but over a year later with over $1k savings in dues.

VGF is also priced much, much higher than RIV on the resale market so you were essentially getting VGF for resale prices, but direct.

Look at ROFR for VGF today. You have contracts being taken for more $161.10.

 

[AstroBlasters]

I hear often how VGF had a direct fire sale in summer 2023 and people seem to want to wait to buy or are hoping for another fire sale like promotion in the future.

People talked about how the fire sale brought the per point amount to $161 but didn’t really break it down. After looking into it and breaking it down it feels like that type of per point purchase is unlikely to happen again due to a few factors. Mainly the starting per point purchase was $217 for VGF and magical beginnings was $22 per point. So my question is what would seem like a fire sale at this point, with the starting per point purchase being $235 and magical beginnings being $20 per point now would it be around $180?

VGF breakdown for current members 2023
217 x 150 ‎ = 32,550
-3585 $23 discount current member
-1500 welcome home
-3300 magical b $22 per point
$24165 161 per point

217 x 200 ‎ = 43,400
-5170 $25 discount current member
-1500 welcome home
-4400 mb $22 per point
$32330 161 per point

Now the most recent promotion gets Riv down to $183.5 for 200 points. It was a similar promotion to VGF 2023 but with a higher starting point and lower magical beginnings that seems to be the difference.

Riv breakdown for current members
150 x 235
-500 d23
-1000 ap
-1800 $12 per point discount
-3000 mb
= $28950 / $193 a point

200 x 235
-500 d23
-1000 ap
-4800 $24 per point discount
-4000 MB
= $36700 / $183.5 a point

So for 200 points if you make the starting point at 217 and magical beginnings at $22 per point like VGF in 2023 it would be $163.5 per point which seems really good.

Essentially what would be considered a fire sale at this point, it seems like if you can get down to $180 per point that’s pretty good.

Interested to hear your guys thoughts

I got 200 Aulani direct points (2x100 contracts) in January 2023 for a $39pp discount that included the previous year 2022 March UY points banked into the new 2023 UY.

Base was $217pp. So, $178pp without magical beginnings…. I could have rented them out for $20pp, but I wanted to use them….

https://dvcfan.com/general-dvc/holiday-2022-disney-vacation-club-incentives/i

 

[Sandisw]

With MB, and all the current incentives, they were ably to get RiV to $183 for 200 points when on the Disney dream in May.

I didn’t buy but it was tempting since this was my June UY….so I was selling back 2024 points.

 

[airjay75]

Running the math on my recent 300 point purchase (with the Feb-Apr 2025 incentives). With magical beginnings, Disney Visa $1k promotion, $500 referral, and $29 incentive, looks like my pp price was $181. I guess I did pretty good! Wasn't really thinking about it in these terms when I purchased.

 

[achinforsomebacon]

The $161.10 was enticing because it was enough for new members or resale only members to get all the direct benefits at a non-restricted resort. (PVB IT was up in the air)

Summer and fall UYs also provided all the points available to any Big Pine Key purchaser from day one, but over a year later with over $1k savings in dues.

VGF is also priced much, much higher than RIV on the resale market so you were essentially getting VGF for resale prices, but direct.

Look at ROFR for VGF today. You have contracts being taken for more $161.10.

I think this is key. I'm pretty sure RIV got into the high 160s at the same time after MB but VGF was perceived to be a much better value and "fire-sale" since it was basically at resale prices, even with 6 fewer years than RIV. Lack of resale restrictions certainly didn't hurt VGF either.

 

[Adopted By Disney]

The $161.10 was enticing because it was enough for new members or resale only members to get all the direct benefits at a non-restricted resort. (PVB IT was up in the air)

Summer and fall UYs also provided all the points available to any Big Pine Key purchaser from day one, but over a year later with over $1k savings in dues.

VGF is also priced much, much higher than RIV on the resale market so you were essentially getting VGF for resale prices, but direct.

Look at ROFR for VGF today. You have contracts being taken for more $161.10.

No doubt overall it was a great deal with the benefits that come with it being VGF with no restrictions and resale value along with that per point at 150 points. Just curious what would a fire sale look like now. Sounds like maybe $180 per point at PIT? PIT would be simular to VGF in terms of resale value and no restrictions

 

[Cfabar1]

I wouldn't classify 2023 $161 VGF as a fire sale, and you've done the math to show that it's not much different from today's discounts given the base prices.

Last year's OKW down to as low as $95p/p? THAT was a fire sale. Just ask @DonkeyHoTay

I think it more had to do with the ppp for the size of contract... wasn't the OKW sale 1000 points to get the $95?

 

[Cfabar1]

No doubt overall it was a great deal with the benefits that come with it being VGF with no restrictions and resale value along with that per point at 150 points. Just curious what would a fire sale look like now. Sounds like maybe $180 per point at PIT? PIT would be simular to VGF in terms of resale value and no restrictions

Rationally it would need to be about $161 +/- inflation over two years....

So yeah, around $175-$180 would be the equivalent...

But... part of the appeal was the pricing discrepancy between resale and direct...

at the time VGF was going for about $140-160 at the time it was selling resale... I remember talking with a broker at the time and saying I'd go up to $159 and not a penny more about a contract... forget the details about it...

PVB last month according to the board sponsor (for whatever that's worth) was right around $160...

Meanwhile VGF average resale price last month was $162...

So take those numbers and craft whatever narrative makes sense...

 

[davidhr]

I think this is key. I'm pretty sure RIV got into the high 160s at the same time after MB but VGF was perceived to be a much better value and "fire-sale" since it was basically at resale prices, even with 6 fewer years than RIV. Lack of resale restrictions certainly didn't hurt VGF either.

Yes. I got Riviera during that sale because I like it more. It’s was like $8 more per point.

I still regret not getting more points that time.

 

[atthebeachclub]

For me, a fire sale is all about the ratio of direct/resale price, not direct full price/direct discounted price. I think I would start considering direct strongly at about 1.4 times the cost of resale.

 

[GrumpyInPhilly]

I still regret that I went 250 instead of 300 at RIV in 2022 during the great deal. I know I am going to end up buying 50 at rack rates one day.....

I have seen others here (@drusba ?) say that 250 pts is the upper limit of a medium sized contract and that 300 would be considered a large contract. So if you ever sell, you should get a better price for that contract. I have three contracts - 150, 200 & 250 pts. Didn't want to go above 250 for a single contract and I liked have settlement costs only three times to get to 600 pts.

 

[D-Trick]

I think it more had to do with the ppp for the size of contract... wasn't the OKW sale 1000 points to get the $95?

Yes, that is correct.

How I see it: one of the least desirable resorts sold with incentives at a price that was so good that it actually ran out of inventory quicker than anyone had anticipated.

Don't get me wrong, $161 is still a fantastic price for VGF, but it was always going to sell out eventually even with lower incentives. That's why I don't see it as a fire sale per say. Whereas the OKW inventory? It would have sat there in DVC's books for years without much change if not for the sale.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Yes, that is correct.

How I see it: one of the least desirable resorts sold with incentives at a price that was so good that it actually ran out of inventory quicker than anyone had anticipated.

Don't get me wrong, $161 is still a fantastic price for VGF, but it was always going to sell out eventually even with lower incentives. That's why I don't see it as a fire sale per se. Whereas the OKW inventory? It would have sat there in DVC's books for years without much change if not for the sale.

And it was all sold as extended contracts and gave them cash to ROFR more 2042s….

 

[Sandisw]

And it was all sold as extended contracts and gave them cash to ROFR more 2042s….

Plus, fewer potential owners to deal with come 2042!!