Fantasy Land Expansion - BLT impact

[disney0505]

Any thoughts of what the impact of the Fantasy Land expansion will have on BLT pricing? I could see Disney raising BLT and monorail resort prices once the expansion has been completed.

 

[iwrbnd]

I was thinking that, too!

 

[smjj]

Not saying it won't but I doubt it has any effect on BLT pricing at all...smjj

 

[cricketjamest]

I would guess the expansion might also make BLT more popular and harder to make a reservation.

 

[tjkraz]

Not saying it won't but I doubt it has any effect on BLT pricing at all...smjj

I agree.

The market will largely determine prices. If demand for points (or cash reservations at the CR) goes up, prices will go up. If this economy has demonstrated anything it's that Disney can't force hotel prices down people's throats. They can't arbitrarily decide that CR rooms are worth more, raise prices, and expect guests to happily pay more.

In all likelihood points at BLT will be sold out long before much comes of the Fantasyland expansion.

I tend to think that most trends have an ebb and flow to them. The expansion may alter some people's plans for making reservations but it remains to be seen whether those trends will hold up in the long run. Kids grow older. Empty nesters may not see a lot of value in the expansion. A 15-20 minute car or bus ride to the MK isn't exactly the end of the world to many people. And this Fantasyland expansion certainly won't be the last construction project at Walt Disney World--other parks will add their own appealing attractions in years to come, which will shift demand yet again.

 

[spiceycat]

disney has to do something. once harry potter opens at US/IOA - they will definitely get a cut of the business.

 

[dburg30]

disney has to do something. once harry potter opens at US/IOA - they will definitely get a cut of the business.

Of course they will get some more business at US, but I dont see many people spending more then a day or 2 if it's just for HP. Heck they could gain also, people that want to see HP may also say "Hey, we've never been to WDW, let's spend a day or 2 there". I really dont see it changing WDW traffic very much.

 

[auntsue]

We've never been to US and we've been to Disney about 30 times, but the HP attraction has me thinking of going. I just bought Beyond Disney Unofficial Guide to look into it. I almost feel like a traitor, but I wouldn't cut back my DVC trips, I'd just add two nights over at US to one of them.

 

[robertdangelo]

We have done US. We refer to them and other Theme Park companies as "Disney Wannabees"! Our DD turns 2 in april... she visited DL at 14 months, WDW at 20 months and will return later this year. We're excited about the Fantasyland expansion. DL was a great 1st Disney Park experience for her because of Fantasyland. There are many attractions there that haven't been duplicated or no longer exist at WDW.

 

[briarwolf]

I would tend to agree with tjkraz on this. Although I think there will be an initial spike in MK traffic due to the expansion, I think BLT will most likely be sold out by then anyway.

 

[WilsonFlyer]

We have done US. We refer to them and other Theme Park companies as "Disney Wannabees"! Our DD turns 2 in april... she visited DL at 14 months, WDW at 20 months and will return later this year. We're excited about the Fantasyland expansion. DL was a great 1st Disney Park experience for her because of Fantasyland. There are many attractions there that haven't been duplicated or no longer exist at WDW.

Don't forget that (from what I have read and heard) HPL was built mostly by ex Disney Imagineers that had been laid off. I'm sure they went there with a chip on their shoulders and a bone to pick and I would further bet that they told Universal going in "Blank check and it will be better than Disney." Universal bellied-up-to-the-bar and my bet is the Imagineers did too.

Don't underestimate this new world just yet until we actually see it. US knows what they have to compete with. At the end of the day, it's all about business and US knows it too.

My bet is that HPL will blow our minds. I think the real test will be the test of time. I just don't believe that HP has the staying power over the long haul of a classic Disney animation movie but we shall see. I'll tell you what. It was a helluva gamble from what I've seen of the hype if it doesn't pay dividends over the long term.

 

[Brian Noble]

What I've heard is that Forbidden Journey will live up to the hype. That said, I think Fantasy Forest might too.

Competition is good. To be honest, I see the two expansions targeting different markets; my kids at 9 and 11 already won't much care about More Princesses, and they will care even less by the time it opens. But, they are already very very geeked for Potterland.

I just don't believe that HP has the staying power over the long haul of a classic Disney animation movie but we shall see.

I don't see why not. New generations will keep reading the books, just as has been true for classic books through the ages. What's more, most of the "classic animation" kid-fans were raised that way; it's not like anyone under the age of 10 is clamoring to see Snow White in the theaters; their parents bring them home. The *parents* read the HP books as much as the kids did, and today's kids are going to remember where they were when they read Deathly Hallows for the first time, and may well want to recreate that for their kids. None of the movies was earth-shaking, but each one has done at lest $250M worth of business. And, the movies just build on the books.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

I actually see the Fantasyland refurb having a big impact on BLT. This attraction will mainly attract young children. Nothing like walking back to BLT for that afternoon nap. BLT ia already getting hard to book during F&W. I think the Micky Very Scary Halloween Party( or what ever it's called) has played a big part in the occupancy. Add the new Fantasyland, I say one will need to be an owner.

 

[La2kw]

I doubt if one new ride and a bunch of character meet and greets is going to make much of an impact.

 

[robertdangelo]

I think the Fantasyland expansion is a step in the right direction. Especially doubling the capacity of Dumbo. This will enhance the experience for those with young children & those younng at heart.

I feel that EPCOT needs another attraction. I hope the rumors are correct and the former Wonders of Life get refurbished with new attractions.

 

[tjkraz]

I just don't believe that HP has the staying power over the long haul of a classic Disney animation movie but we shall see.

I look at it from a different angle and question whether the Universal name can carry the attractions.

I'm sure the HP area will be very well done. But they've had Spider-Man for a decade now and it didn't make much of a dent in Disney's business. Spider-Man is an even more beloved property by most measures (years being published, film box office, etc.) and there's a constant stream of new Spider-Man content to build upon. Not to mention that the IOA attraction is one of the most highly regarded in the theme park industry. For something like 5 years straight industry groups voted Spider-Man the best themed attraction in the world--better than any Disney attraction.

Yet look at where US is today.

Same could be said for properties like The Simpsons and Dr. Seuss. For the most part, The Mummy is better than Everest or Rock N Rollercoaster. Men in Black is superior to Buzz Lightyear.

There will certainly be a lot of people checking out HP, but I'm not certain that the initial spurt can be sustained...particularly if there is no new HP content forthcoming after the final two films.

People slight WDW parks like Hollywood Studios and DAK for being "half-day" parks. How many are going to regularly venture to US for one new attraction, a couple of re-themed coasters and some shops & restaurants?

Selfishly I hope Disney does take one on the chin so that it will prompt them to make some additional investments. But history has proven Universal unsuccessful making much of a dent in Disney's business with these flashy licensing deals.

 

[Brian Noble]

it didn't make much of a dent in Disney's business

But, as I alluded to above, I think they appeal to different markets. UO/IOA may not have made much of a dent, but it still draws well. We haven't gotten the 2009 numbers yet (and UO/IOA dropped about 12% in '09 from what I've read), but they pulled almost 12M guests combined in 2008. That's not Disney's 46M, but it's not half bad.

My 11 year old daughter hasn't been to UO/IOA yet, but given the choice between Sea World and any disney park, she'd rather go to SWO and power-ride Kraken and (especially) Manta. And, frankly, I thought SWO was fantastically well-done; we really enjoyed our day there, and are looking forward to a return visit. My guess is that once she's been to UO/IOA (next February), she'll probably start agitating for less Disney and more Universal.

Potterland is likewise; it appeals to a slightly older demographic (in terms of kids) than Disney does. That brings more people overall to Central Florida, and that's good for *both* resorts---because folks coming primarily for one thing will make a side trip for the other.

 

[nolanboys]

I think the Fantasyland expansion is a step in the right direction. Especially doubling the capacity of Dumbo. This will enhance the experience for those with young children & those younng at heart.

I feel that EPCOT needs another attraction. I hope the rumors are correct and the former Wonders of Life get refurbished with new attractions.

Epcot is my favorite park. So I agree that they need another big attraction there. They have that space. I wish they'd put it to good use!

 

[hlyntunstl]

Of course they will get some more business at US, but I dont see many people spending more then a day or 2 if it's just for HP. Heck they could gain also, people that want to see HP may also say "Hey, we've never been to WDW, let's spend a day or 2 there". I really dont see it changing WDW traffic very much.

When IOA first opened, we planned on spending 2 days there. We finished both US and IOA in one day and the only reason we returned for day two was that we purchased a two day pass. This change just affects one section of one park. I think there will be a big increase in IOA traffic but add me to those who think the impact to WDW will be minor. That said, I hope this will push WDW to look into more thrill ride options.

 

[tjkraz]

But, as I alluded to above, I think they appeal to different markets. UO/IOA may not have made much of a dent, but it still draws well. We haven't gotten the 2009 numbers yet (and UO/IOA dropped about 12% in '09 from what I've read), but they pulled almost 12M guests combined in 2008. That's not Disney's 46M, but it's not half bad.

I agree, Brian. I didn't mean to totally discount Universal, Busch Gardens, Sea World or any of the other parks. They have their fans and I do think that US can only gain from the Potter addition.

What I meant to say is that I don't necessarily see Potter as being the big game-changer some are suggesting. It will attract new business but much of that could be WDW vacationers adding a day or two to their trips to check out US/IOA. The initial curiosity factor will definitely be at play, but I have reservations about how things will play out beyond the first couple of years and whether Disney will be negatively impacted.